MILNET-Commentary - Mid-East Update

MILNET: Mideast Update, Spring 2002

Spring in many cities of the U.S. is time for cleaning out old closets, sweeping out the garage and in general, just getting things in order. For MILNET, it is time for our Update On The Middle East. This year, we present a nice "click-able" map of the Mideast, as well as a paragraph on the current status of each of the highlighted countries.

MILNET's Middle East Update, March 1, 2002

Note: On the map, Chad, Niger, Nigeria, Tunisia, European countries, and former Soviet Union States are not "live".

Middle East Briefings

Bahrain Sheik Hamed ibn Isa Khalifa, the current Emir, anointed himself King of Bahrain. The country will now be a constitutional monarchy, making if quite different then its neighbor The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. "We are keen to resume democratic life as soon as possible for the glory of Bahrain, its prosperity and developmen...Men and women will be allowed to vote and run for office." Hamed is the son of the previous Emir who died in 1999. His plans include creating a bicameral legislature with an elected lower house and an appointed upper house. He has already made major changes such as releasing political prisoners, welcoming home exiles and suspending the emergency rules put in place by his father on 1974, by Sheik Isa ibn Salman Khalifa.

Egypt Mubarak continues to condemn both Israel and Palestinians for continuing the violence. Also supported U.S. response to September 11th, however support has been muted now that the Taliban have been ejected. Has co-operated with financial seizures and controls, clamping down on charities thought to funnel funds to Al-Qaida and other terrorist organizations. Extremely outspoken against any military action against any of the Arab nations including Iraq and Iran. Extremely negative response to U.S. President George Bush's "Axis of Evil" remarks. Early in February 2002, Egypt won over $10 Billion in aid from nations and international institutions, with about $2 billion in immediate financial aid. However the remainder depends on transparent and acceptable money management practices. At the same time Egypt has voted with the OPEC oil cartel to reduce oil production thus forcing increases in oil prices worldwide.

Iran Speaking like a friend, actions like an enemy, Iran has earned a place in history as a member of President George Bush's declared "Axis of Evil". Iran continues to build its NBC programs, and it is believed they are near or have already assembled a nuclear device. Iran continues to arm heavily and is being assisted primarily by China and North Korea. Extremely negative response to Axis of Evil remark, intelligence shows state sponsored street demonstrations against U.S., with "Death to Americans" theme. Has recently installed an all new, fiber optic inter linked radar system reputed to be able to detect, under certain conditions, stealth aircraft. Both the U.S. and Afghanistan's interim governments have accused Iran of allowing Al-Qaida and Taliban escapees to flee and take refuge in Iran. Iran denies the accusations and says of 150 people held in crossings, none are Taliban or Al-Qaida. Moderate forces in Iran are not happy with the "Axis of Evil" label, and say that they have made great reforms, from more modern and anti-hate education to woman's rights. Iran was the source of weapons and the ship Israel intercepted -- weapons bound for Palestinians and Arafat's Fatah. U.S. believes Iran is continuing to develop NBC weapons and remains under export controls. U.S. believes Iran would trade NBC weapons with terrorist organizations.

Iraq Since December 1998, there has been no inspection regime. Continuing to defy U.N. sanctions, evidence is growing that Iraq has taken advantage of the absence of on the ground NBC inspectors by fully implementing new chemical and biological weapons programs. Some evidence suggests that all Iraq lacks is nuclear material suitable for a nuclear weapon assembly. Delivery is assured by current and additional missile technology. Smuggled equipment and arms from China and North Korea. Nearly every week, Iraqi air defenses will lock onto U.S. and British aircraft patrolling the northern and southern no fly zones, and in most cases threatened aircraft will destroy the artillery or SAM site as well as nearby command and control equipment. There is some evidence to suggest Iraq has successfully built a RWDW (Radioactive Waste Dispersal Weapon). There is no reform activity in Iraq, making it the only Arab nation not actively pursuing improvements in human rights, woman's rights and modernizing education. Iraq has continually used humanitarian aid and its funds from the "Oil for Food" program in its weapons development and stockpiling projects. U.S. believes that Iraq is continuing to develop NBC weapons and remains under export controls. U.S. believes Iraq would trade NBC weapons with terrorist organizations.

Israel The Israeli-Palestinian conflict continues to escalate. Today the violence is indistinguishable from open warfare with TV pictures on 2/28/02 showing Palestinians firing AK47s at Israeli tanks and troops from streets in the West bank. Israel is known to have or is able to assemble rapidly a number of nuclear weapons however their constitution prohibits sale and only allows use in defense.

Jordan The son of the former King of Jordan has continued his father's steps to normalize relations with the West and act as a buffer and go-between with Arab nations. Extremely vocal against any proposed violence against any of the Arab nations, Jordan has attempted to be a moderate voice in other Middle East efforts. Jordan's moderate stance however has its costs...on February 28, 2001 anti terrorism official Mohammad Ali Abdul-Kader Shihadeh, 26, an Egyptian, and Badr Khader, 19 were killed when a car bomb was detonated as they walked by the vehicle located in Amman, Jordan. The car bomb may have been targeted at the owner, Lt., Col. Ali Burjak, responsible for taking to trail 28 terrorists. Jordan is occassionally identified as the country where Palestinian extremists infiltrate into Israel to conduct mortar or automatic rifle attacks on Israeli. Jordan has supplied much needed mine clearing expertise and personnel to forces in Afghanistan.

Kuwait A recent Gallup poll of Kuwaiti citizens revealed that 89% (the highest in the poll) do not believe Arabs were responsible for the attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon on September 11, 2001. Promised reforms after the conclusion of the Gulf War have not been honored. The U.S. Central Command moved its theater command HQ to Kuwait on December 14, 2001.

Lebanon Lebanon government, under the firm control of Syria continues to support and provide refuge to Hamas, Hezbollah and Fatah terrorists. About every two weeks Israeli jets will pound compounds in Lebanon that threaten Israeli security - for instance heavy gun emplacements under construction that can fire into Israeli territory. The Lebanese government has turned a blind eye to arms smuggling from Iran, through Lebanon into Israeli occupied territories destined to Palestinian radicals such as members of Hamas, Hezbollah and Fatah. MILNET believes Lebanon would purchase NBC weapons and supply them to terrorist organizations. MILNET also believes Lebanon is the source of weapons smuggled into Palestinian areas in Israel, including rockets, mortars and the explosives used by suicide bombers.

Libya Has turned over Lockerbie terrorists to Italian justice officials on condition they would not be extradited to the U.S. Libya continues to support Saddam Hussein in Iraq. Libya is thought to be continuing to develop NBC weapons and remains under export controls. MILNET believes Libya would supply NBC weapons to terrorist organizations.

Oman Along with UAE and Qatar, Oman is implementing anti money laundering laws, subjecting all transactions over $10,000 to disclosure and identification. Also included are plans to have bank investigators turn over records of their background investigations of their larger customers.

Qatar Along with UAE and Oman, Qatar is implementing anti money laundering laws, subjecting all transactions over $10,000 to disclosure and identification. Also included are plans to have bank investigators turn over records of their background investigations of their larger customers.

Saudi Arabia Crown Prince Abdullah has declared a plan for peace between Israel and Palestinains -- nothing new in the plan echoing much of the Oslo accords goals, but Saudis say they will support recognition of Israel as a nation if Israel will recognize the nation of Palestine. The Saudis have been engaged in a PR campaign on American TV attempting to soften their image, however the lack of real visible support has hurt them in the eyes of most Americans and has taken steps over the last 9 months to slowly and inexorably force the U.S. off of Saudi soil. The majority of the September 11 hijackers. This, plus the majority of Al-Qaida leadership having come from Saudi Arabia disturbs analysts worldwide. Many cite Saudi Arabia's support for the extreme, anti-western Islamic teachings which is part of the educational system that makes young men in Saudi Arabia ripe for recruitment into groups like Al Qaida. Indeed, the Saudis fund a spreading worldwide "disease" marked by these Madrasses and Mosques which teach the virulent form of Islam.

Syria New Syrian President BasharAssad, has made no real changes to his father's reign over Syria, however some dialog with the West had occurred. Exchange of ideas on how to normalize relations has occurred however no concrete action has taken place. Currently, Syria is estimated to be making upwards of half a billion dollars annually importing oil from Iraq in violation of resolutions adopted by the United Nations Security Council, to which Syria was recently elected as a non permanent member. MILNET believes Syria would purchase NBC weapons and supply them to terrorist organizations. MILNET believes Syria's control of the Lebanese government is key in the Lebanese support of Hezbollah and Hamas mortar, rifle, rocket and suicide bomber attacks on Israel.

United Arabs
Emirate The suicide attacks on U.S. targets in September finally prompted U.A.E. officials to crack down on Al-Qaida and those funneling funds into that other terrorist organizations. In the recent past Oman has been a friendly route for escaping middle eastern terrorists. U.S. media sources quote U.S. government officials citing Oman as a clearing house for funds ot terrorist groups including Al Qaida, even after September 11, 2001.

Yemen Following the U.S.S. Cole attack, Yemen has been cooperating with U.S. Intelligence and others by sharing intelligence, as well as implementing financial tools to break up funding of terrorist cells using local banking systems. On March 1, 2002, U.S. announced it is going to aid Yemen in military training in anti terrorism and is considering a request to provide aid to build a maritime patrol effort to guard Yemen's coastline.

milnet@milnet.com

Bahrain	Sheik Hamed ibn Isa Khalifa, the current Emir, anointed himself King of Bahrain. The country will now be a constitutional monarchy, making if quite different then its neighbor The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. "We are keen to resume democratic life as soon as possible for the glory of Bahrain, its prosperity and developmen...Men and women will be allowed to vote and run for office." Hamed is the son of the previous Emir who died in 1999. His plans include creating a bicameral legislature with an elected lower house and an appointed upper house. He has already made major changes such as releasing political prisoners, welcoming home exiles and suspending the emergency rules put in place by his father on 1974, by Sheik Isa ibn Salman Khalifa.
Egypt	Mubarak continues to condemn both Israel and Palestinians for continuing the violence. Also supported U.S. response to September 11th, however support has been muted now that the Taliban have been ejected. Has co-operated with financial seizures and controls, clamping down on charities thought to funnel funds to Al-Qaida and other terrorist organizations. Extremely outspoken against any military action against any of the Arab nations including Iraq and Iran. Extremely negative response to U.S. President George Bush's "Axis of Evil" remarks. Early in February 2002, Egypt won over $10 Billion in aid from nations and international institutions, with about $2 billion in immediate financial aid. However the remainder depends on transparent and acceptable money management practices. At the same time Egypt has voted with the OPEC oil cartel to reduce oil production thus forcing increases in oil prices worldwide.
Iran	Speaking like a friend, actions like an enemy, Iran has earned a place in history as a member of President George Bush's declared "Axis of Evil". Iran continues to build its NBC programs, and it is believed they are near or have already assembled a nuclear device. Iran continues to arm heavily and is being assisted primarily by China and North Korea. Extremely negative response to Axis of Evil remark, intelligence shows state sponsored street demonstrations against U.S., with "Death to Americans" theme. Has recently installed an all new, fiber optic inter linked radar system reputed to be able to detect, under certain conditions, stealth aircraft. Both the U.S. and Afghanistan's interim governments have accused Iran of allowing Al-Qaida and Taliban escapees to flee and take refuge in Iran. Iran denies the accusations and says of 150 people held in crossings, none are Taliban or Al-Qaida. Moderate forces in Iran are not happy with the "Axis of Evil" label, and say that they have made great reforms, from more modern and anti-hate education to woman's rights. Iran was the source of weapons and the ship Israel intercepted -- weapons bound for Palestinians and Arafat's Fatah. U.S. believes Iran is continuing to develop NBC weapons and remains under export controls. U.S. believes Iran would trade NBC weapons with terrorist organizations.
Iraq	Since December 1998, there has been no inspection regime. Continuing to defy U.N. sanctions, evidence is growing that Iraq has taken advantage of the absence of on the ground NBC inspectors by fully implementing new chemical and biological weapons programs. Some evidence suggests that all Iraq lacks is nuclear material suitable for a nuclear weapon assembly. Delivery is assured by current and additional missile technology. Smuggled equipment and arms from China and North Korea. Nearly every week, Iraqi air defenses will lock onto U.S. and British aircraft patrolling the northern and southern no fly zones, and in most cases threatened aircraft will destroy the artillery or SAM site as well as nearby command and control equipment. There is some evidence to suggest Iraq has successfully built a RWDW (Radioactive Waste Dispersal Weapon). There is no reform activity in Iraq, making it the only Arab nation not actively pursuing improvements in human rights, woman's rights and modernizing education. Iraq has continually used humanitarian aid and its funds from the "Oil for Food" program in its weapons development and stockpiling projects. U.S. believes that Iraq is continuing to develop NBC weapons and remains under export controls. U.S. believes Iraq would trade NBC weapons with terrorist organizations.
Israel	The Israeli-Palestinian conflict continues to escalate. Today the violence is indistinguishable from open warfare with TV pictures on 2/28/02 showing Palestinians firing AK47s at Israeli tanks and troops from streets in the West bank. Israel is known to have or is able to assemble rapidly a number of nuclear weapons however their constitution prohibits sale and only allows use in defense.
Jordan	The son of the former King of Jordan has continued his father's steps to normalize relations with the West and act as a buffer and go-between with Arab nations. Extremely vocal against any proposed violence against any of the Arab nations, Jordan has attempted to be a moderate voice in other Middle East efforts. Jordan's moderate stance however has its costs...on February 28, 2001 anti terrorism official Mohammad Ali Abdul-Kader Shihadeh, 26, an Egyptian, and Badr Khader, 19 were killed when a car bomb was detonated as they walked by the vehicle located in Amman, Jordan. The car bomb may have been targeted at the owner, Lt., Col. Ali Burjak, responsible for taking to trail 28 terrorists. Jordan is occassionally identified as the country where Palestinian extremists infiltrate into Israel to conduct mortar or automatic rifle attacks on Israeli. Jordan has supplied much needed mine clearing expertise and personnel to forces in Afghanistan.
Kuwait	A recent Gallup poll of Kuwaiti citizens revealed that 89% (the highest in the poll) do not believe Arabs were responsible for the attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon on September 11, 2001. Promised reforms after the conclusion of the Gulf War have not been honored. The U.S. Central Command moved its theater command HQ to Kuwait on December 14, 2001.
Lebanon	Lebanon government, under the firm control of Syria continues to support and provide refuge to Hamas, Hezbollah and Fatah terrorists. About every two weeks Israeli jets will pound compounds in Lebanon that threaten Israeli security - for instance heavy gun emplacements under construction that can fire into Israeli territory. The Lebanese government has turned a blind eye to arms smuggling from Iran, through Lebanon into Israeli occupied territories destined to Palestinian radicals such as members of Hamas, Hezbollah and Fatah. MILNET believes Lebanon would purchase NBC weapons and supply them to terrorist organizations. MILNET also believes Lebanon is the source of weapons smuggled into Palestinian areas in Israel, including rockets, mortars and the explosives used by suicide bombers.
Libya	Has turned over Lockerbie terrorists to Italian justice officials on condition they would not be extradited to the U.S. Libya continues to support Saddam Hussein in Iraq. Libya is thought to be continuing to develop NBC weapons and remains under export controls. MILNET believes Libya would supply NBC weapons to terrorist organizations.
Oman	Along with UAE and Qatar, Oman is implementing anti money laundering laws, subjecting all transactions over $10,000 to disclosure and identification. Also included are plans to have bank investigators turn over records of their background investigations of their larger customers.
Qatar	Along with UAE and Oman, Qatar is implementing anti money laundering laws, subjecting all transactions over $10,000 to disclosure and identification. Also included are plans to have bank investigators turn over records of their background investigations of their larger customers.
Saudi Arabia	Crown Prince Abdullah has declared a plan for peace between Israel and Palestinains -- nothing new in the plan echoing much of the Oslo accords goals, but Saudis say they will support recognition of Israel as a nation if Israel will recognize the nation of Palestine. The Saudis have been engaged in a PR campaign on American TV attempting to soften their image, however the lack of real visible support has hurt them in the eyes of most Americans and has taken steps over the last 9 months to slowly and inexorably force the U.S. off of Saudi soil. The majority of the September 11 hijackers. This, plus the majority of Al-Qaida leadership having come from Saudi Arabia disturbs analysts worldwide. Many cite Saudi Arabia's support for the extreme, anti-western Islamic teachings which is part of the educational system that makes young men in Saudi Arabia ripe for recruitment into groups like Al Qaida. Indeed, the Saudis fund a spreading worldwide "disease" marked by these Madrasses and Mosques which teach the virulent form of Islam.
Syria	New Syrian President BasharAssad, has made no real changes to his father's reign over Syria, however some dialog with the West had occurred. Exchange of ideas on how to normalize relations has occurred however no concrete action has taken place. Currently, Syria is estimated to be making upwards of half a billion dollars annually importing oil from Iraq in violation of resolutions adopted by the United Nations Security Council, to which Syria was recently elected as a non permanent member. MILNET believes Syria would purchase NBC weapons and supply them to terrorist organizations. MILNET believes Syria's control of the Lebanese government is key in the Lebanese support of Hezbollah and Hamas mortar, rifle, rocket and suicide bomber attacks on Israel.
United Arabs Emirate	The suicide attacks on U.S. targets in September finally prompted U.A.E. officials to crack down on Al-Qaida and those funneling funds into that other terrorist organizations. In the recent past Oman has been a friendly route for escaping middle eastern terrorists. U.S. media sources quote U.S. government officials citing Oman as a clearing house for funds ot terrorist groups including Al Qaida, even after September 11, 2001.
Yemen	Following the *U.S.S. Cole* attack, Yemen has been cooperating with U.S. Intelligence and others by sharing intelligence, as well as implementing financial tools to break up funding of terrorist cells using local banking systems. On March 1, 2002, U.S. announced it is going to aid Yemen in military training in anti terrorism and is considering a request to provide aid to build a maritime patrol effort to guard Yemen's coastline.