AFI Intelligence Briefing - 16th
July 2002
RICHARD BENNETT
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Provisionals as cynical as ever
The apology from the Provisional IRA
council for the deaths of 'non-combatants' over the last thirty years
should be seen for its real worth, as a totally cynical piece of political
opportunism to wrong foot the Unionists and give just enough encouragement to
the British Government to keep the peace process on line.In the early 1970's the original IRA or 'Officials' declared an end to
armed struggle and passed the mantle of defender of the catholic community to
the newly formed Provisional Army Council in Northern Ireland. This had more to
do with the defection of virtually the entire combat strength of the Officials
to the Provo's(PIRA) than any genuine acceptance of the ballot over the
bullet.
The new statement of conditional remorse by PIRA is
in turn apparently in response to the slow bleeding away of its most experienced
hard-men, bombmaking 'engineers' and intelligence staff to the Real
IRA, supposedly a small rump of extremists unwilling to accept the new
political situation being created in Ulster. However in reality the majority of the lower and middle ranking members
of PIRA and the Real IRA are making common cause and probably planning for an
eventual resumption of the conflict in the next year or so. Decommissioning
unwanted or unusable weapons and apologies for past murders gives Gerry Adams an
opportunity to claim a perverted form of moral high ground and
further establish his legitimacy as the future political leader of the
Nationalist community and ensure the continuation of US fund-raising
activities, as well as an ideal opportunity to distance himself
from future terrorist outrages.
Adams twin-track policy
The full truth would probably prove
distinctly uncomfortable for a British Government desperate for an end to
the 'troubles'.
The Real IRA and its many supporters still in PIRA
would be unable to operate if they didn't have the tacit support of the
Nationalist leadership, a turf war or the simply expediency of 'shopping' the
dissidents to the Security Forces would otherwise soon cripple the breakaway
group.
The Nationalist leadership of Gerry Adams is quite
likely to have decided instead on a twin-track policy; keep the political
process going until there is a chance of making major gains in a future
election, along with keeping a genuine military capability intact. This includes creating closer links with international
terrorism, developing new and more powerful bombs and mortars, modernizing its
stock of weapons and allowing a limited amount of terrorism carried out by
the Real IRA to provide a handy reminder of the unpalatable alternative to
the political peace process. The IRA whether Official, Provisional or Real have
had the same ambitions and shown a willingness to use the same methods.
They have not yet achieved the goals that they
have killed and died for since 1916.
Forget that basic truth and the British
Government could be in for a very unpleasant surprise in the near
future.
Richard M. Bennett and Dr James Hawker
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ESPIONAGE- An encyclopedia of Spies
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