New Developments in Nuclear Arms

India's Weapons Program | Pakistan's Weapons Program
NOTE: Carry Sublette's Nuke Pages contain an excellent summary of countries who are nuclear armed.

A PANEL SAYS PRIMARY SECURITY CONCERN OF U.S. IS FURTHER SPREAD
OF NUCLEAR ARMS
WASHINGTON (MARCH 3) DPA - A panel of experts agreed in testimony before the House Foreign Affairs Committee Tuesday that the primary national security concern of the U.S. government is the possibility of further spread of nuclear weapons.

One expert, asked to rank in order the kind of weapons which pose the greatest threat to the world, nuclear, chemical, biological or conventional, answered: "Nuclear, nuclear, nuclear."

But the panel of experts disagreed on which country represented the greatest single danger of the spread of the nuclear threat.

Geoffrey Kemp, a former member of the National Security Council staff and a senior fellow at the Carnegie Institute, said the greatest danger came from the two "bad guys" - Iran and Iraq, particularly Iran, which has the money to develop its own nuclear infrastructure or to buy bootleg weapons from destitute countries of the former Soviet Union.

Leonard Spector, also a fellow at Carnegie, said: "Unquestionably, the most serious proliferation threat today is posed by the (nuclear) assets of the former Soviet Union."
Michael Krepon, a scholar at the Henry Stimson Centre in Washington, said the greatest danger was posed by the continuing presence of nuclear weapons in Israel, combined with the desire of countries such as India and Pakistan to match such nuclear strength.

Yet another expert, former undersecretary of commerce for trade and export Paul Freedenburg, told the committee hearing that the greatest danger was posed by Iran and North Korea.

Krepon summed up the differences by saying that the disagreement among the experts seemed to show there was a general danger to the world, although nobody could say with certainty where it would come from.

Spector estimated that Iran, under present conditions, could develop its own nuclear weapon in between eight and nine years. He admitted that he had made that same estimate for Iraq about three years ago and, in light of the new evidence that has come out of United Nations special inspections, he had clearly underestimated the danger from the Iraqi nuclear weapon project.

The underlying assumption by the committee was that there are five active, declared nuclear powers in the world today: the United States, Britain, France, Russia and China.

There are three undeclared powers which either have the weapons or could quickly assemble them: Israel, India and Pakistan.

In addition, three former Soviet republics, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine have nuclear weapons on their soil but have pledged to sign the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

South Africa, although probably nuclear-capable, has renounced mucear weapons and Argentina and Brazil have said they are renouncing their nuclear weapons programmes.

Spector said the most important thing the new U.S. administration could do to discourage further spread of nuclear weapons would be to declare an indefinite ban on nuclear testing of new and existing weapons. It would send a signal to those countries which are edging toward the nuclear threshhold that the largest nuclear power was showing unilateral restraint.

Kemp told the panel that it would be a mistake for the Clinton administration to lay down one set of rules for nuclear weapons and then expect every country - from Israel to Iran - to obey such restrictions.

Kemp and the other experts said there was little or no hope of getting Israel to roll back its nuclear arsenal, which is now estimated to hold 200 warheads. But a declared freeze by Israel and India and Pakistan could have a health effect on other countries with nuclear ambitions.

Krepon suggested that the Clinton administration could also name one high-ranking official to deal exclusively with the problems of nuclear proliferation. At present, he said, the highest U.S. government official concerned mainly with non- proliferation of nuclear weapons is a deputy assistant secretary of state, a fourth-tier career official with little political clout.

Transmitted: 93-03-03 10:13:00 EST

IRAN DISMISSES ALLEGATIONS OF NUCLEAR CAPABILITY, TEHERAN (MARCH 13) DPA
A senior official dismissed Western allegations Saturday that Iran was attempting to acquire an atomic bomb, terming them "pure fabrications" launched by Israel.

Head of Iran's atomic energy organisation Reza Amrollahi was quoted by the Iranian news agency IRNA as telling newsmen that Iran, in accordance with its Islamic beliefs, was an opponent of the production and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

Iran is a member of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna and a signatory to the treaty for non-proliferation of nuclear weapons treaty and it strictly abides by it, Amrollahi stressed.

Amrollahi said Iran and China were cooperating to set up two 300 megawatt nuclear reactors in Iran and said it was the natural right of every country to build such power plants to meet its energy requirements.
Transmitted: 93-03-13 13:57:00 EST

U.S. CONFERS WITH U.N. ON
NORTH KOREAN PULLOUT FROM NUCLEAR ARMS, TREATY WASHINGTON (MARCH 12) DPA
- The United States began conferring Friday with
other members of the United Nations Security Council to work out a response to North Korea's announcement it was withdrawing from the Nuclear Non- Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

The U.S. State Department joined Japan and others in deploring Pyongyang's decision, saying it
contradicted commitments made by the North Korean government.

North Korea has been a signatory to the NPT since 1985, but only last year agreed to accept inspections of suspected nuclear installations by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It allowed two before changing its policy.

The State Department said that even if North Korea's decision to withdraw from the NPT is legal, the notice would not take effect for another 90 days, and in the meantime North Korea was required to allow further inspections.

Officials said international actions against North Korea were limited, partly because many Western countries already had economic sanctions in place against the country, and North Korea had little hard currency to make purchases on the international market.

Boucher said North Korean denials of a nuclear weapons programme would not be credible until Pyongyang permitted international inspections of several installations.

These underground installations have been kept hidden from inspections and from intelligence satellites and overflights.

Transmitted: 93-03-12 15:15:00 EST

US decries N. Korea withdrawal from nuclear non-proliferation pact - The Associated Press
Washington--Mar 12--The State Department today said it deplores the North Korean decision to withdraw from an international treaty aimed at curbing the spread of nuclear weapons. It called on North Korea to reverse the decision.

Spokesman Richard Boucher refused comment on whether the US believes North Korea has nuclear weapons, but he acknowledged there are "significant uncertainties" about the country's past activities.

There is a possibility North Korea has not fully declared all of its nuclear materials to international nuclear inspectors, he said.

The US believes there is an "absolute need" to resolve these uncertainties through international inspections, he said.

The North Korean government said its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty was based in part on the start of joint US-South Korean military exercises this week.

Boucher noted that North Korea's obligations to the International Atomic Energy Agency remain in force for at least 90 days, even if it formally notifies the UN Security Council and all member parties.

Transmitted: 93-03-12 16:34:00 EST

IAEA TEAM HEADS FOR IRAQ TO INSPECT INSTALLATIONS FOR NUCLEAR MATERIALS , MANAMA (MARCH 3) DPA
Inspectators from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) left
for Iraq Wednesday where they were planning to view up to 25 installations.

The team, with 24 inspectors headed by Dimitrius Perricos of Greece, is also hoping to put pressure on Iraq to reveal details of the suppliers involved in its nuclear arms programme.

The question of the long-term control of Iraq's nuclear programme will also be raised, as required by U.N. Resolution 715, which Baghdad refuses to recognise. The IAEA's 18th mission to Iraq is scheduled to end March 11.

Some of the 20 to 25 installations which the IAEA team planned to see had not yet been inspected and were suspected of being connected with the country's nuclear weapons project, Perricos said.

He also accused the Iraqis of not answering the inspectors' questions honestly and restricting their comments to places which they knew the IAEA was already aware of.

U.N. resolutions passed following the Gulf War in 1991 require Baghdad to reveal and destroy its entire mass destruction arsenal.

Transmitted: 93-03-03 05:59:00 EST

IRAQ SEEN WITHIN 5 YEARS OF HAVING NUCLEAR WEAPON -Iraqi President Saddam Hussein could have a nuclear weapon within 4 or 5 years if he escapes international controls, the Israeli army chief of staff, General Ehud Barak, said today. Iran, however, would take "a good decade to have an atomic bomb," he said.
Transmitted: 93-03-03 19:39:00 EST