AFI Intelligence Briefing  - 2nd July 2002
 
RICHARD BENNETT MEDIA 
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Chinese weapon development - the next Great Leap Forward
 
China is now the worlds largest importer of armaments and a very large
proportion of those are of Russian origin. Traditionally much of China's
own production has been either direct copies of or at the very least heavily
influenced by Soviet designs. However not only is China now producing
many of the latest weapons systems with Moscow's encouragement,
indigenous designs are appearing in every greater quantities and quality,
though in one recent development the Luoyang Institute of Electro-Optical
Equipment or AVIC Research Institute Number 613 in Henan Province has
apparently made a quantum leap in Chinese capability by successfully 
producing a copy of the secret fire-control software and systems integration
package for the advanced Sukhoi Su-27 fighter being manufactured under
licence in China following a $2.5 billion deal in 1996 at a rate of some 20-25
aircraft per year. An additional deal worth probably $3 billion was signed in
1999 involving the delivery of upto 80 Su-30MKK, a highly sophisticated
long-range strike-fighter version of the Su-27, from the Irkutsk plant and upto
250 under licence at the Shenyang production facility.
 
Russia had refused to supply China with the latest electronic package for
the Su-27 and Su-30MKK and the Russian FSB internal security service
had reportedly foiled several attempts by Chinese agents to illegally obtain
the equipment or details of the technology. Now however as an additional
highlight of the startling advances made in Beijing's military scientific and
technological capability, Chinese engineers have solved the problem of
providing the Peoples Air Force with near state-of-the-art technology.
This is not the only recent advance of note, for although the United States
stepped in to prevent its ally Israel from selling further highly potent air-to-air
missiles and radar systems to the Chinese, it appears likely that Beijing
managed to obtain certain highly valuable material and plans before
Washington enforced its embargo on Israel. Indeed certain aspects of
the Chinese rebuilding of Saddam Husseins shattered air defence systems
may owe more than a little to the technology gained by China's flirtation with
the Israeli arms industry. 
 
China develops a genuine anti-Carrier capability
 
China has also made considerable advances in ship-to-ship missile
systems of particular importance for a possible amphibious attack on
Taiwan or in pursuing Beijings determination to challenge the United
States control of the sea lanes around China. China is actively pursuing
the production and further development of a range of potent systems
including the CSS-C-7 SADSACK,a medium ranged subsonic cruise missile
that can be employed as a ship or air launched system and has appeared
in a coast defence version as well; the CSS-C-8 SACCADE, a naval 
land-attack and anti-ship cruise missile; and CSS-C-3 SEERSUCKER,
a medium range air-, ground- and ship-launched cruise missile which is
part of the on-going development program of the older CSS-C-2 SILKWORM. 
 
The CSS-C-8(YJ-2/C802) in particular, now has an enhanced range of some
140 kms at a speed of 0.9 mach, carrying a warhead of 165-170 kg at just
5 metres above sea level in its final approach to its target.With a low radar
signature this weapon provides China with a viable anti-ship capability which
worries US Naval planners heavily reliant upon carrier battle groups.
Some observers have claimed that this weapon is in the same class as
HARPOON and if reports that it has a hit probability as high as 75% or
more, would undoubtedly make it potentially one the most effective naval
systems in the world today.
 
China is now very definitely in the forefront of military technology. It has cleverly
combined well chosen importation, with indigenous development and a
determined industrial and technological espionage campaign. Those in the
West, and particularly the United States who persist in downplaying both
China's capability and the inherent threat posed by Beijings long-term
intentions do so at great risk. China is not only enhancing its conventional
military power, its nuclear, chemical and biological warfare programs, and its 
strategic missile capability, it also has developed an impressive space program
of satellite launching and cyber-warfare techniques that have been largely
ignored by the West. Have no doubt, China is or very soon will be a genuine
threat to US influence and force projection in much of Asia and while the
War on Terrorism continues to distract America, China is making a new
Great Leap forward in military power.
 
Richard M. Bennett and INSIGHT 
 
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Books by AFI Associates
 
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