From the Original Document at the Air Force Air University
http://tuvok.au.af.mil/au/database/projects/ay1995/acsc/95-002/chap5/nonmil.htm
Chapter 5: Challenges to Stability
Oil
/ Water Sources / Islamic Extremism
Oil will remain the world's primary source of energy fuel for the foreseeable future. Reinforced by projections for increased demand from industrialized countries as well as emerging third world nations, the importance of oil and its availability will be a principal concern for global economies well into the next century. The outlook for increasing oil demand, combined with the fact that 66 percent of the world's oil reserves reside in the Arabian Gulf region, further highlights the importance of Middle Eastern oil supplies.
Emerging as a significant trend in the world oil market is the growing centralization of world oil production in the Arabian Gulf. The area's share of the world supply is projected to increase from one-fourth today to about one-third by the late 1990s. Adding significance to the level of Arabian Gulf oil production is the expected decline in oil production elsewhere. With fewer alternatives to Arabian Gulf oil reserves, production, and exports, supply disruptions within the region would cause great concern.
In 1995, several important factors could adversely affect the availability of energy supplies from the Middle East. The competition among neighboring countries over existing, new, or anticipated energy resources may heighten tensions in this volatile region. Likewise, the growing concentration of world oil production among Arabian Gulf countries, who are also members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), increases the political dimension that could affect world oil supplies. Ongoing rifts between OPEC members over oil production quotas, market share, and pricing strategies will further erode prospects for greater unity among the membership. A weakened and debt-ridden OPEC could threaten the stability of the region's oil-based economies and negatively impact the world's oil consuming countries. These rifts are expected to heighten as the region's oil producers look for ways to accommodate Iraq's ultimate return to the oil market. Balancing supply with demand will be a central issue if Gulf producers are to avoid instability in their respective economies.
Roughly 12 percent of the oil used by the U.S. comes from this region. For most of our key allies, however, dependence on Arabian Gulf oil is even more pronounced. Oil from the Gulf fills over one quarter of Western Europe's needs, and more than two-thirds of Japan's. With 66 percent of the world's known oil reserves, the region will be the key oil producing area in the foreseeable future. As global economies become increasingly dependent on Middle East oil, any threat to the free market access to the region is a threat to global security. Chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab el Mandeb, and the Suez Canal remain vulnerable to disruption, and Iraqi or Iranian aggression against them could disrupt not only a large portion of world oil supplies, but also the more than 15 percent of all world commerce that is routed through these strategic waterways.
Regional oil reserves
The potential for conflicts over water resources in the region focus on three major river basins -- the Nile, the Euphrates, and the Jordan. Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan all rely on water from the Nile and its tributaries. For each of these countries, projects have been drafted which would divert some of the water, raising concerns over the availability of future resources. Given the projected population increases in the region, consumption demands on Nile River water will quickly surpass current water allocations further straining a volatile situation.
Turkey, where the headwaters of the Euphrates are located, has been developing a series of dams and irrigation projects along the river that may significantly affect downstream users in Syria, and Iraq. Both the quantity and quality of water are at risk, especially if Turkey meets all of its goals. Similarly, Syria and Iraq have ambitious plans involving the Euphrates, which could be threatened if Turkey completes its projects. Without sound, carefully developed water management agreements between users of the Euphrates, water resource limitations will continue to be a potential flashpoint for tensions.
Finally, the Jordan River and its tributaries are the major sources of water for Jordan, Israel, Lebanon, and Syria. In these countries, population growth has exacerbated water demand, leaving little room for improvement in supplies without active measures in place, such as water rationing. Water negotiations will become critical as potable water supplies will be insufficient to meet the demand by the year 2000.
An area of constant concern is the instability caused by radical elements which support Islamic extremist policies as the solution to various societal problems. Extremist activities threaten U.S. interests when they are rhetorically based on grievances about Western influence. In the Sudan, for example, the National Islamic Front (NIF) expands its extremist influence throughout the region by providing safe haven and training camps for terrorist groups and foreign Islamic radicals. Sudan is suspected of training radical elements targeted at other countries in the Horn, as well as Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt. Continued Iranian backing (with both forces and money) of plans to export radical fundamentalism adds to the growing concern of more moderate governments in the region.
