From the Original Document at the Air Force Air University
http://tuvok.au.af.mil/au/database/projects/ay1995/acsc/95-002/chap5/external.htm
Chapter 5: Challenges to Stability
Dissolution of the USSR
/ Arab - Israeli Conflict / India - Pakistan
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the newly independent nations bordering the northern periphery of the Central Region have continued to develop as sovereign entities. Each state, though, is facing instability brought on by historical animosities and ethnic hatreds, border disputes, political differences, religious intolerance, economic disarray, and outside interference. In addition, a major issue for these nations is to build a sense of nationalism after 70 years of Soviet repression---in some countries, a nationalism that has never before existed.
It is in this uncertain atmosphere that new relationships are developing between these newly emerged nations and their neighbors to the south in the Central Region. Iran, Turkey, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia all enjoy some degree of ethnic, linguistic, or cultural/religious ties to the region, and along with Russia are competing for influence there. They see the region as a source of natural resources, a new market for goods, and fertile ground for religious teachings. The region's strategic importance has not gone unnoticed either, and Russia especially is energetically pursuing military ties with some of the new nations.
In the near- to mid-term, these emerging countries will require extensive humanitarian and economic assistance to forestall radical elements and improve their internal stability. The Central Region countries will continue to exert a strong influence, for good or ill, in the development of these states and regional peace and stability.
The recently signed declaration between Israel and the PLO presents real hope for peace
After 45 years of hostility and several wars, Israel and the PLO signed an historic declaration of principles calling for the creation of an independent Palestinian entity in the Gaza Strip and Jericho. The positive momentum of this peace agreement has reduced the potential for renewed conflict, however extremists on both sides threaten near-term progress. Plans for administration of the declaration continue, but further complications are expected as final implementation is negotiated.
Israel and Jordan ended their state of war in July 1994 and signed a peace treaty in October. Historical issues of dispute such as water rights, border demarcation, and territorial integrity were addressed in this treaty. Jordan and Israel are expected to conclude a variety of economic agreements now that the peace treaty is approved. Meanwhile, peace talks between Israel and Syria continue to drag on. The Israel-PLO and Israel-Jordan peace accords will add new momentum to the peace process and will bring pressure on Syria to reach an agreement with Israel.
While present treaties and negotiations are encouraging and all sides are committed to implementing the accords, we should expect further complications. Until all Arab nations in this region have made peace with Israel, this problem will continue to have profound influence on the social, political and military situation in the area.
Kashmir remains contested
South Asia remains an area poised for both formidable growth and the possibility of regional conflict. Programs initiated by the governments of Pakistan and India to improve their economies and standards of living have had a positive effect, but stability is threatened by the possibility of hostilities over Kashmir, and other issues.
Despite two wars between Pakistan and India over Kashmir, the problem remains unresolved. Prime Minister Bhutto continues to aggressively promote the right of self-determination for the Kashmiris. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Rao contends that it is an internal problem, which India reserves the right to resolve without external interference. India maintains over 300,000 military and paramilitary forces in Kashmir who, until recently, enjoyed relative freedom of action when dealing with the local populace. Indian excesses and Pakistani concern resulted in a recent focus of world attention on the area. This led to heightened tensions between India and Pakistan and finally to a resumption of secretarial level talks between the two countries in January 1994.
After nearly 50 years of friction over Kashmir, leaders on both sides have expressed a willingness to negotiate. Although continuing political dialogue could ultimately result in a compromise acceptable to all parties, Indian intransigence regarding offers of outside mediation also could lead to another impasse and the possible cessation of talks. Unless the situation in Kashmir is resolved in the near future, tensions could escalate into another major Indo/Pak war.
