'ESPIONAGE - An Encyclopedia of Spies and Secrets' The first major new reference to the worlds intelligence services to be published since the tragedy of 9-11
 
"A BRILLIANT WORK AND THOROUGHLY ENJOYABLE AS WELL AS AUTHORITATIVE"  EyeSpy Magazine
Published TODAY by Virgin Books at £20.00.  Written by Richard M. Bennett. Contact RBMedia for an interview.
 
AFI Research Intelligence Briefing for the 6th June 2002
 
Al Qa'ida as bloodthirsty as ever
 
The leaders of Al Qa'ida or Qa`idat al-Jihad, appear to be convinced that they have effectively won the first round of their war with the United States. Having carried out appalling acts of terrorism in the heart of America, they have survived the considerable efforts made by the United States and their allies to destroy them. While their safe haven with its training bases and support infrastructure has been lost, most of its leading personnel, important equipment and the majority of its combat-ready terrorists had been safely evacuated from Afghanistan in the weeks before 9-11. The large numbers of foreign fighters encountered serving alongside the Taliban are mainly Muslim volunteers, perhaps recruited by Islamic Jihad's many overseas contacts, but not strictly speaking true Al Qa'ida fighters.
 
There is little doubt that the Al Qa'ida leadership was seriously inconvenienced by the ferocity and scope of the United States response. Plans for a quick follow-up to the 9-11 were certainly disrupted, though not abandoned. Al Qa'ida were forced to go to ground and replan, however their tight cell structure and deep penetration of American and European society has survived largely intact and indeed the Islamic terrorists have learnt a good deal about Western security methods and operations in recent months, knowledge they are sure to put to use in planning future attacks.
 
Islamic terrorists are sophisticated and politically aware
 
Al Qa'ida's plans were always for a prolonged campaign and their largely Algerian and Egyptian leadership are a determined and dedicated group of terrorists, far more realistic about the enemy they face in Western democracy than many observers believe. The real leadership is sophisticated and politically aware and indeed far removed from the simplistic and fanatic beliefs that appear to be the driving force behind those publicly identified so far as suicide bombers and hijackers.
 
Al Qa'ida as part of Islamic Jihad, a multi-national terrorist organization, has achieved huge notoriety but is in the long run probably less dangerous to the West than the numerous links that have been constructed with terrorist groups from the Philippines, to Kashmir, to Egypt, Europe and Latin America. Other major Islamic militant groups including Hamas, Hezbollah and the Chechens have successfully built an international network of terrorists cells, informers and financial support, while the internationalization of local terrorist groups such as ETA, the Real IRA and PIRA, right-wing and neo-fascists groups in Britain, France, Italy, Germany, Poland, the Baltic states and in the Balkans is causing justified and growing concern in the main Western security organizations.
 
'Prime-time terrorism' on the way
 
It is unlikely to be much longer before Al Qa'ida or its terrorist allies show their hand again, and it is unrealistic to expect that they will automatically attempt similar operations, though with an organization as unpredictable as Al Qa'ida that cannot be entirely dismissed. Their intentions will however be to attempt to fatally undermine belief in the future success of the War on Terrorism, and that audacious attacks aimed to cause maximum casualties and grab the attention of the worlds news media are certain. They will also aim to split an already restive media away from its present level of support for the US and British Government's actions and to further raise the doubts of the electorate.
 
This must inevitably lead to the depressing conclusion that 'Prime time terrorism' will be high on the hit list, actions that make riveting television and will be endlessly replayed every evening. High-profile buildings, national institutions and perhaps even global celebrities are the likely targets, and unfortunately this time Al Qa'ida will be better prepared for the response and the West could well be forced to suffer a concentrated series of attacks. The United States Government has rightly backed away from its original rather gung-ho anti-terrorist rhetoric and moved towards a more cautious and perhaps privately pessimistic view of the real prospects for victory. However, a victory of some sort there must be, or democracy, freedom and the Western way of life could well eventually collapse as thoroughly as the Twin Towers.
 
Richard M. Bennett
 

Headline

The West ignores the threat of nuclear war at its peril

The threat of a nuclear war now hangs over the peoples of India and Pakistan, to many it seems more a matter of when not if. Both nations have developed effective missile systems with ranges capable of reaching every single inch of each others country and nuclear weapons in sufficient quantities to kill a minimum of 12,000,000 in the initial strikes and many more millions who would perish in the aftermath, of radiation, untreated injuries, riot and famine. The cataclysmic nature of this threat has largely gone unheeded by the general public and perhaps even the political systems of both Britain and America where national celebrations, sporting events and the next twist or turn in Washington's war on terrorism have dangerously distracted attention away from the threat of the worlds first nuclear war and one where the effects cannot be restricted to the region.

Nuclear fallout knows no frontiers nor respects sovereignty. The general publics awareness of the nuclear threat has waned with the collapse of Communism in 1991, this alone is a matter of great concern as the likelihood of nuclear weapons being used has markedly increased since the end of the Cold War. The growth of States with Weapons of Mass Destruction has lead to the risk of their use in Korea, against Taiwan, by Iran, Iraq, Israel or indeed by Osama Bin-Ladin. Kashmir is by no means the only potential nuclear flashpoint that should cause sleepless nights in the West.

Historical distrust and US dollars for Pakistan fuel the crisis

Historical distrust and tensions between India and Pakistan have reached unsustainable levels. The India Government simply cannot be expected to tolerate further Islamic terrorist attacks such as the one against its New Delhi parliament building in December and that have caused the deaths of some 50,000 Indian citizens in recent years. However the regime of Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf simply may not be able to control the Kashmiri militants without risking the fatal destabilization of his own Government. This combination of problems has led many observers to fear the worst, as there appears little room left to avoid an all out conventional war at some time soon with the inherent risk of it ending in a nuclear holocaust.

The situation for the United States as it attempts to balance its need for Pakistan's support and bases for its war on terrorism while at the same time condemning Islamabad's open support for Islamic militants in Kashmir is extremely difficult and one that places severe demands on India's tolerance of Washington's equivocal stance. India fails to see the rationale behind America's policy and indeed this view is held by many independent observers. Sooner or later the United States is likely to have to get off the fence and come down firmly on the side of the worlds largest democratic state and abandon its long term financial and military relationship with a leading supporter of Islamic terrorism.

Nuclear weapons are likely to be used

However,if and when war does break out it is unlikely that nuclear weapons would immediately be used, the one proviso being that neither side had obtained sufficient intelligence on nuclear weapon storage facilities and missile emplacements to be able launch an effect first strike to destroy its opponents entire nuclear arsenal. It is far more likely that following limited combat in Kashmir that the war would spread along the international borders with perhaps a full scale Indian invasion to cut Pakistan in two, this and an escalating air war are the likely catalysts for the use of nuclear weapons. Air attacks on troop concentrations would soon be followed by raids on the opposing sides air bases and eventually on major railway junctions and power stations with the high risk of mounting civilian casualties. It is at this point that either side if seriously at a military disadvantage may feel that the limited deployment of nuclear weapons becomes unavoidable. However, the first use of these dreadful weapons will break a psychological barrier that will almost certainly allow a general exchange with catastrophic consequences.

A battlefield exchange would almost inevitable lead to the strategic use of India's Agni-2 intermediate range ballistic missiles each carrying a 200Kt-warhead equivalent to 200,000 tons of TNT and Pakistan's Shaheen-2 with a warhead of at least 35Kt. The range and accuracy of this weapons make them ideal for the nuclear destruction of major centres of population and within hours of their use many of the famous cities of both India and Pakistan are likely to be at least partly reduced to radioactive rubble. The initial blast, followed by a firestorm and radioactive fallout will cause fearsome casualties and dislocate communications and rescue efforts for many days, if not weeks.

The disaster will not be contained with the sub-continent

At the epicentre everything is immediately vaporised amid temperatures of up to 300 million degrees Celsius. Those unlucky enough not to be killed outright will die of burns and the massive changes in pressure which can burst a person's lungs. Radiating outwards from the main killing zone, people will suffer burns, crushing and piercing injuries and acute exposure to ionising radiation. Many others will die as local rescue and medical services will have been largely destroyed and the survivors unable to cope with the sheer numbers of casualties.

However, of huge concern must be the fact that water supplies even many hundreds of miles from the nuclear explosions will be contaminated by radioactive material and indeed the contaminated dust particles are likely to reach the upper atmosphere where they will drift with the prevailing winds across much of China, South East Asia and across the Pacific ocean to the West coast of both North and South America. In time those same radioactive particles will contaminate the rain clouds over Europe. There is no escape from the fallout from a nuclear war and though many in the West appear to feel that the risk is minimal and in a far away region of the world, the truth is uncomfortably different. A nuclear war will be an unmitigated disaster for both India and Pakistan and could devastate the whole south Asian region, but given time even the people of the United States and Britain will suffer from many of the long-term effects

 Richard M. Bennett
 
 
 

AFI Research provides comprehensive coverage of the regional Military Balance, with up-to-date orbat, weapons and likely battle zones. Full coverage is given of both India and Pakistan's Intelligence and Security services, missile programs and weapons of mass destruction. Contact AFI Research for more details
 
 

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ESPIONAGE- An encyclopedia of Spies and Secrets, ISBN 1 85227 942 7
which will be published by Virgin Books in the UK on June 6th and in the USA on Ist July 2002 and

FIGHTING FORCES a review of the worlds leading Armies, including many in the Middle East, published in September 2001 which is available from Barrons of New York www.barronseduc.com  ISBN 0-7641-5343-9

Both written by Richard M. Bennett
 

The AFI Research website lists many of our Associates and Contributors including  'America goes to War' at Orbat.com  and the defence coverage of Milnet.com.

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