SOMALIA - CURRENT WARNING AND BRIEFING PAPER - JULY 2002 - by our European Correspondents

POLITICAL

The former vice-president of the Puntland administration, Abdi Hashi Muhammad, has been re-elected to the post of the vice-presidency in the administration of Col Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmad (Puntland leader). Thirty-nine regional MPs voted in favour of Mr Hashi, whose nomination, has in the past few days, sparked a lot of controversy. Despite having sharp differences with Col Yusuf, Mr Hashi's appointment was mostly due to pressure from his clan, the Dhulbahante. Col Yusuf had for some times tried to convince the clan to propose someone different than Mr Hashi for the post, a matter which had failed to materialize. The dispute between the two leaders has now been sort of settled following mediation by clan elders from both the Majerten (Mr Yusuf's clan) and the Dhulbahante. In another event Col Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmad is said to have threatened to develop relations with the Israeli government if Arab countries do not respond to his demand positively.

Mogadishu Four people have been killed and scores of others wounded after a militia group launched an attack on July 3rd against the security guards of Shaykh Ali Dheere, the current Banaadir regional court chairman. Its is not yet clear why the militia group has launched the attack against Shaykh Ali's security guards. One of Shaykh Ali Dheere's security guards and three civilians have been confirmed killed in the fighting.

South West Reports initiated in the town of Baydhabo (Baidoa) say fighting broke out on July 4^th between rival factions within the RRA [Rahanwein Resistance Army - the Rahanwein Resistance Army controls much of the Bay and Bakool regions of south-western Somalia]. According to the reports most of the town of Baydhabo is now in the hands of militiamen loyal to Shaykh Adan Madobe, who was the deputy of Col Hasan Muhammad Nur Shatigadud (RRA leader). Militiamen loyal to the RRA chairman, Col Shatigadud, the man recently appointed president of South-western State of Somalia, are said to be moving towards the town of Buur Hakaba. A curfew was imposed on the city, the fights started apparently after people tried to oust the administration of Shatigadud. Tension had been rising in Baidoa, the headquarters of the RRA, due to a deepening split between Shatigadud and his deputies over the establishment of the self-declared autonomous region of the South West State of Somalia (SWS). Shatigadud was declared SWS president in late March. The latest violence resulted in the killing of 20 people.

The forces reportedly arrived in Qardho town to back other militiamen supporting Mr Jama's administration in Qardho town. The combined forces mobilized there are now estimated to have reached 500-700 militiamen. Meanwhile, Col Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmad [Boosaaso-based Puntland leader] has of late been showing great concern about the increasing number of militiamen massed by his rival [Mr Jama Ali]. As a result, Col Yusuf has begun military activities and operations at Dalweyn village 20 km from Boosaaso.

HUMANITARIAN

Up to 200,000 people in Somalia's south-western Gedo Region are considered to be vulnerable to food insecurity. The worst affected areas are the districts of Luuq, Dolo and Buulo Xaawo, in the north of the region. Prior to the outbreak of recent fighting in northern Gedo in March, the population in the area had already been food insecure due to "three consecutive dry years", which undermined crop and livestock production.

The chairman of the USC-SNA [United Somali Congress-Somali National Alliance], Usman Hasan Ali (Ato) has said efforts are under way to hold the Somali reconciliation talks in Kenya with the serious involvement of the international community. "The international community should prepare forces to disarm the people and any resolution reached at the Nairobi talks should be implemented," said Ato. He stated that the reconciliation process was too intricate to be left only to Kenya and the IGAD [Inter-Governmental Authority on Development] member countries. Mr Ato stated to a local radio that the call made recently by the interim government for foreign military intervention was unilateral and will not go far. "There will be no troops sent for the Arta group [interim government] alone. The issue is permissible only through the consensus of the Somali people." Mr Ato said there was need for foreign troops to disarm the Somali militiamen in order to rehabilitate them, adding that the matter should be resolved through consensus.

TERRORISM

There are no indications that the terrorist groups and individuals who have left Somalia in the aftermath of the WTC (9/11) attack have returned to Somalia or are eager to return to Somalia. However the political climate (no unified government only factions and clans) is one that could easily harbour training camps and terrorists the geographical situation isn’t supporting any of this. Somalia is a country with lots of sea access and flat, what makes hiding of training camps and people extremely risky and difficult.

ASSESSMENT

Somalia is still struggling to find its way, renewed clashes in several of the area’s are pointing out that the elected officials (mostly through a tribal meeting) are not as strong in the saddle as was assumed. The security situation is still one of the worst in the horn of Africa with a potential humanitarian disaster looming on top of it, 200.000 people in need for humanitarian aid in south-western Somalia, a region that is now also in the focus of the renewed fighting. A fact that will influence the possible humanitarian aid. The call for an international peacekeeping force is a worthy one, but nations will be reluctant to contribute troops to a country that is as unsafe and unstable as Somalia, especially with the disastrous history of peacekeeping operations in this country. The near future will bring not much change to the situation in Somalia; the security and humanitarian aspects will remain the largest problems for the country