MILNET Opinion
 The Cold War Is On, 03/02/2007 (updated 8/21/2008)

"...unlike Soviet times, Russia is not out to make mischief for the West. Russia wants to use its influence to build bridges, initiate dialogue, and play a positive role."

- Yevgeny Satanovsky, president of the independent Institute of Middle East Studies in Moscow, 2/21/2006  7

"One state, the United States, has overstepped its national borders in every way...the almost uncontained hyper use of force in international relations...It is a world of one master, one sovereign ... it has nothing to do with democracy...This is nourishing the wish of countries to get nuclear weapons...This is very dangerous, nobody feels secure anymore because nobody can hide behind international law..."

- Vladmir Putin, Security Forum, Munich Germany, 02/11/2007  10


For a number of years, the hints have been apparent to those looking.  In some ways, it has been apparent only as a sort of feeling of deja vu, a little like reading a few pages into a book and then realizing, "Hey, I've read this book!".  That realization -- that inkling suddenly becomes a ull blown spine tingler...when you mentally put a finger on a passage and say before you've read it, "this is going to happen, you watch."  And then you know.  It's all happened before.  In this case, we're saying there is a New Cold War in operation today, and it has been in operation for some time.

In politics and history, the same feeling can be had when history begins to repeat itself -- or at least patterns emerge that you've seen before.  Especially when the people involved give you clues or the nations involved resembles a familiar pattern -- one you remember occuring not so long ago.  Then, when governments return to age old practices that you had hoped were gone for good, you know it is more than just a vague feeling, it is a full blown epiphany.  Thus we arrive at the situation today, the New Cold War brewing away, and in places, it is not so cold, it is damned well on fire.

We should note up front that this discussion will focus on the Middle East viewpoint, with mention of Europe and the Americas only made tangentially to that focus.  However, there is additional evidence of the New Cold War worldwide, and we invite you to explore that for yourself.  Don't be thrown off, for instance, by our lack of focus on the major Old Cold War tensions in Europe, where billions of dollars and millions of man-hours were spent in watching for a Soviet incursion into Western Europe.  That is a story for another day.


The Old Cold War


A Middle Eastern View: The Old Cold War

The Old Cold War emanated from a political realization that the two largest allies during World War II were fierce competitors and suddenly very unlikely to work together without considerable friction.  Especially as one had the world's most powerful military technology, the atomic bomb, and the other had huge populations and a lust for more land, wealth and power.

The power vacuum after the conclusion in both theaters of war in the late 1940s left two major forces to preside over European and Asian reconstruction.  The U.S. and the U.S.S.R.  This led to a "cold" confrontation -- the stance at the abyss, never quite materializing into an actual war, but at times getting pretty damned close.

In the U.S., a War Department was being molded into the Defense Department.  The Army Air Corps was on its way to becoming the Air Force, complete with a world spanning command that could take the world's most horrid weapons to any spot on the globe.  First through Intercontinental Bombers and then later, through Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles that shortened the warning time in nuclear conflict from many hours to just a few minutes from launch to "finish".

The U.S.S.R., fighting this pace of technology, inspired great concerns, in what some called a paranoid delusion, but which was never-the-less based in fact.  The Russian Sputnik, the first orbiting satellite opened U.S.  military planners to the realization that the high ground was a very scary proposition and worthy of exploration for military purposes.  After all, if Sputnik could rain down weapons fire instead of a weak radio signal, then it would be a difficult platform to detect and counter.  Add nuclear weapons to this mix, and you suddenly have world ending battle fears.

The Cold War then emanated from two perilously powerful adversaries on opposite hemispheres of the world.  That was actually a good thing...imagine the squabbles between neighbors that could have occurred if the USSR were perched in Canada?

The obvious geographical separation was a just as obvious opportunity for nearly uncontrolled expansion.  Political differences and large geographical distances would have seemed to make the consolidation of power between the two giant forces proceed at an even pace. However, there was one huge problem.  The empire dominated by the Russians WAS perched right next to the eastern borders of Europe.  Post-war Europe was not so enamored of the Soviets then as they are of Russia today. 

Stalin was seen quickly as an evil manipulator and the rapidly growing Soviet influence, enforced by tanks and troops nearly exploding out of Russia and gobbling up "allies" created much concern.  The North Atlantic Treaty Organization marked the line finally, dividing Eastern and Western Europe, and creating the term the "West" to describe western Europe and delineate it from the "Eastern Bloc" of Soviet Nations.

What is important to understand from this exercise in history is what happened next.  The Soviets, concerned about defections from their "alliance" in their West (The Eastern Bloc lay between Europe and the Western Russian border), began to clamp down on just about everything, creating what would be a philosophical and political entity that had no existence in the real world other than lines on a map. 

The Iron Curtain was built on the necessity to keep "allies" in, and everyone else out.  Secret societies do this with gatekeepers and watchdogs, and the Iron Curtain in Europe was not much different with lines to cross marked by Soviet troops guarding the "border".  Then, in order to keep control of fleeing East Berliners, the Soviets put up the Berlin Wall, adding a concrete and wire barrier to illustrate to everyone what the Iron Curtain really meant.  Keep those dissatisfied with the Soviet system in.  Only spys wanted to cross in the other direction.

What happened next is appropriate to modern discussion of things Russian and is as telling as any other.  After a period of consolidation that effectively also placed the "stakes in the ground" between the "East" and the "West", the Eastern border of Europe and the Western border of the Soviet Union became a trigger point.  If either "side" were to cross the line, a newly nuclear Soviet Union would find itself embroiled in a nuclear confrontation with Western Europe and its ally, the United States of America, one of a couple of NATO partners far, far away from the geographies that created the tension.

With Russian's Western border locked down (so to speak, ask an older Polish resident about the days before the Soviet annexation of that nation into the fold), the only direction to expand was first East, and then South.  Unfortunately, the Chinese were uneasy partners in the Communist revolution and at best, a friendly adversary and worse, a truculent ally. 

And there remained the problem of what to do with the rest of the world.  After all, when you are a worldly power, you must consider how to best expand and consolidate in cycles until you reach the limits of your existence.  Especially if your ideology realizes that you cannot co-exist with those who believe nearly the opposite.  Totalitarian control and economic controls versus Freedom of Expression and market economies.  Almost like night and day, right?


The Big Lie

The problem of course is that neither side was 100% emmersed in their own political and economic charters.  The harsh conditions in Europe after the last days of World War II lent compassionate Americans and the British to help their neighbors recover from destruction and deplorable economic collapse. 

The Big Lie was that despite the Anti-Soviet zeal of the day, Europe was already  leaning toward liberal socialism -- liberalism had the benefit of compassion and socialism has the benefit of maximizing control of economy and rebuilding.  The U.S. too realized the harsh reality that with freedom comes a liberalized look at how to govern both economy and nation. Thus the liberalization of the West for America and Europe had begun well before Harry Truman's handover to Ike Eisenhower. 

The American nation, fresh from killing off right wing Nazi zealots, realized that within its own borders a similar stratification of citizenry was at work.  The American Jew was black in color and extremely more economically disadvantaged than many Jews in Europe and Russia before World War II.  Something had to give.

An era of protest created individuals and skills of activism in the U.S. and gave rise to many of the front runners in the Democratic party over the last few decades.

Similarly other events created another breed of politician.


Worldwide Expansion

Realizing a geographical hurdle in the giant nation of Communist China to the East did nothing to slow down Russian expansion.  The Sino-Soviet alliance, while awesomely frightening on paper, was never-the-less another part of the Big Lie. That alliance in fact never amounted to much other than a tacit agreement not to tread on each other and when conflicts in expansion arose, to work them out amicably.  So when Soviet world domination met Chinese theater expansion, they both agreed that a communist nation springing up in new places within South and Eastern Asia, was an ideal conclusion to any friction that might occur.  The Sino-Soviet expansion quickly showed its face in such places as Northern Korea, Northern Vietnam, and as far East as to become the West...Cuba and South America. 

The Korean War was a classic Chinese supported revolution, the North slowly building its forces to a point where invasion of the South could be felt well before it occurred.  The conflict was never truly resolved and the demarkation between North and South remains today.

Entry into the American Hemisphere was a huge win-win for the Soviets.  By finding an ally in their far-far East, gave the Soviets a staging ground for threatening the West, while at the same time providing a staging ground for movement of resources and subsequent plundering of South America.  This also produced the first use of a now familiar theme...anything that produced chaos for the U.S. was good for the Soviets.

JFK refused to allow Russian Missiles in Cuba, resulting in a nearly nuclear confrontation between the Soviets and the U.S.

The Vietnam War saw both Chinese and Russian aid to the North Vietnamese, Russian pilots training North Korean flyers borne in Soviet or Chinese built Soviet fighters.  Surface to Air missiles were a similar component of the aid from the Sino-Soviet expansion and fostering of the Communist front.

Ronald Reagan's refusal to give into Soviet Expansion into the American Hemisphere resulted in support for anyone willing to raise up against Socialist governments, with Nicaraqua being a particular festering sore. 

The final fall of the Soviet Union brought the Cold War to an end.   Or did it?


Funding of Anti-Democratic Causes

The Soviets learned a valuable lesson.  It was terribly inefficient to move Russian Troops and machinery around the globe.  It was much better to convince others to rally in the Communist-Socialist call and provide for their own weapons of destruction and to create their own diversions for American Democratic ideals.

The answer, then, was to spread the revolution by proxy revolution.  Revolutionary idealists such as Che Gueverra and at the time little known Fidel Castro became a central hinge point for conquering the Americas and suddenly the little revolution in little Cuba became a BIG revolution right off shore of America.

Indeed, Soviet funding any sort of anti-American initiatives in the world was thought to be a great multiplier.  This left the Soviets in the enviable position of accomplishing their goals while someone else did all the work.  Granted it still cost money, and yes, troops and training were a major investment in time and energy, but the payoff hoped to be much larger than the outlay and without stripping the motherland of its own military resources.  So while the "West" was engrossed in profit economically, the Soviets and Chinese governments focused on profit in the form of expansion of influence and force multipliers.


The New Cold War


A Middle Eastern View: The New Cold War

Note:  In the diagram, Iran is shown supporting Sunni insurgents in Iraq.  This is in error.  While Iran supports chaos in Iraq, their Shia brothers receive the lion share of Iranian aide.  Indeed, Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, leader of the Mehdi Army militia, spends a great deal of time in Iran, intimating where he finds alleigance and support, if not directly receiving orders (i.e. from Iranaian Intelligence who may be directing much of the insurgency on behalf of the Mullahs in Iran).

Today, we are looking at similar conditions in the world then were found in the old Cold War. However the geography, at least politically and on the ground,  has changed to a different area and different ideologies.  Unfortunately for all, the center of attention happens to be the richest in oil, that incredible energy source that has turned nomadic, tribal squabblers into money barons and peddlers of influence. 

But aside from the terrain, some of the conditions are very similar to the early days of the Cold War.  Powerful nations are still all about consolidation of that power, and yes, hoping for and driving to gain influence.  The landscape is more about energy policy than geographical expansion -- no one really wants to own desert ground, they want that which lies under it.

But to categorize our modern conflicts as centered around oil and its being sucked out of the earth is far too simplistic.  The real issues are very familiar to anyone living through the Cold War.  Ideology still reigns supreme.  Only this go around, it is Putin's form of democracy which is going through some alarming changes away from those heady days when the Iron Curtain came down along with the Berlin Wall.  And the Europeans are challenged by runaway liberalization that moves them closer to that which they fought so long against only a mere two decades ago.  And the real threat, a murderous interpretation of Islam, which is nothing more than an ideology where people mean nothing and Extremist Islamic views trump all. That too seems almost too familiar from the first Cold War ideologies.


It Feels Like the Old Cold War!

This does feel like the first Cold War.  In the Middle East, ancient antagonisms have erupted into a worldwide epidemic of violence by a few against everyone.  Violence at any time and in asymmetrical form.    The world is at War, a world war without boundaries and without an identifiable force of enemies that modern surveillance could identify. It is a war that cannot be denied, yet is often victim to that apathy. No legions of soldiers moving across the landscape, no fleets of ships or squadrons of aircraft to defend against, the new war is about murderers hidden right within their brethren.  Thus it takes intellectual prowessness and understanding of the pervasiveness of opposing idealism and the occasional "hit at home" event to move the apathetic to action.  Worse, in the Middle East or the heart of Europe or America, the decades of nearly uncontrolled liberalized immigration policies have led to the enemy living and growing in every nation of the world. 

Hidden by rights to practice religion, today's dangerous ideology cannot be held back by something as simple as the notion of a geographical line that identified the Iron Curtain.  Nor can it be defined by a line on a map that was the trigger point for NATO response.  Today's conflict is all about ideology.  Yet, many of the old policies have reappeared.

A much weakened Russian influence is once again on the rise.  Vladmir Putin, a spy from the dark days of the Cold War recognizes this ground.  His colleagues funded covert operations the world over and he understands how spreading influence is a simple matter of supply and demand, Russian style.  His predecessors in the Soviet era funded revolutionary anti-Democratic operations daily.  Today, Putin is taking the same tact and using it well.  He is funding anti-American operations daily, and using the obvious foils and old methods against American desires to spread freedom parallel their efforts in post-World War II Cold War days.

Consider where Russian dollars are going.  No longer is there much effort to control the Eastern border of Russia.  That is all but a lost cause.  Clearly, the Eastern Bloc is anti-Russian in so many areas it is almost frightening.  They still feel the ominous presence of Russia on their Eastern border, however, it is a magnitude smaller influence than in the past.  Indeed it is the Eastern bloc countries that now are Russia's chief opponents while the old Western Europe sees Russia as a possible benefactor.  Thus while Russia caters to the desires and needs of Western Europe, their expansion looks once again at a now open frontier, the Middle East and South Asia.

Russian dollars for expansion are clearly being channeled into the Middle East.  Huge arms deals replicate the days of earlier Middle East conflicts between "East and West" and not too coincidentally, the Soviet support is for nations attacking Israel.  The Russians are still funding anti-Semitism, and arming up those nations intent upon destroying Israel.  This time, however, the nations are those rogue nations with a new goal in mind. Not just satisfied with destroying Israel, these nations are routinely expressing their real sentiment.  Replacing governments with those more attuned to their ideals.  Sound familiar?  Instead of Marxism, Socialism and Communism at work, we have Islamic Extremism bent upon extermination of freedoms the world over. Totalitarian, yes.  Discriminatory, absolutely.  Lethal, definitely.  Chaotic, of course.  And right along with old time Russian skullduggery.

And the Russians, as predictable, are "all in!".  Anyone who wants nuclear technology can have it from the Russians.  Anyone needing modern weaponry to "fight off" Western threats can have it for oil dollars.  Worse, vapid, witless European nations have joined the fray, trading their security for oil dollars and nuclear proliferation blood money, and ignoring the alarms bells of new Russian expansion.

Russia is less careful then during the Old Cold War, with public disclosures testifying to a defiant "Bear" supplying guns, explosives and ammunition directly to Hamas, Fatah, and Hezbollah in order to satisfy those group's lust for killing not only Jews, but through the Iraqi War support of Sunni and Shiite insurgents, Iraqi Muslims as well.    Russia provides nuclear bomb making facilities to Iran disguised as "peaceful nuclear power" for a nation whose oil supply boggles the mind.  Russia's arms sales to Iran and Syria will shortly reach proportions larger than the build up of the Arab states in the sixties.  From high tech aircraft to newly developed surface to air missile and radars, the Soviets are in this for the long haul.  The Chinese add their own versions of high tech as well, radar sets designed to take away the advantage of stealth technology and surface to surface battlefield missiles sold to Iran and then pointed at the Persian Gulf -- all available for a decade to anyone in the Middle East desiring to resist "American Imperialism".

The rhetoric from the old Cold War is visible today as well.  Recently, Vladmir Putin laid down a velvet lined gauntlet by clearly stating it was the Americans who are creating wars and violence in the world, with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad extolling Jihad against the Israeli and American aggressors.  Once again the police are being called the problem, not the criminals.  For those of us paying attention to the world climate during the old Cold War, it is hard to forget Castro parroting various Soviet leaders word for word and right on cue.  Today we have Venezueala's Hugo ("Fidel") Chavez and Iran's Mahmoud ("Destory Israel") Ahmadinejad parroting Vladmir Putin. Feels and looks like the same Old Cold War rhetoric, and has the same intent -- to de-popularize the Americans, destabilize the regions at risk, and rationalize their extremist world dominating intent through chaos.


Not So Cold for Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon, Israel and U.S. Troops Overseas

Before we continue, we should point out that this Cold War is not so cold for many people.  Palestinians in Israel have had no let up, and all the Israeli peoples, Jew and Arab alike,  live in a constant barrage of insecurity, death, and destruction.  Afghanistan remains in turmoil with the Taliban and Al-Qaeda remnents trying to reform into classic nation threatening outfits on the battlefield.  In Lebanon, Iranian and Syrian backed Hezbollah continues to thrust at Mariannite Christians, Jew and Muslim alike, fostering the chaos that allows attacks on Israel on a nearly regular basis to occur without the new government's consent.  And of course in Iraq, a civil war between Sunni and Shiite, fueled by Syria, Iran, and Russian arms, has created the worst sectarian violence in modern history.

Not so cold this New Cold War. 

Of course Putin and Ahmadinejad would have us believe it is all the fault of an out of control United States, and sadly many in the U.S. Congress seem to believe this fantasy.  The liberalization of America and the pacification of our Congress places kindness over survival and heaps blame on the U.S. President for standing up to tyranny and murderous intent around the world.  This makes America the bad guy, and Putin and Ahmadinejad, the unfortunate victims of American violence. 

And while this New Cold War appears to be one-sided, we point out that the real world information on the subject is strikingly dis-similar to the propaganda emanating from the leader of the former Soviet Union.


The Data

Below we identify the nexus of Russian involvement in the Middle East. It is an astounding replication of Cold War opposition to American and other "Western" nations' efforts to deny worldwide, anti-democratic ideological tyranny.  We should note that any weapons that wind up in Iraq or Afghanistan will wind up killing American or other Coaltion soldiers as well as Iraqis and Afghanis of any sort and description.  Weapons that proceed south through Lebanon wind up killing Israelis AND the opposite faction's supporters in the Occupied Territories (Hamas vs. Fatah and both vs. the Israelis).


Iran
Russian/Chinese Aid
 Purpose
 Old Cold War Parallel
Small arms, ammunition and explosives Profit, oil dollars, chaos in the region, asymmetrical attacks against Israel, attacks against democratic and/or peace process in the Middle East - Finds of caches of Iranian weapons in Iraq don't get much press coverage anywhere in the world, and in fact when they do get attention, it is derisive and it is implied the evidence is faked or inconclusive.  Made in Iran just doesn't seem to mean anything to Iranian Arms apologists.  These weapons kill Shiite in large numbers in Iraq, but also any Muslim Iraqi working for the government of Iraq, or at U.S. coalition facilties.   When funneled through Lebanon by Hezbollah, these weapons kills Jew and Arab alike in Israel.
 Cuba and South American
Revolutionaries
Small battlefield missiles - Shoulder launched rockets.
Profit, oil dollars, destruction of Israel, destruction of democratic and/or peace process in the Middle East. 
North Korea, North Vietnam
Aircraft, Avionics, Weapons Systems - Chinese Silkworm and Russian TOR M-1 Rocket systems.
 Profit, oil dollars, destruction of Israel, destruction of democratic and/or peace process in the Middle East, Regional Power Base
 North Korea, North Vietnam
Intercontinental Missiles -
Russian SCUD technology, rocket motors, and parts
 Large area of threat umbrella, allows Iran to become a world power through threats of use of intercontinental ballistic missiles
 Cuba
Nuclear Power Plants, nuclear materials production equipment - Natanz and Bashir plants (French and German help early on)
 Profit, oil dollars, influence in the region, threaten Israel and secondarily threaten Middle Eastern neighbors, Iranian gains in political and economic power Aid to Israeli Foes in 1950s through 1980s
(Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Saudis)
Political Cover - No votes and harsh rhetoric against sanctions against Iran.
 Disrupt political process in the world political scene at any cost,
For instance, oppose American and/or Western votes at every opportunity in U.N., mask allied intent by subverting sanctions, actual use of force, and any means to thwart world pressure against allies. Also obsfucate financial dealings that contradict public positions on enforcement of any sanctions that exist.  Persistent anti-American rhetoric		 U.N. Security Council
Votes and Vetos


Syria
Russian Aid
 Purpose
 Old Cold War Parallel
Small arms, ammunition and explosives Profit, oil dollars, chaos in the region, asymmetrical attacks against Israel, attacks against democratic and/or peace process in the Middle East - These weapons also flow into Iraq to bolster the Shiite insurgents ability to kill any kind of Muslim, especially those working for the governement or Sunni no matter where they are.
 Cuba and South American Revolutionaries
Small battlefield missiles and Shoulder Launched Rockets Profit, oil dollars, destruction of Israel, destruction of democratic and/or peace process in the Middle East North Korea, North Vietnam
Aircraft, Avionics, Weapons Systems
 Profit, oil dollars, destruction of Israel, destruction of democratic and/or peace process in the Middle East, Regional Power Base
 North Korea, North Vietnam
Intercontinental Missiles
 Large area of threat umbrella, allows Iran to become a world power through threats of use of intercontinental ballistic missiles
 Cuba
Political Cover
 Disrupt political process in the world political scene at any cost,
For instance, oppose American and/or Western votes at every opportunity in U.N., mask allied intent by subverting sanctions, actual use of force, and any means to thwart world pressure against allies. Also obsfucate financial dealings that contradict public positions on enforcement of any sanctions that exist.  Persistent anti-American rhetoric 		U.N. Security Council
Votes and Vetos


Hezbollah
Russian Aid
 Purpose
 Old Cold War Parallel
Small arms, ammunition and explosives Profit, oil dollars, chaos in the region, asymmetrical attacks against Israel, attacks against democratic and/or peace process in the Middle East
 Cuba and South American
Revolutionaries
Small battlefield missiles (SA-18) and Shoulder Launched Rockets (RPGs) and Anti-tank weapons.
 Profit, oil dollars, destruction of Israel, destruction of democratic and/or peace process in the Middle East - Note that Russian weapons flow both directly from Russia as well as through Hezbollahs main sponsor Iran.  These weapons are battlefield quality, intended to destroy Israeli armor and soldiers
 Congo, Libya, Algeria
Political Cover
 Disrupt political process in the world political scene at any cost,
For instance, oppose American and/or Western votes at every opportunity in U.N., mask allied intent by subverting sanctions, actual use of force, and any means to thwart world pressure against allies. Also obsfucate financial dealings that contradict public positions on enforcement of any sanctions that exist.  Persistent anti-American rhetoric 		U.N. Security Council
Votes and Vetos



Hamas/Fatah
Russian Aid
 Purpose
 Old Cold War Parallel
Small arms, ammunition and explosives
 Profit, oil dollars, chaos in the region, asymmetrical attacks against Israel, attacks against democratic and/or peace process in the Middle East - These weapons are found constantly in casches in Palestine only when Israeli Army and Police go looking and oddly are rarely seen as any sort of smoking gun by the liberal Europeans or American Liberal media establishment.
 Socialist Revolutionaries
In Europe
Small battlefield missiles and Shoulder Launched Rockets
 Profit, oil dollars, destruction of Israel, destruction of democratic and/or peace process in the Middle East Congo, Libya, Algeria
Political Cover
 Disrupt political process in the world political scene at any cost,
For instance, oppose American and/or Western votes at every opportunity in U.N., mask allied intent by subverting sanctions, actual use of force, and any means to thwart world pressure against allies. Also obsfucate financial dealings that contradict public positions on enforcement of any sanctions that exist.  Persistent anti-American rhetoric 		U.N. Security Council
Votes and Vetos


Conclusion

So who is the source of violence and wars in the World?  The U.S.?  Hardly.  What Putin and his proxies want you to believe is that their murderous chaos intended to destroy democracy in the Middle East is all the fault of the country invested in preventing wholesale slaughter and the overthrow of democratic governments.  That too is familiar from the Old Cold War.  The good guys are being painted to be the bad guys.  This go around, far too many people are buying the nonsense that it is all America's fault.  Our own left wing media is part of the problem, with Europe's media AND governments contributing through lliberal bias, apathy and indecision. 



Update:

8/7/2008:

Fighting between Georgian government troops and separatists it South Ossetta, watcher warilly by so called Russian "peacekeepers" exploded into all war as a small number of Russian soldiers were killed during clashes between the two sides.  Very quickly, Russian forces flooded across the Georgina border and by 8/17/2008 had all but chased Georgian troops out of  South Osseta, capturing key government facilities and essentially annexing South Osseta from Georgia. 


8/21/2008:

With the world demanding a stop, Russia agreed on paper to a cease fire and to withdraw, while, not too unpredictably, continuing to move forward, consolidate positions and finally digging in for what looks like a long stay on 8/21/2008.

During the crisis, as Poland hinted that it was about to make a deal with the U.S on missile defense, received a public warning that Russia would make moves "other than diplomatic" in response to any such deal.

The invasion of Russia's neighbor on its southwestern border sent chills through Eastern Europe.  Poland, long in negotiations over hosting a set of missile interceptors as part of the so called U.S. Missile Defense Shield, signed an agreement on 8/20/2008 for that hosting while  the Ukrainian and Checoslovakian governments watched the Georgian situation with more than simple interest.

NATO, while condemning Russias's aggression, passively waved their hands appeasing the Russians and made no secret they were worried about Russian control over oil supplies by Russia.  Indeed, concerns over the economic impact of Russia's reaction to any NATO movements is frightening, however, the appeasement only serves to fuel Putin's moves, perhaps, to grab more power regionally as well as worldwide.

"The uncertainties created by a resurgent, oil-rich Russia also is likely to raise questions here about the broader US military posture, and whether or not to scrap plans to bring more US troops home from Europe.

Even before the current crisis, the US military had put brakes on the drawdown, opting to keep 40,000 troops in Europe for at least the next couple of years.

"The US decision to pull troops out of Europe was based on a belief that Russia had become democratic, and peaceful," said Loren Thompson of Loren Thompson who heads the Lexington Institute, a non-partisan think tank. "Many policymakers in Washington will now be rethinking whether that will be prudent or not.""



Sources:
  1. Hezbollah Allegedly Acquires SA-18 SAMS, Middle East Intelligence Bulletin, April, 2003
  2. Russia's Nuclear and Missile Technology Assistance to Iran, Michael Jasinski, Center for Non Proliferation Studies, 6/22/2003
  3. Russia, Iran Finalize Spent Fuel Agreement, Christine Kucia, Arms Control.Org, Jan/Feb 2003
  4. Russian Nuclear ...Change In U.S. Policy Needed, Christina Chuen, Center for Non-Proliferation Studies, 3/27/2003
  5. Russia equips Iran for war, Jospeh Farah, WorldNet Daily, 12/02/2005
  6. Russia and Syria Sign Major Weapons Deal, World Net Daily, Arron Klein, 1/28/2005
  7. Russia's Hamas gambit, Fred Weir, Christian Science Monitor, 02/21/2006
  8. What Does Putin Want? Leon Aron, Commentary Magazine, December 2006
  9. Russia Names Terrorist Groups, BBC, 7/28/2006
  10. Putin Accuses U.S. of Sparking New Nuclear Arms Race, A.P., Fox News, 02/11/2007
  11. Moscow Tehran Ties - The Bear Are Hunting The Eagle, Oliver North, Fox News, 2/22/2007
  12. The Dawn of a New Cold War, Ian Bremmer, Newsweek, MSNBC, 2/26/2007
  13. Ahmadinejad: U.S. Israel Cause Problems, Mohamed Osman, A.P., Fox News, 03/01/2007
  14. Russia Sees Great Opportunities in 2007 for State Armaments Firm Rosboroneksport, John C.k. Daly, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 03/01/2007
  15. Terror-Sponsorship by Non-Islamic Countries , Interview with Dr. Joseph Douglass, Jr., Ryan Mauro, as appears on The Final Phase.com, 12/31/2004 (Posted May 7, 2005)
  16. Putin In Nuclear Threat Against Europe, Telegraph of UK, 7/05/2007
  17. Russia's Role in an Unstable Middle East, Alexander Nemets, NewsMax.com, 05/06/2008
  18. Iranian rockets too short-range to justify missile shield, Russia says, The Guardian UK, 7/11/2008
  19. Russian Bombers Could Be Deployed to Cuba, Washington Post, 7/22/2008
  20. Russia Meddling in Latin America, Baxter Bulletin, 7/28/2008
  21. Russian anti tank armour weapons to built in Jordan, Pakistan Daily, 7/30/2008
  22. Russia 'Invades' Georgia as South Ossetia Descendds Towards War, Telgraph of UK, 8/8/2008
  23. Russia: Poland Risks Attack Because of US Missiles, ABC News, 8/15/2008
  24. US, Poland Sign Missile Shield Deal Amid Russian Opposition, DefenseTalk, 8/21/2008
  25. Russian Troops Put Up Fortifications Around Georgia as Kremlin Promise Friday Pullout, A.P., 8/21/2008
  26. NATO Says Russia Calls Halt to Military Cooperation in Response to Tensions Over Georgia, A.P., 8/21/2008
  27. Pentagon Considers Next Moves to Counter Russia:  Analysts, AFP, 8/20/2008





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