"If liberty means anything at all, it means the right to tell people what they do not want to hear" - George Orwell

War clouds loom over Kashmir
 
There are increasing indications from both defence and political sources in India that the military stand-off in Kashmir may not survive much longer. Angered at Pakistan's unwillingness to take decisive action against the Islamic militants blamed for a wave of attacks on India, the Government in New Delhi is less certain to heed the pleas for restraint from President Bush and Prime Minister Blair. Indeed, many Indian officials privately blame Washington's support for a Pakistan regime with a long track record of supporting the Taliban in Afghanistan and Islamic separatist groups in Kashmir for the continuing terrorist campaign that has played such a major part in fomenting the present crisis.
 
The United States has chosen to turn a blind eye to Pakistan's role in supporting terrorism and indeed its appalling human rights record in return for the limited support provided by Islamabad for the campaign in Afghanistan and abandoning its Taliban allies, at least in public. However, a serious conflict on the sub-continent could seriously jeopardise US planning and future military operations in the region and undermine many of the changes so far wrought in Afghanistan.
 
India has valid economic reasons not to allow the present situation to continue. New Delhi cannot scale down its enormous military commitment in Kashmir while the present terrorist campaign continues, but more importantly the Government of Mr Vajpayee cannot continue to sustain the huge financial drain on an already fragile Indian economy of this level of preparedness. In the absence of any reasonable hope of a viable settlement there appears to be good reasons to opt for a swift and overwhelmingly decisive military campaign to destroy the network of Islamic separatist camps just across the Line of Control in Pakistan administered Kashmir.
 
India may be willing to risk a wider war
 
While this must carry with it the inherent risk of a wider conventional conflict between the two heavily armed States, there are many in India who would find this preferable to a prolonged continuation of the Kashmir conflict which has already claimed the lives of over 50,000 of their fellow citizens and its enormous economic cost to India itself. The US and Europe are rightly concerned about the risk of a drift from conventional to nuclear conflict, but if the Government in New Delhi chooses to ignore their fears then they have no-one to blame but themselves for the support they have given to Pakistan over the years because of its firm anti-Communist stand and in spite of its support for terrorism against India.
 
India has the same right as the United States to defend itself against Islamic terrorists, recently given further legitimacy by the assault on the parliament building in New Delhi. This time there appears to be a growing realization that the Government of Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee may be about to dramatically exercise that right. The Indian Leader told front-line troops in the disputed territory of Kashmir to prepare for a "decisive battle" against the Islamic insurgents. He added "Be prepared for sacrifices, but our aim should be victory, because it's now time for a decisive fight"
 
The Indian High Command appears confident that its forces can achieve an eventual victory in Kashmir, though additional air combat units and naval forces in the Arabian Sea are being moved into position in case the conflict widens into a general war with Pakistan. Pakistan is determined to resist any such attack in Kashmir and indeed President Musharraf's political future may hang on his handling of this present crisis. Widely criticized in the Pakistan armed forces and Intelligence services for abandoning his long time Taliban allies, any further backing away from a commitment to the Islamic separatist cause in Kashmir could seriously undermine his regime and see power in Islamabad pass into the hands of fundamentalist military officers with incalculable effects on the region and Washington's hopes of finally defeating the threat of Islamic terrorism.
 
Richard M. Bennett

AFI Research has a range of highly detailed Military Intelligence reports which are constantly updated, covering the Armies, Air Forces, Nuclear, Chemical and Biological Warfare capability, Missile Systems and Intelligence services of both India and Pakistan. These cover orbat, weapons, targets and likely tactics in any conflict.  Contact RBMedia for details.

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Richard M. Bennett is the author of FIGHTING FORCES a review of the worlds leading Armies, including many in the Middle East, published in September 2001 and is available from Barrons of New York  www.barronseduc.com  ISBN 0-7641-5343-9  and the forthcoming ESPIONAGE An encyclopedia of Spies and Secrets, which will be available from Virgin Books later this year.

Richard Bennett Media also provides coverage of specialist domestic Political, Social, and Law & Order issues and acts as consultants for international Film and TV Companies on military and espionage history. If quoting from this Media Briefing in anyway, please ensure that you credit Richard Bennett Media at all times

The AFI Research website lists many of our Associates and Contributors including  'America goes to War' at Orbat.com  and the defence coverage of Milnet.com.

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