MILNET: N. Korean Nuclear Crisis

Date	Event	Analysis
1994	Clinton Administration propose the "Interim Framework" for dismantling of theNorth Korean nuclear weapons development program.	When North Korea balks at inspection provisions, the Clinton administration okays a deal which allows North Korea to voluntarily "set up inspection criteria and monitoring". U.N. ratifies the framework. No inspections and little monitoring is performed and no administration follow through allows North Korea's program to go unchecked and no pressure is exerted on North Korea to abide by the agreement.
2001	President Bush names North Korea one of three countries in an "Axis of Evil".	North Korea states the U.S. President is provoking a confrontation.
2001	Sec. of State Colin Powell confirms ongoing U.S. policy to negotiate with North Korea stating it is the U.S. policy not to permit North Korean from becoming a nuclear power, at the same time admits the North Korean's probably have produced enough material since 1994 to create at least two bombs. North Korea denies the charge.	U.S. Intelligence has multiple sources to confirm an ongoing nuclear program since 1994, and the U.N.'s inability to conduct intelligence operations and inability to monitor due to the framework has allowed the North Korean program to proceed apace.
10/2002	Colin Powell sends Ambassador Kelly to North Korea to confront their leaders with U.S. intelligencedata and on day one they deny, but the next day admit to having not ceased their nuclear program, adimitting to having enough fissile material to build at least one weapon. Powell also states that the U.S. doesn't know where an actual weapon would be stored and therefore can take no direct action.	The framework, having never been pursued further, is not a treaty and as Secretary Powell states in a "Meet the Press" interview with NBC's Tim Russert, it pretty much useless. "What the agreement is is not an arms accord; it's essentially a framework agreement, a political agreement between the United States and North Korea...An agreement between two parties where one party says it's nullified, there isn't much you can do with an agreement in that circumstance." ¹Powell's denial of ability to take direct action is viewed by some as pacification -- the U.S. does know where the plant is located and taking it out would deliver a VERY strong message to the North Koreans.
11/2002	Declassified CIA intelligence estimateon North Korea's Nuclear status is released to Congress on November 19, 2002 indicating that: Reprocessing the spent 5 MWe reactor fuel now in storage at Yongbyon site under IAEA safeguards would recover enough plutonium for several more weapons. Restarting the 5 MWe reactor would generate about 6 kg per year. The 50 MWe reactor at Yongbyon and the 200 MWe reactor at Taechon would generate about 275 kg per year, although it would take several years to complete construction of these reactors. Uranium Enrichment The United States has been suspicious that North Korea has been working on uranium enrichment for several years. However, we did not obtain clear evidence indicating the North had begun constructing a centrifuge facility until recently. We assess that North Korea embarked on the effort to develop a centrifuge-based uranium enrichment program about two years ago. Last year the North began seeking centrifuge-related materials in large quantities. It also obtained equipment suitable for use in uranium feed and withdrawal systems. We recently learned that the North is constructing a plant that could produce enough weapons-grade uranium for two or more nuclear weapons per year when fully operational -- which could be as soon as mid-decade. We continue to monitor and assess the North's nuclear weapons efforts, which given the North's closed society and the obvious covert nature of the program, remains a difficult intelligence collection target." ²	The declassification came as some Democratic Congressional leaders claim North Korea is not the danger indicated by the Bush Administration. Incidentally North Korea denies the facts in the report, while at the same time all of the members of the U.N. Security Council, including China, over the next six months, verify independently through their own intelligence channels. While the U.S. pushes for U.N. action to put pressure on North Korea to submit to IAEA inspections, France and several other nations hold up the proposals and the U.N. fails to take any appreciable action other than "strong language." The ineffectiveness of the U.N. diplomacy and lack of direct action by any other nation allows the North Korean program to continue virtually unabated.
7/2003	Intelligence sources tell NBC that North Korea is building a second reactor capable of producing fissile material, shortly followed by U.S. revealing that sources indicate the plant is being built with the aide of Russia. ^₃	The information points out that the Russians are not an ally and that they still have problems differentiating between a desperate need to bring in revenue and actions that are not in theirs and the world's best interest. One more step towards declaring Russia a rogue state.
7/2003	North Korea, in response to U.S. release of intelligence about 2nd reactor says U.S. is once again provoking and states there is a strong possibility of a 2nd Korean War. ⁴	Once again North Korea responds to criticism and revealation of their duplicity by threatening violence against South Korea and Japan.
10/2003	North Korea reports that it has finished reprocessing some 8000 spent fuel rods in order to create weapons grade fissile material ⁶	Follow ups show that if the rods were indeed reprocessed, they would yield enough material to create some twenty bombs. Some experets believe North Korea only has the capability to put together five or six (circa 2003). U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell later stated that there was no confirming intelligence data to suppor the claim. That does not mean it didn't happen ... it just means that the U.S. can't confirm the claim.
5/2004	Associated Press releases a story claiming that U.S. intelligence officials have received information from Libya that North Korea supplied the nuclear material for the Libyian nuclear program. ⁷	Previously the U.S. Intelligence Community believed Pakistani scientists provided knowledge and material. The information was later confirmed by several other intelligence sources while being strongly denied by North Korea. This points out that North Korea is indeed the nuclear proliferation menace stated by President Bush in his "Axis of Evil" speech. Could this be a possible customer for the material being produced by reprocessing spent fuel rods?
6/2004	North Korea provides the terms of a proposal for them to freeze their nuclear weapons development program. ⁸	The proposal is in response to U.S. demand of complete dismantlement of N. Korea's nuclear program, which N. Korea refuses to consider. U.S. Hardliners clear in proposals to the administration, "tell the N. Koreans to dismantle the program or we will dismantle it for them".
6/2004	North Korea warns they will test their first nuclear weapon if the current negotations do not give them the results they want. ⁹	The latest stage in increasing nuclear blackmail that began with "...give us promises of no aggression and financial aid and we won't build a nuke", now finally arriving at "we will test our weapon", all indicating either a collasal bluff or total dissemillation over an onging, highly active program to develop and test their nuclear weapon.
9/27/2004	North Korea has reprocessed the enriched uranium from 8,000 spent nuclear fuel rods and used it for weapons to serve as a deterrent against a possible nuclear strike by the United States, a North Korean minister said Monday. ¹⁷	Warning that the danger of war on the Korean peninsula "is snowballing," Vice Foreign Minister Choe Su Hon blamed the United States for intensifying threats to attack the communist nation and destroying the basis for negotiations to resolve the dispute over Pyongyang's nuclear program. Without specifying what kinds or the number of weapons it has, Choe said North Korea has been left with "no other option but to possess a nuclear deterrent" because of U.S. policies that he claimed were designed to "eliminate the DPRK by force while designating it as part of an `axis of evil' and a target of pre-emptive nuclear strikes."¹⁷
12/6/2004	IAEA Warns that North Korea probably has enough weapons grade materials to produce up to 6 nuclear weapons	While some intelligence agencies say that bombs have not been constructed. "In an interview with The New York Times newspaper, IAEA head Mohamed ElBaradei said he believes nuclear material his agency once monitored in North Korea has been converted for use in four to six nuclear bombs."Spokesperson Melissa Fleming...Unfortunately, we have no possibility to accurately check on what is going on in North Korea...In fact, no one does. All we can go by is assumptions, assumptions that are based, though, on a very good knowledge of what North Korea had, plutonium, what facilities it has, that is a re-processing facility, and what capabilities it has, and that are scientists with the know-how. So, one has to assume if there is a will there, there is an intention, that they would be perfectly capable of turning this plutonium into weapons-grade plutonium, and perhaps a nuclear weapon."
1/27/2005	Reuters reports that North Korea may have purchased a complete, ready to go nuclear weapon from Pakistan	"North Korea appears to have bought a complete nuclear weapon from either Pakistan or a former Soviet Union state, a South Korean newspaper said on Thursday quoting a source in Washington. Seoul Shinmun quoted the source as saying the United States was checking the intelligence. The purchase was apparently intended to avoid nuclear weapons testing that could be detected from the outside, the source was quoted as saying. North Korea is believed to have one or two nuclear weapons and possibly more than eight. U.S. Congressman Curt Weldon said after a visit to the North this month that its second-ranked leader had told his delegation that it possessed nuclear weapons. Pyongyang has declared that a nuclear reactor at Yongbyon, sealed under a 1994 agreement with the United States, had been restarted. Spent nuclear fuel from that reactor could be converted to weapons-grade material. North Korea has never officially declared that it possessed atomic weapons, speaking instead of its "nuclear deterrent." U.S. experts who visited the Yongbyon facility said spent plutonium previously stored there had been removed. North Korea is suspected of running a separate program based on uranium enrichment technology, assisted by a former top Pakistani nuclear scientist. " ¹⁹
2/11/2005	North claims it now has nuclear weapon and that it will use it if attacked by the South or the United States, and rejected the U.S.' call for six party talks.	The U.S. still maintains that this is posturing and that a diplomatic solution is possible. "North Korea defiantly told the world Thursday it does have nuclear weapons and that it's not interested in restarting disarmament talks anytime soon. The communist nation argued it needs protection against what it considers an increasingly hostile United States. Pyongyang's pronouncement was the first time it publicly confirmed what other nations suspected, but its claim could nevertheless not be independently verified." ²⁰
4/19/2005	U.S. Intelligence says No. Korea has shut down one of the reactors suspected of producing fissile material for the No. Korean weapons program.	One of the various possibilties for this action is that No. Korea has finished producing all the weapons grade material it needs for their weapons program. ²²
5/11/2005	North Korea announced they have begun pulling fuel rods out from one of their reactors, a step that can place those fuel rods into a nearby reprocessing facility in order to extract plutonium.	The activity could produce plutonium that can be used to manufacture nuclear weapons. This is the second cycle of this nature, the first was some 8,000 rods which could have been used to produece up to four or five nuclear weapons. See the ABC ²³ story below.
6/22/2005	North Korean government representatives blame U.S. for the North Korean Nuclear Program, stating the U.S. need only pledge non-aggression and recognize North Korea as a soverign nation. ²⁴	The official cites request in 2002 for cooler relations that were rejected by U.S. officials. Like willful children, the North Koreans, not getting what they wanted, ejected U.N. inspectors and resumed work on their nuclear program -- steps that only assured the opposite of their request. Absent appeasement in response to N. Korea's nuclear blackmail, it is clear diplomacy has failed and will continue to fail with North Korea. Clearly the failure of diplomacy means the U.S. needs to move onto something other than diplomatuc efforts. Decades of North Korean whining and intrangience is not going to change and a nuclear test is the only "sure thing" on the horizon.
10/05/2006	North Korea claims they are about to test a nuclear weapon to prove they are indeed a nuclear power. U.S. has dispatched an RC-135 radiation sniffer along the border to attempt to detect the test. ²⁵	Japan and South Korea are literally screaming they will take some sort of action and the U.N. representatives for nations in the area as well as the U.S. and its allies threaten undisclosed actions, all of which are empty threats. If the North Koreans indeed do have a weapon, there is nothing anyone can do that will stop them, this is an issue of changing the dynamic of the power in the region and only a rationale decision by North Korea not to take that step would stop the test. No one in any political or non-proliferation circle believes North Korea has rationale leadership.
10/09/2006	North Korea claims to have conducted a test of a nuclear weapon. Seismic monitors seem to confirm that the test may have produced a nuclear yield, as much as 4 kilotons. Some analysts of the seismic data question whether blast was defective nuke or point out event could have been staged using conventional explosives.	Regional powers all condemn the move and it is expected U.S. U.N. ambassador John Bolton will request the U.N. security council to conduct an emergency meeting to discuss sanctions. Protests in South Korea and Japan mark the event and it is clear the region feels a "nuclear pall".
10/11/2006	North Korea claims that sanctions proposed by the U.S. and others in response to the detonation would be an act of war, further increasing the concerns of its neighbors.	Like a spoiled child, the North Koreans continue to whine and cannot seem to understand they produce the very responses they whine about. As one official says in private, "it's not like they were warned...what are they thinking?"
10/16/2006	According to several news stories, the U.S. has confirmed the N. Korea Test was indeed nuclear, yielding about 1 kiloton. ²⁸ Atmospheric sniffing (WC-135) confirmed the presence of trace elements from minor leaks from an underground test.	The low yield indicates a poor ignition -- possibly due to poorly enriched uranium or bad triggering. Large enough, of course, to create plenty of devastation if used against a city, making the test successful in terms of N. Korea's goals, to make them appear to be a nuclear power.
02/21/07	The The Institute for Science and International Security reports that No. Korea most likely has enough weapons grade nuclear material to build from 4 to 8 weapons. The Institute also says they believe the reports that No. Korea most likely developed their weapon with the help of A.K. Khan, the Pakistani nuclear scientist, and that their weapons design is probably fairly crude, but still quite dangerous. If attacked, the report says, No. Korea would most likely detonate another test to make the point they would use the weapons if necessary. The report also says the weapons are capable of being mounted on the North's medium range ballistic missiles.	Disarmenent talks seemed to progress to a point where the basic agreement on dismantling their program in return for fuel oil and other necessities. However, only a few hours after a reported agreement was made, the North's military and politicos were still boasting of their great capability. It is still not clear if the North is actually going to comply with the dismantlement, only time will tell. However, it IS clear that the game of nuclear blackmail has succeeded for the rogue regime, getting a number of concessions from the West including a possible treaty that prevents the South or its U.S. backers from invading the North. Of course, for some reason, no one seems to remember this was all part of the original framework agreement that the North broke in order to start up their secret weapons program. So essentially, we are back to the 1990 talks stage, with the North in possession of the nuclear weapons now being the only difference. So much for non-proliferation diplomacy.