The terrorism risk is defined as the threat stemming from the use of violence in which the objective is to harm states, population groups or single individuals in order to cause chaos (panic), and reduce their will and power of resistance, so as to advance the political, religious or ideological objectives of those (Islamic extremists, left wing, right wing, anarchistic,...) employing the terror. All of these groups are operational within the borders of Europe and posing one threat or another

Almost one year after the attack on the WTC it is rather clear how vast and large the organization of Al Qaida (Islamic extremist organizations) was and still is on the European continent. Its open borders and easy immigration laws made Europe a safe haven in the past for extremists that had to leave their own countries, building for years a complex and operational network of extremists fundraising, racketeering, smuggling and preparing. Until 9-11 they were rather safe in the European countries, because they were obeying the local rules and laws and didn't cause trouble, however the crackdown of the European Intelligence and security forces on these extremists is pushing them further down in illegality. The fact that troops from European countries are actively participating in the "war against terror" campaign in Afghanistan is profiling Europe as a target. The latest reports are indicating that several European embassies in Pakistan received threats from extremist factions, but also Europe should be preparing itself for that very plausible attack. The last 10 months the entire organization of Al Qaida and other extremist groups has been adapting very fast, hence the new network of Al Qaida with its base of operations out of Spain. As a well trained and oiled machine, the extremist scene adapted and until now overcame with some casualties the hunt for terrorists in Europe. They have been fighting this guerrilla and terrorist warfare for years, living in hide outs, keeping watch for danger it would be very arrogant to say that because of a major crackdown the danger ceases to exist. Several indicators point in the direction of major attack being prepared but also until now have been foiled by the security apparatus.

Recent arrests made in Georgia (Central Asia) are providing the evidence that there is still a flux of refugees (affiliated or not with extremist groups) from Afghanistan into Europe. The latest group that has been arrested at the Georgian border was in the possession of "extremely good" falsified Iranian and other passports, they were trying to reach one of the European countries via Georgia across the Caspian sea. This flux combined with the ongoing recruitment of Al Qaida in Europe is increasing rapidly the number of extremists operating in Europe, thus increasing the risk of a potential attack within the borders of Europe.

Left wing groups are still mainly operational in and around Mediterranean countries like Spain and Italy, where in the latter one the security forces are aware of the threats issued by these groups against politicians but also against multinational corporations. This fits also nicely in the Modus operandi of the Anti globalization movement which seems to have stepped up its operations over the last weeks, but besides some riots and damage there have been no terrorist acts. Greece is fiercely clamping down on 17 November and with result, bringing damage to one of the oldest terrorist groups operating on the continent. This will reduce the operational capability for 17 November, but as proven before by the Red brigades, one remaining member is enough to start the process again.

The Right wing scene remains quiet however there are signs of reported sympathy to the Palestinian cause, however nothing concrete as of yet.

PREVIOUS =  Significant

CURRENT = Significant

NEXT 30 DAYS = Significant

Short overview of the activity of the groups based on ideology