AFI Research Intelligence Briefing for the 10th June 2002
 
Iraq stirs the Middle East cauldron
 
President George Bush is being slowly pushed into a diplomatic corner and his only escape is to present the Middle East with a dynamic initiative to break the current impasse, unfortunately the chances of this US administration coming up with a workable plan seems as remote as ever. However, to do nothing to address the ongoing bloodshed in Israel and the occupied territories will win the US administration few friends and further alienate many of the potential Arab allies Washington will need once the decision to attack Iraq has finally been made.  The President appears to have rejected the Saudi peace plan, to find both Arafats request for the early establishment of a Palestinian State and Sharon's slow step by step movement to limited autonomy for the West Bank both unacceptable, while the Egyptian President, Hosni Mubarraks recent attempts at mediation have been largely ignored.
There are now few real alternatives left to consider and the danger remains that Washington may just allow Sharon an increasingly free hand to punish Arafat and hope that the constant pain of Israeli military reprisals for suicide bombings will cause the Palestinian people to accept the restricted terms Jerusalem may offer.
 
Arafat has limited his response so far to the increasing pressure from Washington and the recent visits of Egypt's Intelligence chief General Omar Suleiman and the CIA Director George Tenet, for a radical overhaul and rationalization of his chaotic security structure to the appointment of retired General Abdel-Razzaq al-Yahya as the new Interior Minister and effective head of a somewhat streamlined security apparatus. This will not however necessarily be taken as a positive sign in Jerusalem, for al-Yahya is known to be pro-Iraqi with close links to its Intelligence Services. Arafat has had to accept that Saddam Husseins supporters are likely to gain in influence within the Palestinian Authority, though this is in reality merely the culmination of a process that has been underway for some considerable time as Iraqi weapons and money have been flooding into Palestinian controlled areas. Iraq's supporters among the Palestinian militants appeared to have played little part in the resistance to the Israeli operations of the last few months, few were captured or killed and only a small quantity of the arms known to have been smuggled in were discovered.
 
War with Iraq may have moved closer
 
Saddam Husseins standing is now set to increase in the region and those Palestinians groups he supports remain the best armed and most capable of providing a cohesive military force. However in a separate but closely linked development, there appears to have a reversal of previous appreciation's of the Iraqi strategic threat. The United States appears to have quietly conceded that the Baghdad regime is now very close to the deployment of effective weapons of mass destruction and these probably include a crude nuclear device. The time-scale for an invasion of Iraq had slipped to the end of 2002, early 2003 or even perhaps put off indefinitely. However recent evidence from sources close to the US intelligence community suggests that the Pentagon has been discreetly ratchetting up military preparedness and has built up a powerful presence in the Gulf in anticipation of at least a limited strike against the Iraqi regime.
 
Both the CIA and the US Special Forces have stepped up their arms deliveries and training programs in Kurdish controlled areas and it is probable that Turkey has been persuaded to allow a considerable Kurdish revolt against Baghdad to be controlled and supported from bases on the border with Iraq. Taken in conjunction with the build up of Special Forces and conventional troops in Kuwait and the Gulf States, President Bush may soon have more options open to him in his determination to overthrow the Iraqi leader. Growing Iraqi influence in Palestine and the resulting alarm in Jerusalem may well force Washington's hand and a limited war against Iraq within the next few months can no longer be ruled out. Largely based around an internal revolt encouraged and supported by widespread US Special Forces operations and backed by a massive air campaign, the war though falling short of an all out ground campaign would still be a dangerous venture for the US to undertake at this time. Support for the United States amongst even its traditional Arab allies is waning and a number of those states castigated by Washington as part of the 'axis of evil' may feel it wise to swallow their normal enmity to Saddam Hussein and support Iraq, if only on the basis that 'if you don't 'hang together, you will surely hang alone'.
 
Though the prospect of co-operation in the face of a US assault on Iraq has been considered unlikely by many in the light of decades of Arab disunity, evidence has mounted recently that fear of America has created a new pan-Arab attitude to defence, if only temporarily.  Iran, Iraq and Syria are now sharing intelligence and military information, with joint defence committees having been established and improved co-operation is also evident in the increasingly free flow of vital strategic goods into Iraq via its closest neighbours. Even Saddams long term enemy, Saudi Arabia is now taking an increasingly pro-Iraqi stance and it is Saudi influence that could finally scupper many of Washington's long-term plans by organizing Iraq's re-acceptance into the mainstream Arab community. Any such major success for Iraq's diplomatic offensive to win friends and influence Arab leaders would severely undermine Washington's ability to gain Muslim or International acceptance for the necessity of overthrowing Saddams regime and though the United States has bluntly threatened to unilaterally go to war if necessary, that may no longer be a viable option in the light of the multi-national co-operation the United States will still need in further pursuing the War on International terrorism.
 
Richard M. Bennett
 
 
 
 
 

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Both written by Richard M. Bennett
 

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