Overview
/ Weapons of Mass Destruction / Regional Influence
/ Abu Musa & Tonb Isles Dispute / Internal Conditions
Chapter 5: Challenges to Stability
Overview
/ Weapons of Mass Destruction / Regional Influence
/ Abu Musa & Tonb Isles Dispute / Internal Conditions
Iranian President Rasfanjani
Iran remains the single greatest long-term threat to peace and stability in the Central Region. President Rafsanjani continues efforts to rearm and modernize Iran's military forces and is aggressively pursuing development of its weapons of mass destruction program despite severe economic problems. Russia, China, and North Korea, Iran's primary sources for arms purchases, have provided T-72 tanks, Kilo-class submarines, and ballistic missiles. Iran's quest for hegemony is seen as an attempt to regain what it regards as its traditional position of preeminence. The purchases of Kilo-class submarines, the acquisition of modern missile patrol boats, and reinforcement of southern Arabian Gulf islands all enhance Iran's ability to interdict strategic SLOC's. Iran's efforts to rebuild its military and develop weapons of mass destruction are continuing indicators of Iran's desire to project power. As such, containment of this rogue state will pose a serious challenge for the foreseeable future and remains one of the top priorities for the United States Central Command.
USCENTCOM believes that Iran, despite being a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, continues to aggressively pursue nuclear weapons technology through deals for reactors and other materials for various portions of the nuclear fuel cycle from Russia and China. Iran hopes to overcome its technical weaknesses by purchasing "dual-use" technology from both Eastern and Western suppliers. As it matures, Iran's civilian nuclear infrastructure will provide scientists with valuable experience that can be applied to a weapons project. However, without specific outside technical assistance, the development of nuclear weapons in Iran before the year 2000 is unlikely. Iran has admitted possessing chemical weapons and is likely working hard to develop biological weapons as well. Tehran is believed capable of producing both nerve and blister agents, as well as some of the precursor chemicals used to make these agents. Iran currently possesses both the 300 km Scud-B and 500 km Scud-C ballistic missiles and is reported to have contracted with North Korea to purchase the No Dong missile with a range of up to 1,000 km. In the face of a severe economic crisis, Iran's military buildup and obsession with weapons of mass destruction underscore its ambition to dominate the region and, possibly far beyond.
Tehran is seeking to expand its diplomatic relations -- both in the region and globally -- as a means of increasing its influence and reclaiming the role of a regional power. In addition to expanding diplomatic relations, Iran also supports militant Islamic groups worldwide, promoting anti-Western sentiment wherever possible. Iran continues to seek closer ties with Pakistan, in hopes of receiving improved technology and military training assistance. Iran is also attempting to gain increased influence with Afghanistan, but instability within the Afghan government has precluded any real gains. Consequently, Iran's near-term efforts in Afghanistan will be limited to promoting economic concerns and cultural relations.
Envisioning itself as the regional leader of the Islamic world, Iran has placed great emphasis on expanding ties with countries of the Former Soviet Union. Tehran will continue to increase trade and expand economic, cultural, and religious ties with the Central Asian Republics, particularly Azerbaijan and Tajikistan. Iran has also approached some Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries concerning military cooperation and security in an effort to gain additional access and influence in the region. Iran wants to be included in any regional security arrangements and warns GCC countries about entering into security agreements with foreign governments such as the U.S. and Russia. Some Gulf countries already have economic ties with Iran, and additional relations could widen existing fractures in the GCC.
The dispute with United Arab Emirates over ownership of Abu Musa and the Tonb Islands continues. Although meetings have been scheduled in attempts to resolve the dispute and the UAE hopes to take the matter to the International Court of Justice, Iran maintains a substantial troop presence on the islands and continues to fortify all three. Iran's denial that there is any need for arbitration, coupled with their recent military build-up, indicates that they have no intentions of relinquishing the islands.
Living conditions for the average Iranian remain poor and will likely get worse unless Iran can recover from its fiscal problems. Worsening economic conditions within Iran pose the most serious threat to domestic stability. Declining oil revenues, runaway inflation, and devaluation of the rial have resulted in Iran's failure to pay foreign creditors, necessitating the rescheduling of payments and the slashing of imports. Furthermore, Iran's rapidly growing population, which is increasing by approximately one million every seven months, has resulted in high unemployment, placing even further strain on Iran's troubled economy.
Despite some internal political opposition from radicals, there are no viable threats to Rafsanjani's regime. Rafsanjani's close relations with Supreme Leader Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guards, and his firm control of the internal security forces, indicate that his regime is secure. Since Iranian dissident groups enjoy no strong base of support inside Iran they remain little more than an irritant for the regime. The economy has the potential to become the most serious threat facing the regime, and could eventually lead to widespread civil unrest.
