With United States and British Intelligence covert
action teams supported by US Special Forces units already operating in the
Kurdish areas of Northern Iraq and in the Basra area near the Kuwait
border it is now quite obvious that the Bush administration intends
ratchetting up the pressure on Saddam Hussein sooner rather than later. Sources
close to the US intelligence community confirm that a serious clandestine effort
will be fully underway by the end of August aimed at destabilizing the
Baghdad regime through internal dissension, defection and increasing
the possibility of a coup by senior members of the Iraqi Government anxious
to avoid their nation being sacrificed once again on the alter to a
dictators ego. The timing of a major air and land campaign may be
conditional on the effectiveness of the Special Operations. If there appears to
be a good chance of bringing about an internal change of regime, then the
conventional operation may be delayed, if not then October appears to
have been pencilled in on the Pentagons calendar.
The nuclear nightmare scenario revolves around the
well founded belief that Saddam Hussein has so far refused Islamic Jihad's
constantly repeated demands to have unlimited access to Iraq's weapons of mass
destruction program as long as he perceives an opportunity to either delay
or avoid a major war with the United States. Usually reliable sources in the
Gulf have told AFI Research that they understand that this decision will be
reversed the moment Saddam Hussein becomes totally convinced that it is only a
matter of time before President Bush gives the final go ahead to remove him. At
that point Osama Bin Ladin will be given whatever he most desires; deployable
chemical and biological weapons, technology and equipment to produce such
weapons and possibly enough nuclear material for a number of 'dirty
bombs'. It has to be pointed out that with the bellicose statements issued
by The Whitehouse, the Pentagon and by leading members of the US Military,
Intelligence and Diplomatic communities in recent weeks, it would be reasonable
for the Iraqi President to have already come to that opinion. It is therefore
quite conceivable that the
Al Qa'ida terrorists are already or soon will
be in possession of the very weapons of mass death that the United States
most fears.
This is a synopsis of a longer and information
rich commentary 'Iraq, the USA and AL Qa'ida - the Nuclear
Equation'
that is only available in full to AFI Executive
Subscribers or when written specially for publication by the News
Media.
Contact: RBMedia at AFI Research,
The Ground Floor, 27 The Avenue,