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MILNET and OWL OSINT present a collaborative report on changes in political and religious co-operation in the Middle East, changes that have alarming implications for the future of the region. In fact, as we were finishing up this piece, BBC indicated that the Arab newspaper Al-Arab al-Alamiyah is reporting that "...Damascus is striving hard to strengthen an undeclared alliance that combines Iran, Iraq and Lebanon in addition to Syria...". And thus our research and analysis may be right on the mark.
Winds of change in the Middle East - A Brutal Future
As the Middle East continues to boil over, some new ties, once secret, now appear to be emerging into the public eye – ties which show alarming new changes in relationships between various countries in the region.
For instance, it is largely accepted by the general public and some in the media that Syria and Lebanon pose a military threat to Israel. However, if we compare the military equipment of these two parties, we can conclude that, as a military axis, Syria-Lebanon alone poses no threat to the fully equipped and modern Israeli Defence forces.
The long held opinion that Syria and Lebanon is a threat comes not from their military strength. The Syrian military is still operating old "Soviet bloc" arms, equipment which is no match for the state of the art material used by the Israeli's. In fact, this situation is well known by the leaders of the countries involved. Any military actions would be countered ruthlessly and end in a complete defeat for Syria/Lebanon, a risk that the "pouvoir" in Syria is not willing to take.
To understand this particular threat, one needs to look at the politics in Syria. Take for instance the supposedly softer policies of Bashar Assad, son of the previous leader, Hafez Assad. Despite changes among the old pouvoir made by Bashar when he took power, Syria remains a country where politicians are still very congenial to extortion and bribes. This is something the old guard is not willing to give up and a fact Bashar is fully aware of. He knows he would be a fool to change that particular status quo. Another factor is that Syria is still the master over Lebanon and nothing happens in Lebanon without the influence or the knowledge of Syria. This despite voices in Lebanon that continue to call for a complete Syrian pull out from the country. However a Syrian pullout is also something that Bashar Assad cannot afford to let happen.
A Long History of Syrian Involvement
For over fifty years Syria has refused to normalize diplomatic ties with Lebanon because it has always considered Lebanon as a part of Syria, hence the famous words of late President Hafez Assad. During his 30 year tenure, he had only set foot in Lebanon once - January 1975. He crossed the border briefly to meet with his Lebanese counterpart, Suleiman Franjieh, in Shtaura. He later remarked that he "had the feeling of going from one town to another within a single country - of leaving one portion of my people for another." The following year, Syrian military forces swept into Lebanon.
Bashar Assad has broken with the Syrian tradition and visited Lebanon twice already this year,. During his first visit the ARAB-ISRAELI conflict was an important item on the agenda. Although the official statement released by the council did not explicitly mention the Saudi peace proposal, it declared that "any attempt to end the Arab-Israeli conflict should rely on the basis that it should help achieve a complete liberation of all occupied Arab lands, secure the right for Palestinian refugees to return to their homeland, and allow the creation of an independent Palestinian State with Jerusalem as its capital." This was one of the first times that the Palestinian-Israeli conflict was referred to as Arab-Israeli conflict, clearly a sign that behind the scenes, negotiations have been going on between heads of the Arab Nations.
Due to the fact that it cannot pose a military threat to Israel, Syria always likes to keep a stick behind the door to influence Middle Eastern peace. By facilitating Iranian support to Hezbollah through Damascus it keeps a few of the strings in hand and it is easier to create havoc within Israel through these links. Also any overt military action would change the economical possibilities that Syria has with the European Union.
New Arab Co-operation
The greatest danger for the region lays in the possibility of a wider pan-Arabic coalition. Never before have the Arabic Nations shown such an increased ability to work together. For example the increase of similar interests of Saudi Arabia and Iran in the Arab-Israeli conflict is alarming. It seems that Saudi Arabia is trying to increase its influence in the area and especially in Lebanon, a country that is steered from Damascus and supported by Iran. If there was no agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran the Saudi effort would be completely impossible. The pro Iranian Saudi Crown Prince has tried over the last two years to improve Saudi-Iranian relations. Are we now beginning to see the results of those efforts?
From another viewpoint, perhaps more alarming, is the coming together of factional religious elements. The co-operation between Iran, the Lebanon-Syria axis and the Saudis demonstrates an unseen act of co-operation between two different elements within the Islam religion (Sunnis and WAHHABI ), as well as political parties with differing agendas. Iran seeks to maintain its influence in the region and its support for extremist parties, Syria seeks to maintain its role as mediator and by doing so getting possible financial aid, and Saudi Arabia seeks to gain influence and dictate the law in this region.
Another changing aspect in Syrian politics was the rapprochement of the two Baath parties of Syria and Iraq. This is of great interest to analysts since it is something that hasn't happened since Hafez Assad cut the links between the two countries political parties years ago. Also over the last year, analysts have monitored an increase in economical co-operation between Syria and Iraq. With these changes, it is only a matter of time before we see more public aid from Saudi Arabia a country which continues to show a friendly face to Iraq and Iran.
It has also been widely believed that Kusai Saddam Hussein, the youngest son of Saddam and head of the Intelligence and security apparatus, has had several meetings with Iranian Intelligence and political officials over the last year. This adds yet another wildcard to the network of influences shaping up in the region.
Thus we have the lining up of three if not four of the important countries in the region through the mediation of Damascus with intelligence and political operatives pushing to add support and gain influence.
Visibility into Operations and Motives
Never before have the activities of the intelligence forces in the region been so transparent. As each nation attempts to provide support or peddle influence, we are beginning to see links that were invisible before.
MILNET has compiled one of its infamous tables listing the
relationships and activities of intelligence services in the region, activities
that support the thesis of this report.
Sources:
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