From the Original Overview at the Air Force Air University, http://tuvok.au.af.mil/au/database/projects/ay1995/acsc/95-002/chap3/iraqovr.html
Chapter 5: Challenges to Stability
Military Power
/ Weapons of Mass Destruction / Iraqi-Kuwaiti Relations
/ UN Sanctions / Internal Opposition
Iraq remains defiant in the face of UN sanctions
Despite the devastation inflicted upon Iraq's military during DESERT STORM, Baghdad has made steady progress with its reconstitution and remains one of the strongest military forces in the region. In the years following DESERT STORM, Iraq has fielded an army of 27 divisions, including eight which are Republican Guards. While this is a significant decrease from its pre-war 57 division, 1.2 million man army, it is far more capable than other peninsula ground forces and poses a major threat to regional stability.
The deployment of two Republican Guard divisions to the Kuwaiti border in October 1994 demonstrated that with the consolidation of heavy lift assets and augmentation by national transportation infrastructure, Iraq can rapidly move military units from one section of the country to another. Clearly, Iraq has the military capability to conduct short-term, limited objective, multi-division offensive operations against Kuwait and northeastern Saudi Arabia which would require a coalition response.
Iraq aspired to possess all types of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) to some extent and has demonstrated a willingness to use chemical weapons and ballistic missiles. United Nations Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 687 calls for the elimination of Iraq's WMD and ballistic missiles with ranges greater than 150 km. To date, the United Nations Special Commission ( UNSCOM) and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have conducted over 100 inspections in Iraq to monitor disarmament, and have supervised the destruction of significant Iraqi nuclear, chemical, and ballistic missile capabilities. In the summer of 1994, a chemical destruction group completed their two-year-long mission of eliminating nearly 28,000 Iraqi chemical munitions and several thousand tons of chemical weapons (CW) agents and precursors.
Despite these destruction efforts, certain aspects of Baghdad's WMD programs may never be uncovered. Iraq retains the scientific and technical infrastructure to eventually restart these programs. To guard against such resurrections, both UNSCOM and the IAEA have begun the long-term monitoring of Baghdad's arms potential. After nearly a year of preparation, UNSCOM Chairman Rolf Ekeus announced on 10 October 1994 that the monitoring regime was "provisionally" operational. UNSCOM believes Iraq has not been completely forthcoming with information on past weapons efforts, particularly in the area of biological agents. Concerns increased after the December 1994 discovery of previously undisclosed germ cultures (for cholera, tuberculosis, and the plague) that may have been part of an Iraqi program for offensive biological warfare. Inspectors are pressing Baghdad for complete details of all previous WMD activities in order to begin full-scale monitoring. The long-term monitoring program is envisioned to continue indefinitely.
Iraq announced on 10 November 1994 that it formally recognized Kuwaiti sovereignty and the UN demarcated borders in compliance with UNSC Resolution 833. Nevertheless, Iraq's behavior in the past has demonstrated that Saddam Hussein abides by international obligations only when he perceives them to be in his direct interest. The recognition of Kuwait, which was announced days before a UN Security Council sanctions review, was clearly a ploy to gain relief from the sanctions. Despite this, other issues remain which preclude an early lifting of the embargo. Among these is Iraq's failure to return Kuwaiti military equipment that it seized during its occupation of the emirate. Baghdad has integrated much of this equipment into its armed forces, and most of the equipment that it did return was badly damaged. Additionally, the issue of Kuwaiti prisoners of war (POW) remains unresolved, with Kuwait insisting that approximately 600 Kuwaitis continue to be held by Iraq.
The United Nations embargo has all but crippled the Iraqi economy and has greatly hindered Iraq's ability to reconstitute its military. With resources scarce, Iraq has chosen to focus its reconstruction efforts away from the civilian economy and towards its military-industrial infrastructure. Although prohibited from importing arms under the embargo, Iraq has some indigenous arms manufacturing capability. For example, Iraq can manufacture some parts for its older Russian aircraft, and has shown the ability to refurbish armored equipment damaged during DESERT STORM. Iraq can also produce ammunition, small caliber weapons, and mortars. Additionally, part of Iraq's reconstitution effort has included the incorporation of selected sophisticated former Kuwaiti equipment into its operational inventory.
In the almost four years since the end of DESERT STORM, Saddam Hussein has weathered many direct and indirect challenges to his regime. Since April of 1991, the regime has endured an active insurgency in the south, the loss of its sovereignty over northern Iraq, a debilitating economic embargo, and several rumored coup attempts. In southern Iraq, Shiite insurgents have actively continued their operations. Iraq's counterinsurgency effort in the south has focused on denying the insurgents their support base and their habitat. To do this, Iraq has worked to dry up the marshes by channeling the water and feeding the run-off into the Euphrates river. The drying of the marshes makes it difficult for the Marsh Arabs to sustain themselves and has severely limited the ability of the insurgents to take refuge and maneuver. While it appears Baghdad has control of the situation, the insurgent problem in the south is likely to continue indefinitely.
The Kurdish opposition in the North remains fragmented, and serious infighting has occurred between various factions over the past year. Nevertheless, over half of Iraq's ground strength remains positioned opposite the Kurdish autonomous zone as a threat against the continued autonomy of the region. The possible international repercussions of any actual incursion into the Kurdish zone, however, have deterred Iraq from any overt aggression. Selected bombings and acts of terrorism, probably sponsored by Baghdad, continue. PROVIDE COMFORT forces on the ground in the Zakhu area have acted as an additional deterrent to any significant Iraqi offensive ops. Once sanctions are lifted, Iraqi forces will probably go on the offensive to reassert control of the Kurdish North.
