"If liberty means anything at all, it means the right to tell people what they do not want to hear" - George Orwell

Intelligence Briefing for the 21st May 2002
 
Iran; at last the real enemy appears
 
Finally it seems that the truth is dawning upon the US Government that the Afghanistan campaign has been a mere sideshow, chasing 'penny-packets' of terrorists in Somalia, Yemen and the Philippines a dangerous distraction and that Iraq is not the main enemy. Iran has moved to centre stage and can be seen as the most divisive and dangerous force in the Middle East. The only really surprising thing about this Washington revelation is that along with a very few other expert intelligence sources, the analysts at AFI Research and RBMedia have clearly and repeatedly made that point numerous times over the last year.
 
Examples of this were first published on the 26th April 2001 in Tensions in Middle East Rise: Iran stirs the Middle Eastern Cauldron!  AFI reported;
 
The Palestinian Intifada is set to be fuelled by more external interference and a fresh supply of arms - this time from Iran.  The Palestinian Security forces have received considerable quantities of Iraqi arms in recent months, but this may be as nothing compared to the re-equipment threatened by the Mullahs in Iran. In an apparent attempt to further undermine Yasser Arafats waning influence, Iran is offering the disparate insurgent groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah and the Islamic Jihad operating against Israel within the occupied territories experienced fighters, equipment and training, much as they did for the Bosnian Muslim forces and later the Kosovan Liberation army in the conflicts which ravaged the former Yugoslavia.  The prospect of even helping Tanzim, the armed wing of Fatah, is now on the agenda and poses a huge threat to the present leadership of the Palestinian Authority.
 
Iran has in turn built a close relationship with Syria, even at a time of a growing Syrian-Iraqi military alliance. It would seem that Iraq is not prepared to allow the recent missile attacks on its territory in which the Iranians fired over 80 Scud's at Iranian dissident forces, to serious slow down the growth of a new 'understanding in an increasingly pragmatic Middle East Israel, as recently as the 23rd March 2001, complained bitterly about a massive airlift of Iranian hardware into Syria and the Lebanon. It has created a quantum increase in the firepower of Hezbollah,  with the delivery of over 1000 107mm and 122mm 'Katyusha' rockets with ranges of 20 km or more and in addition the modified bombardment rocket system known as the Fajr with a range of more than 40 km. Large supplies of Sagger anti-tank missiles, anti-tank mines and anti-aircraft weapons have also arrived. Prime Minister Sharon said recently that "Iran....has sent to the Lebanon enormous shipments of missiles capable of hitting the centre of Israel"  and went on to comment that this has been achieved "through a massive airlift, the likes of which we have not seen in the past" Sharon called this "a very dangerous development".
 
We are pleased to point out that AFI Research was one of the few leading news sources to draw attention to both the increase in the amounts of Iraqi weapons reaching the Palestinians and the dramatic airlift of Iranian arms to Hezbollah.......for unexplained reasons this was hardly covered by the US and UK news media.
 
The Briefing on the 3rd January 2002 entitled Iran in no doubt - they are a target for the USA  AFI reported;
 
Judged on the basis of Brigadier Zolqadr's comments and other reports from sources in the Gulf, Iran believes it will eventually become a target for US military action and is busily dispersing and hardening command, control and other important elements of its defence infrastructure. Iran has also embarked on a major upgrading of its air defence systems with considerable help from the Chinese and possibly the Yugoslavs, in an attempt to develop a reasonably effective anti-Stealth defence capability.  Iranian defence analysts have tried hard to learn the lessons of the successful US campaigns in Iraq, Kosovo and Afghanistan. They can expect the full support of Russia, despite the apparent warming of relations between Moscow and the West, and indeed supplies of advanced Russians weapons have increased markedly in recent months.
 
Iran has played a very quiet game since September 11th. It has ensured that its preferred Afghan tribe established control of the area around Herat and has managed to deflect Western media attention away from its involvement with international terrorism and even the probable part played in the attack on the United States by Iran's own sponsored terrorist group, Hezbollah. Iran is also aware of the growing disenchantment amongst Middle Eastern countries with the prospect of a major and permanent US military presence in the region. Support may indeed grow quickly for a tough stand by Tehran against any US demands to stop its support for the Lebanon based terrorist group, particularly as suggestions surface that a joint US-Israeli assault on Iraq may be discussed with the Israeli Chiefs of Staff when General Richard Myers, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff of the US armed forces visits the region on January 15th.
 
And most importantly on the 16th January 2002 AFI in the Briefing Is Iran secretly at war with America? reported;
 
Evidence from CIA sources suggest that Osama Bin-Laden is something of a front and that the real driving force behind the recent appalling attacks on the United States rests elsewhere. While Pakistan provided massive military,intelligence and financial support for his Taliban hosts, little of this reached Bin-Laden. Yet he obtained passports, documentation and a lot of other support that could only have come from an organized and bureaucratic source. AFI believes that Bin-Laden is a front and not only for the other international members of Islamic Jihad, which is so much more than just Al Qa'ida.  Terror has been Iran's stock in trade for more than twenty years and Bin-Laden is a willing partner in a secret war that Tehran is believed to have declared on the United States six years ago. In mid 1997 Bin-Laden was already deep in talks with senior officers from the Pasdaran's Special Operations department and the Qods Force.  This group is responsible for extraterritorial operations, including terrorist operations and training Islamic fundamentalist terrorist groups. The Qods Force is also responsible for gathering the intelligence required for targeting and attack planning. It has contacts with underground movements in the Gulf region, in particular Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates and its members are assigned to Iranian diplomatic missions, where, in the course of routine intelligence activities they monitor dissidents.

The largest branch of Pasdaran foreign operations consists of approximately 12,000 Arabic speaking Iranians, Afghans, Iraqis, Lebanese Shi'ites and North Africans who trained in Iran or received training in Afghanistan during the Afghan war years. Presently these foreign operatives receive training in Iran, Sudan and Lebanon, and include the Hizbollah "Party of Allah" intelligence, logistics and operational terrorist units in the Lebanon. Pasdaran foreign operations also involve training and arming Kurdish groups, Kashmiri’s, the Balouchi’s, Afghans, Bosnians and the Kosovan separatists. The Pasdaran has also supported the establishment of Hizbollah branches in Iraqi Kurdistan, Jordan, Somalia, Sudan and Palestine and the Islamic Jihad terrorists in many other Muslim countries including Egypt, Turkey, Chechnya, Kosvo and in Caucasia. The obvious over-lap of the areas of interest between the Iranian sponsored terrorist groups and those of Osama Bin-Laden's Islamic Jihad movement which has at least twelve separate groups including Al Qa'ida, is so considerable that close co-operation between the two is certain. Iran is suspected of harbouring many of the Al Qa'ida fighters who fled from Afghanistan long before anti-Taliban and US Special forces finally arrived in the area of their training camps. While other Al Qa'ida have almost certainly flown on from Tehran to Syria and then crossed into the Lebanon to join Hizbollah forces in the Beka'a valley.

Hezbollah has been implicated in the counterfeiting of U.S. dollars and European currencies, both to finance its operations and to provide assistance to other Islamic terrorist groups. The Iranian VEVAK national intelligence service supports terrorist operations and co-operates with Muslim fundamentalist movements such as Islamic Jihad and Al Qa'ida. The VEVAK Special Operations Department has also conducted terrorist operations in support of Iranian objectives and against Iranian dissidents. VEVAK supported Mujahedeen units have assisted in the training of selected Bosnian army elements since 1993 and along with Osama Bin-Laden's Al Qa'ida organization played a major role in supporting and arming the Muslim Albanian separatists of the KLA in the Yugoslav province of Kosovo in 1998-99.

AFI and Richard Bennett Media are happy to stand by the view regularly expressed in the material submitted to the world's News Media, that Iran has long been the driving force behind international terrorism and with its close ally Syria should have been held responsible for many terrorist atrocities including the Lockerbie bombing. Iran is a heavily armed and dangerous opponent, its forces are well trained and motivated. Iran can and will fight and just how the United States could or will carry out its boast that it will take on and defeat those countries that actively support terrorism when it comes to Iran, is very much open to question.

Richard M. Bennett and Dr James Hawker

*Comprehensive and expert AFI Research reports are now available on Iran's armed forces and in particular its missile systems and WMD, contact RBMedia for details.

*As the military situation becomes more critical in Kashmir, AFI can provide comprehensive coverage, expert articles and Research reports on the Indian and Pakistan armed forces, orbat and weapons, contact RBMedia for details.

*The armed forces of Iran, India and Pakistan are also covered in detail in FIGHTING FORCES, while the Intelligence Services are given comprehensive coverage in ESPIONAGE due to be published by Virgin in the UK on June 6th and in the USA on July 1st, both are written by Richard M. Bennett
 
 
 

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Richard M. Bennett is the author of FIGHTING FORCES a review of the worlds leading Armies, including many in the Middle East, published in September 2001 and is available from Barrons of New York  www.barronseduc.com  ISBN 0-7641-5343-9  and the forthcoming ESPIONAGE An encyclopedia of Spies and Secrets, which will be available from Virgin Books later this year.

Richard Bennett Media also provides coverage of specialist domestic Political, Social, and Law & Order issues and acts as consultants for international Film and TV Companies on military and espionage history. If quoting from this Media Briefing in anyway, please ensure that you credit Richard Bennett Media at all times

The AFI Research website lists many of our Associates and Contributors including  'America goes to War' at Orbat.com  and the defence coverage of Milnet.com.

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