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Any historian will tell you that modern history can be foreseen by
studying historical information -- in modern times this can include newspaper
and online media of a particular time around an event. MILNET presents
just a few such headlines to help in clarifying an event just over the
horizon...
Iraq: The Tale of the Headlines, April 02, 2002
A few months back we presented a table of headlines that tell a story of increasing concern, then planning, and then troop movements that would indicate events in the Middle East were moving apace beyond the currrent focus on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The April update to that table shows more ominous results. Arab nations are now predicting an attack on Iraq within the next six months. The chief soldier in Britain has quietly asked his "lads" to be ready to deploy. If this is a dis-information campaign designed to scare Suddam Hussein into allowing inspectors in again, it probably won't work. Crazy men just ignore what they don't want to hear.
But it's scaring the be-jesus out of everyone else. Below is an excerpt from the new table. The complete and updated report is available now on MILNET.
(4/2/2002)
| Date | Media Story | Further Detail | Source |
| 4/2/02 | U.K.'s Top Soldier tells his lads to prepare for an assault on Iraq | Gen. Michael Walker, chief of the General Staff, warned the senior officers earlier in April to prepare for a major offensive against Saddam Hussein later this year. | TLUK. |
| 4/2/02 | U.K. says more combat aircraft being deployed to Gulf | Defense sources in the region said Royal Air Force Jaguar attack jets
arrived in Oman over the past few weeks for an exercise with Oman, but
that they will stay when the exercise is concluded.
The United States has also been quietly increasing its military presence there, and the move by London was closely coordinated with Washington. |
MENL |
| 4/2/02 | Arab leaders prepare for unrest if Saddam is overthrown | Egypt, Jordan, Morocco and most of the Gulf Cooperation Council states are focusing on increasing internal security in preparation for pro-Saddam unrest if the U.S. deposes the Iraqi leader. | AFP |
| 3/28/02 | Arab Summit pledges support for Iraq | "An attack against any Arab nation is an attack on all" | FOX |
| 3/26/02 | Iraqi opposition leaders don't expect to have a military role in upcoming war | Members of the Iraqi National Congress, the London-based group that
volunteered its services against Baghdad, now worry that they will be "marginalized."
The U.S. is broadening its dialogue with exiled groups to include former
members of the Iraqi military establishment and other
dissident organizations. |
FTUK |
| 3/25/02 | DIA Director: General warning of imminent war in Middle East. | U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency Director Vice
Adm. Thomas Wilson says the Middle East is at a crossroads that could lead to a regional war, the Middle East Newsline reports. The Muslim world is under increased pressure and may be at a strategic crossroads, as populations and leaders sort through competing visions of what it means to be a Muslim state," Wilson said. Emerging trends such as rapidly increasing population, poverty and concerns about globalization in Middle East states will increase resentment towards the West and, combined with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, could spark a regional war, Wilson added. |
MENL |
| 3/21/02 | Senate warns administration on Iraqi policy | Senate Armed Services Committee members delivered the stern message to CIA Director George Tenet during a hearing on the intelligence community's latest assessment of leading threats to U.S. security. The panel's top Republican, Sen. John Warner of Virginia, told Tenet that the White House had still not answered questions about plans to overthrow Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. | SJMN |
| 3/20/02 | Iraq says they will cooperate | The speaker of Iraq's parliament, Saadoun
Hammadi, said that Baghdad will cooperate with the international community in an effort to deny the United States any excuse for new military strikes, the Gulf Daily News reports. [MILNET: But when asked what cooperation meant, no pledge to allow inspections, only demands to cease sanctions, clearly empty promise As of 4/3/02 no inspections planned.] |
GDF |
| 3/18/02 | DOE looking at warhead conversion | The analysis will focus on whether an existing nuclear warhead could be modified for use as an earth-penetrating weapon to destroy hardened underground targets. Abraham said the Pentagon is also studying whether there are new ways to attack bunkers and other hardened targets with conventional weapons. | WP |
| 3/17/02 | Jordan's King sees pitfalls in attack on Iraq | King Abdullah II warns attacks on Iraq will strenthen anti-western sentiment and produce more terrorists | LAT |
| 3/15/02 | Iraq beefs up northern and western borders | Iraq is reinforcing its troops along its northern and western borders, building fortifications in uninhabited areas suspected as being used for the development of weapons of mass destruction. Western intelligence sources confirmed earlier reports that Iraq has beefed up its military forces along the Jordanian border | WTC |
| 3/14/02 | BUSH: We are Going to Deal with Saddam | "This is a nation run by a man who is willing to kill his own people ... a man who won't let inspectors into the country....He is a problem and we're going to deal with him," Bush said. Bush said the U.S. is consulting with its allies before taking action and said that Vice President Dick Cheney was traveling in the Middle East, "reminding people about this danger and that we need to work in concert to confront this danger." | Reuters |
| 3/14/02 | Kuwait worries about war in Iraq | "When your neighbor is hit, do you think you will be safe? You won't," commented Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah, the first deputy prime minister. The minister's remarks were made as U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney toured the Middle East, a trip widely seen as trying to drum up support for U.S.-led action against Baghdad. | Reuters |
| 3/13/02 | Saddam deploys troops on Jordanian border | The sources, quoted in the London-based Arabic language daily Al Hayat, said the redeployment began over the weekend, with Iraqi troops moving from their posts in the Kurdish autonomous zone in northern Iraq. Jordan has expressed strong opposition to any U.S. attack on Iraq to overthrow the regime of Saddam Hussein, with King Abdullah II saying any such attack would be a disaster for his country. | MENL |
| 3/13/02 | Bulletin of Atomic Scientists: Nuclear Policy Criticized | "while the Reagan administration developed
new nuclear capabilities and doctrine to deter and defeat a nuclear attack by the Soviet Union, the Bush administration envisions using nuclear weapons in an array of non-nuclear scenarios, including the destruction of chemical and biological weapon stockpiles." |
P |
| 3/12/02 | Cheney, Blair, make it clear Saddam must go | Despite pressures from his own Labor Party, British Prime Minister Tony Blair joined U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney in making a case for the removal of Saddam Hussein as leader of Iraq, Fox News reports. "He's in breach of at least nine U.N. Security Council resolutions about weapons of mass destruction. He has not allowed weapons inspectors to do the job that the U.N. wanted them to do in order to make sure that he can't develop them," Blair said. | FOX |
| 3/12/02 | No neutrality in the War on Terror, Bush warns | President George Bush warned ambassadors from 120 countries that "there can be no neutrality" in the continuing war on terrorism, the Times of London reports."Every nation in our coalition must take seriously the growing threat of terror on a catastrophic scale, terror armed with biological, chemical or nuclear weapons," Bush said. | LTUK |
| 3/11/02 | Iraq rejects inspectors | Iraq refused to allow U.N. arms inspectors back into the country following talks with U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan and vowed to repel any U.S. attack, the Australian reports. "Iraq's positions, barring the return of the spy teams, are firm and will not change," said Vice President Taha Yassin Ramadan | TA |
| 3/11/02 | Iraq: Civilian Trucks become military vehicles | U.S. officials have presented the United
Nations with satellite photos as evidence that Iraq has illegally converted imported trucks to weapons carriers. The heavy trucks, imported as part of the "oil-for-food" program, were photographed at military bases -- part of the proofs offered that Baghdad is rebuilding its military. |
LAT |
| 3/11/02 | U.K. Cabinet not eager for war with Iraq | Prime Minister Tony Blair was warned against
being dragged into a conflict with Iraq, with several of his Cabinet members threatening to resign, reports the Times of London. Several ministers demanded that all diplomatic avenues be explored before military action was even contemplated |
TTOL |
| 3/11/02 | U.K. - U.S. Wants 20,000 troops against Iraq | The United States has asked Britain to prepare plans to contribute 25,000 troops to join in an attack on Iraq, the Guardian reports. U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney is travelling to London to speak to Prime Minister Tony Blair, armed with fresh evidence against Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein. In one option, the British troops would be part of 250,000 total troops led by the U.S. in an invasion similar to the 1991 Persian Gulf War. A second option calls for smaller special forces units to support Iraqi opposition forces, much like Afghanistan. | TGUK |
| 3/09/02 | New Report releases details on strategy against seven nations | In the January 8 report, which also included a report on nuclear posture, China, Russia, Iraq, Iran, North Korea, Libya and Syria are identified as countries U.S. is preparing strategies against | MENL |
| 3/08/02 | Annan tries to get Saddam to accept Inspectors | United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan met with Iraqi officials in what many see as an 11th-hour attempt to head off an attack by the U.S., the Daily Telegraph reports. Annan urged that weapons inspectors be allowed to return as required by a series of U.N. resolutions passed at the end of the 1991 Persian Gulf War. There is growing enthusiasm in Washington to forcibly depose the Iraqi leader, and one senior American diplomat warned, "Basically, it's weapons inspectors or annihilation for Saddam." | DTUK |
| 3/08/02 | Brits make case against Saddam | In what could be the clearest signal that the U.K. is willing to assist the U.S. in confronting Iraq, British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw said Iraqi President Saddam Hussein would have "to live with the consequences" if he refuses to allow U.N. inspectors access to his weapons programs, reports the Times of India. U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair is reported to be planning to publish detailed intelligence material on Iraq's weapons programs, similar to the dossier he published on behalf of Bush soon after Sept. 11 to persuade Pakistan and the Islamic world that America had a strong case against Osama bin Laden, Al-Qaida and the Taliban. | TTOI |
| 3/08/02 | U.N. talks end with no sign that Baghdad is willing to admit weapons monitors | On Wednesday, U.S. officials showed diplomats and U.N. officials satellite photos that they said proved that Iraq was circumventing the sanctions by converting as many as 1,000 heavy-duty imported trucks to artillery and missile | LAT |
| 3/07/02 | Georgia-U.S. May not use Georgian airfields to attack Iraq | Georgian Foreign Minister Irakly Menagarishvili said the United States may not use Georgian airfields for any international anti-terrorism operation against Iraq, Bloomberg News reports. Menagarishvili, quoted by Interfax, said the possibility that Georgia would allow such a move "is from the realm of science fiction and has no realistic grounds." | BN |
| 3/07/02 | Dirty Bombs would be effective | Top nuclear officials told senators that
so-called "dirty bombs" are the perfect weapon for terrorists, being easer to procure than nuclear devices and capable of killing and contaminating large groups of people with radioactive material. A radiological device detonated by terrorists would also require the evacuation and decontamination of a downtown area, disrupt the local economy and possibly create a panic, according to top officials from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission |
AP |
| 3/06/02 | U.S. to Present Evidence of Saddam's Weapons programs | This week the United States will present the U.N. Security Council with evidence showing Iraq has converted trucks imported under a humanitarian program into rocket launchers and military transports, the Financial Times reports. In a highly unusual move for the U.S., which rarely releases intelligence data openly, the evidence is expected to include satellite pictures and will likely be used to justify the blocking of trucks as part of the oil-for-food program. | FTUK |
| 3/05/02 | U.K. Foreign Secretary Knocks Saddam | -- Foreign Secretary Jack Straw is the latest British official to turn
up the heat on Saddam Hussein in what could be a political prelude to an
attack on Iraq, the Times of London reports. Straw, writing in the
Times, said that if Saddam Hussein fails to open his weapons program to
international inspection, "he will have to live with the consequences."
There is evidence of increased efforts to procure nuclear-related material
and technology and that nuclear research and development
work has begun again. Without the controls which we have imposed Saddam would have had a nuclear bomb by now," Straw wrote. |
TTUK |
| 3/04/02 | Iraq-Air Defenses bombed after targeting U.S. aircraft | U.S. fighter planes bombed several Iraqi air-defense sites last week in the "no-fly" zone set up in the northern region of the country, reports Reuters. The attacks were carried out after radar and anti-aircraft guns targeted the planes. | Reuters |
| 3/04/02 | Baghdad promises U.S. a new Vietnam | Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz vowed the U.S. would get "another
Vietnam" if it attacked his country, Agencia EFE News Service reports.
Aziz added that "each town will become another Vietnamese jungle,"
citing what he termed a healthy relationship between the Iraqi government and its people. |
- |
| 3/04/02 | U.K.-Blair says no dithering over Iraq this time | In one of his most bellicose statements yet, British Prime Minister
Tony Blair said Britain and the U.S. will not repeat the mistake of dithering
over Iraq as they had done over Afghanistan Blair said he would meet
with U.S. President George Bush soon to discuss the next move against rogue
states working on weapons of mass destruction, such as Iraq and North Korea."If
chemical, biological or nuclear capability fell into the wrong hands and
if we did not act, we might find out too late the
potential for destruction," Blair said. |
TTOL |
| 3/01/02 | Bagdad Tells London. to "Prove it" | Iraq challenged the United Kingdom to say where any Iraqi weapons of
mass destruction are being produced, saying it would admit British arms
inspectors if London could do so. "If Blair tells us, and the world,
where and when these weapons are being produced [in Iraq], we are ready
to immediately receive a
British mission sent by Blair, accompanied by a group of British media men," said a government spokesman through the official Iraqi News Agency. |
Reuters |
| 3/01/02 | Blair Agrees Iraq Is 'a Real Threat' | British Prime Minister Tony Blair on Thursday endorsed President [George
Bush]'s decision
to take on states that accumulate weapons of mass destruction and suggested that he would back U.S. action against Iraq. Blair is expected to hold talks with Bush in Washington next month to discuss a plan of action against Iraq as part of a second phase in the U.S.-directed "war ... |
LAT |
| 2/26/02 | Iraq-Inspectors would have hard time, says Rumsfeld | Even if U.N. Security Council inspectors were to gain access to Iraq
to search for weapons of mass destruction (WMD), they would face a difficult
task, according to Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. Rumsfeld said that
Iraq has advanced its various WMD programs and had time to hide many of
them, either by disguising them as dual-use technologies or making the
development operations mobile, the Armed
Forces Press Service reports. "You could put inspectors all over that place and it would be very difficult to find anything," said Rumsfeld. |
AFPS/
LAT |
| 2/26/02 | Iraq, U.N. Chief to Discuss Arms Dispute; Mideast: Annan will meet foreign minister, but diplomats expect little progress on weapons inspections. | Iraq's foreign minister will meet with U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan in New York next week to discuss Security Council demands for weapons inspections, U.N. officials announced Monday. "The secretary-general expects to have a focused discussion on the implementation of the relevant Security Council resolutions, including the return of U.N. weapons inspectors to Iraq," a U.N. spokesman said. | LAT |
| 2/26/02 | Lack of JDAMS may postpone U.S. attack on Iraq | Any attack against Iraq could be up to a year away as the United States scrambles to replenish its stocks of precision-weapons systems, the International Herald Tribune reports. Pentagon planners say it will take at least six months to produce enough joint direct attack munitions (JDAMs) to commit to an attack on Iraq | P |
| 2/21/02 | Iraq advised to accept inspectors by Sudan | Sudan urged Iraq to allow U.N. weapons
inspectors to return to Baghdad in an effort to avert a possible U.S. attack, reports CNN Sudanese Foreign Minister Mustafa Osman Ismail met with Iraqi President Saddam Hussein to deliver a message from Sudan President Omar Al-Bashir, the Iraqi News Agency said. |
CNN |
| 2/21/02 | Wolviwitz warns pre-emptive strikes could be coming | Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz said that preemptive strikes by the U.S. military could be coming in the war on terrorism. Pentagon officials have repeatedly denied that a decision has been made on where the U.S. will strike next, with heavy speculation focusing on Iraq as the target. | FOX |
| 2/21/02 | Raids Meant to Stop Flow of Cash to Iraq | Customs has accused Al-Shafei Family Connect of sending millions of
dollars to Iraq in violation of a decade-old embargo. A raid on the company's
Seattle-area office last month turned up files containing the names of
individual company agents in the U.S., the
Customs Service said. Customs has said that Al-Shafei wired money intended for recipients in Iraq to a bank in Jordan. |
LAT |
| 2/19/02 | Egypt-U.S. attack plans set, says Mubarak | According to HA'ARETZ, CIA Director George Tenet informed Egyptian
President
Hosni Mubarak that the U.S. has decided to attack Iraq, reports Ha'aretz. Tenet reportedly asked the Egyptian president not to express public opposition to a U.S.-led attack on Baghdad. Mubarak is said to have warned Tenet of the repercussions from such an American attack, saying it could endanger the stability of the entire Middle East. |
P |
| 2/19/02 | Iraq-U.S. May Fight Alone | America's European allies are becoming
increasingly concerned that the Bush administration is moving toward a military clash with Iraq, despite their own vocal opposition, reports the Washington Post. Publicly, European leaders are using bullhorn diplomacy to condemn what they view as Washington's belligerent unilateralism that will undermine, if not destroy, the solidarity created in the aftermath of Sept. 11. |
WP |
| 2/19/02 | Saddam braces for U.S. onslaught | Iraqi newspapers are claiming that the U.S. is launching a psychological war on Iraq in preparation for military strikes, Reuters reports. Babel, a newspaper owned by Iraqi President Saddam Hussein's eldest son Uday, said that the goal of the U.S. propaganda and military actions is to "dismantle Iraq and its territorial integrity." | Reuters |
| 2/16/02 | Cheney Sees Support if U.S. Takes On Iraq | [Dick Cheney], speaking before the Council on Foreign Relations, said
Iraq is "very much
of concern" to President Bush and is one of the focuses of the U.S. war against terrorism because of its drive to develop... |
LAT |
Note: Sources for the table above are listed at the bottom of the full report.
© Copyright, 2002, Michael Crawford, MILNET
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