From the Original Document at the Air Force Air University
http://tuvok.au.af.mil/au/database/projects/ay1995/acsc/95-002/chap5/unrest.htm
Chapter 5: Challenges to Stability
Overview
/ Somalia / Sudan / Djibouti
Civil unrest is a pressing concern in Somalia, Sudan, and Djibouti
Another significant challenge to the security of the Central Region is the presence of ongoing civil unrest in several of the regional states. Although Somalia remains the most widely publicized, Sudan and Djibouti also have internal problems that threaten regional stability.
Despite the extended efforts of the world community, the Somalis have yet to reconcile their differences or find national stability. The efforts of the international community resulted in the successful eradication of most of the starvation in the country, but political reconciliation continues to elude the Somalis and the security situation is rapidly returning to the pre-UNITAF conditions of 1992. Since the withdrawal of the main U.S. contingent in March 1994, there has been a steady decline in the security environment. General lawlessness, banditry, and violence have again become commonplace. The inability of the Somalis to resolve their political differences, coupled with the deteriorating security situation served as the impetus for the U.S. Liaison Office withdrawal in September 1994. Despite ongoing political initiatives, resolution of the situation is not expected in the near term. The tendency of the Somali people to resolve their differences with violence has not been abated by their experience with the United Nations. Current events point toward renewed civil war due to clan factionalization, domination of the country by armed elements, and the lack of credible political leaders. The uneasy truce in Somalia today is likely only a temporary lull in a situation that will almost certainly continue unabated for years. Somalia's future as a nation depends on the willingness and ability of a select group of leaders to subordinate clan and individual interests to national security and stability requirements. This is not likely in the foreseeable future.
Stability in the volatile Horn of Africa is also threatened by the situation in southern Sudan, where an estimated 1.5 million people are in need of some form of emergency international relief assistance because of natural disasters and an ongoing, debilitating civil war. The civil war between the ruling National Islamic Front NLF) and factions of the rebel Sudanese People's Liberation Army (SPLA) has been waged continuously for the last 11 years, based on centuries-old ethnic, religious and political issues. The constant fighting forces hundreds of thousands to seek refuge in Kenya, Uganda, Zaire, Ethiopia, and the Central African Republic. Despite efforts by international and regional governments to end the fighting and broker peace between the government, the SPLA and its various factions, the outlook for a peaceful solution is dim. Both sides seem intent on a military solution and neither side sees any issue that would facilitate compromise.
The Republic of Djibouti is experiencing internal strife between the Issa-dominated government and the Front for the Restoration of Unity and Democracy (FRUD), which represents elements of Djibouti's Afar ethnic group. The Afars comprise about 35 percent of Djibouti's population. The FRUD is fighting for true government representation. The ruling Issas, who comprise 60 percent of the population, have held power since independence in 1977. Most of the fighting has taken place in the north and west of Djibouti city. The government controls lines of communication, but the FRUD moves freely throughout the countryside. The most likely outcome will be a negotiated settlement within the next year offering the FRUD more representation in government.
