AFI Executive Briefing - 3rd
August 2002
RICHARD BENNETT
MEDIA
Intelligence Consultants
for the News Media, Publishing and
the Global Business Community
Tel: +44(0)1626 33 50
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Saddams aims to split the Trans-Atlantic
consensus
The Saddam Husseins latest ploy
in his campaign to prevent or at least seriously hinder Washington's
planned regime change is to open up the question of whether it may still be
possible for UN Arms Investigators to resume their inspections for the first
time since 1998. European critics of American policy on Iraq and most
of the moderate Middle Eastern States will readily accept Husseins offer as
genuine given a reasonable degree of encouragement by the United Nations
eventual response. European leaders are deeply concerned about the
possibility of a conflict that might get out of hand so close to its own
borders and with the effect that might have on the rising numbers of
Muslims now resident in Western Europe in particular, while even the
most pro-American of Arab leaders are immensely fearful of the possible
popular reaction of their own people to a US led attack on one the most ancient
of countries in the region. Like it or not, Saddam Hussein might be
disliked and feared, but Iraq retains immense respect in the Middle East and the
destruction already wrought upon this great Muslim
civilization is not welcomed even by those who would dearly like to see the
back of Iraq's leader.
Saddam Hussein has had 11 years since the Gulf War
and 4 years since the last inspections to develop sophisticated weapons programs
and indeed the means to hide them quite effectively from even the most assiduous
of UN teams. He may now believe that the opportunity to allow
some form of inspection of a limited number of sanitized sites as probably
sufficient to cause most of the European nations to withdraw their support for
the war against him and indeed sow confusion and doubt in the ranks of his
Arab enemies. Even Turkey, though being pressed firmly by the United States to
remain in the front line of the anti-Saddam coalition, is privately and
occasionally publicly expressing its deep concern. Should Saddam Hussein
manage to pull off a diplomatic coup and there is as yet no certainly that
the United Nations will find his likely offer of a limited resumption of
inspections acceptable, then the United States could risk being severely
wrong-footed. President Bush would find his position increasingly isolated
on the world stage and his determination to overthrow the regime in Iraq
appear as a family feud, a personal vendetta against a foreign leader. With
mid-term elections, a faltering economy and a restive Democratic party scenting
blood, Bush may not find the domestic support for a war in the Middle East
quite as firm as he might have expected or hoped for.
Richard M. Bennett
This briefing has been extracted from a
comprehensive report on President Bush and the US dilemma over Iraq
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ESPIONAGE- An encyclopedia of Spies
and Secrets, ISBN 1 85227 942 7,
by
Richard M.
Bennett published by Virgin
Books throughout Europe on the
27th
June and in the USA on Ist July
2002
FIGHTING FORCES
a review of the worlds
leading Armies, including
many in
the
Middle East, by Richard M. Bennett
published in September
2001
which
is
available
from
Barrons of New York ISBN
0-7641-5343-9
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