AFTER BUSH?

America's short-term reaction to the events of 9-11 always risked the dangers inherent in a hurried and ill-thought out response, but the wise council of the likes of Colin Powell and major foreign allies prevailed. However this success obscured a clear view of the development within Washington of long-term planning for revenge. The United States Governments determination to act as the worlds Imperial power with a right to overthrow unfriendly regimes, sanction the assassination of foreign leaders, support the subjugation by a close ally of a people and the destruction of their right to an independent homeland, and indeed the extraordinary demand for immunity from the laws that bind the rest of the world suggests an America far more unhinged by a single major terrorist attack on its home territory than many first thought.

America's friends and closest allies are becoming increasingly concerned that Washington has allowed itself to become unsighted by its determination to hunt down and destroy Al Qa'ida and that it has become impervious to justified, solid, but well-meaning criticism or advice. It appears to be an administration locked into a hell-for-leather approach and willing to listen only to those like Israel's Ariel Sharon who have a similar taste for somewhat reckless and hard-nosed action and who almost alone, wholeheartedly endorses America's ambitions. Senior US political figures who anticipate the chance to form a new administration in just two years time are very much aware that they will be called upon to face a world created by the actions of the present incumbent and will have to pick up the threads of normal diplomacy at some time.

This will prove an uncomfortable experience for America. Bush may well not long survive the demise of Saddam Hussein even should the United States prove capable of his total removal from power. The Bush administration faces increasing economic problems, the open taint of high-level corruption and difficult times ahead in both its political and military plans. Any new administration will face an intensely hostile Arab-Muslim world possibly smarting under yet another defeat by Israel and this time in conjunction with the senior partner. Another generation of Palestinians will have been lost to the embrace of the terrorists and indeed Israel may find that the incoming American President will be much less enamoured with having US foreign policy seriously distorted or even dictated by its close alliance with the Government in Jerusalem.

The policies of President George W Bush do not always fit comfortably into the tradition of the Great American Statesmen and risk alienating not only a Billion Muslims, but many of his most reliable and long-standing allies. The War on Terrorism is not even assured of any great measure of success, while the planning for action on Iraq appears to bear all the hallmarks of an attempt to create a Middle Eastern Pearl Harbour.....squeezing and pressurising Saddam Hussein into making the fatal mistake of a pre-emptive strike against the massive military build-up along his borders. Thus giving the US international justification for actions which would otherwise be open to considerable question and criticism.

This time however, a war with Iraq which could lead to the eventual involvement of Syria, Iran and widespread terrorist attacks on American military and business targets around the world, may not turn out to be a re-run of the low-risk, low-casualty conflict of 1991. A determined Saddam Hussein and the growing ground-swell of anti-American feeling amongst many in the Muslim and Third Worlds will undoubtedly combine to make the United States pay very dearly for fulfilling its ambitions. Unfortunately future generations of young Americans will also be called upon to make the ultimate sacrifice for the flawed policies of President Bush and the damage done to the United States relationship with Europe in particular, threatens to have considerable consequences for the long term stability and security of the world at large.

Richard M. Bennett

INTRODUCING The new AFI Executive Briefing - Confidential and expert OSINT analysis,

risk assessment and strategic forecasting from RICHARD BENNETT MEDIA

Intelligence Consultants for CEO and Senior Executives in the

Global Business Community. Please contact Executive Briefing for details

of the subscription to this critical new security information resource.

Contact: RBMedia at AFI Research, The Ground Floor, 27 The Avenue,

If you subscribe before the end of June 2002, you will immediately save upto

50% on the price of AFI Intelligence reports which from July will otherwise

cost $300.00 (£210.00).

Contact AFI Research for more details of our comprehensive information

services or send a cheque/IMO made out to AFI Research for $50.00(£35.00)

per annual subscription for the Intelligence Briefing to the UK address.

A limited number of subscriptions are provided free for bone fide members

of the News Media.This Briefing is available in Plain Text or HTML

Books by AFI Associates

ESPIONAGE- An encyclopedia of Spies and Secrets, ISBN 1 85227 942 7,

by Richard M. Bennett published by Virgin Books throughout Europe on the

27th June and in the USA on Ist July 2002

FIGHTING FORCES a review of the worlds leading Armies, including many in

the Middle East, by Richard M. Bennett published in September 2001 which is

available from Barrons of New York ISBN 0-7641-5343-9