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Flashpoints - The Full Report

A troubled world in August of 2001

Note:  This report has been superseded by the MILNET September 2004 Report

Far from a new world order and worldwide peace, the Fall of the Soviet Union and the cessation of the cold war has not lessened the otherwise "business as usual" among the human players on this planet.  As this report will show, there are plenty of hotspots begging to become the spark that could ignite another world war, or at minimum a major military campaign requiring alliances and vast movement of troops across oceans and continents.

The report will focus on the following countries clearly defined as flashpoints:
 

This report was inspired by the AFI Research staff's  daily intelligence and reports on the hot spots around the world, as well as a series of reports generated last year --the AP Wire's Flashpont Series.  Our report adds the states broken out from the former Yugoslavia and Indonesia to the AP list as well as nations we believe might be added to the  flashpoint list in the near future -- the "Boiling Cauldrons ".   See sources for more information on additional reading material.
 
 


 

Afghanistan ( map )
The original edition of this report was completed in August of 2001, only a month prior to the events of 9/11. Obviously, this Flashpoint exploded in an unprecedented leap to the forefront of human experience. An update to the Afhgan information is available, and further updates will occur regularly, assuming events in that country stabilize long enough for our writing not to immediately be overcome by events. With the Taliban routed and an interim government in place, it is clear there is a positive direction for Afghanistan. -- MILNET

With a litany of rulers, many if not most assasinated in coups, the government of Afghanistan continues its long history of exceedingly poor leadership resulting in incredibly hard times for its people -- from unrest to outright barbarianizm.  Witness recent Islamic rituals from the third century -- public whippings that would make your hair curl, all over what the rest of the world would consider minor youthful infractions like smoking or smiling at the wrong young woman.  Past leaders probably roll in their graves; King Mohammad Zahir Shah, his cousin Mohammed Daoud, Presidents Noor Taraki,  Hafizullah Amin and Babrak Karmal who finally gave up and asked the Soviets to come and help in December of 1979.  Nearly seven years later, the Soviets gave up trying to fight the resistance, the Mujahedeen, and placed President Najibullah in power.

The new leader became the lightning rod to which the Mujahedeen turned, and the Soviets pulled out after losing more than 100,000 of their own in the struggle.   Ethnic Tajiks pushed until they won the capital in 1992, and established the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan under  President Burhanuddin Rabbani while Najibullah went into exile for four years.  But the Mujahedeen still weren't satisfied, and soon another faction began to rear its ugly head.  A population of Pushan, a sect of mainly Muslim seminary students calling themselves the Taliban ("religious students" or "Students of Islam")  gathered followers over the next two years preaching strict Islamic rule over the portions of Afghanistan they won, until finally in 1996 they too overran the capital, Kabul.  Najibullah was captured and hung outside the great halls and a new era began.

The government withdrew to Panjar province and several warlords tried to fight the Taliban but to no avail until 1998 when the Taliban finally ruled 90% of the country with an iron Islamic fist. That period included destruction of many of the Middle East's valuable treasures as the Taliban ignored art and history in attempts to forge a path for the future.  Today, like in Iran, street whippings continue and crime is VERY hard to find unless it is local Taliban officials committing it.  And while the local warlords have been captured and killed, there are many left in hiding, and of course the former government continues to heckle the Taliban. Like Iran, however, the Islamic Taliban may find themselves forced by the people into less strict interpretation of Islamic law, the "gentle Islam" if you will with only the hardline cleric leadershiop believing the strict laws will keep their people safe.  This makes Afghanistan, for now, a powder keg as forces push to the countries organization and principles of the future.

In June, opposition forces launched a major offensive into the town of Ishkamish, 120 miles north of Kabul.  The attack came after two weeks of peace talks that, once again failed.  Quoted by AP news, the exiled Ambassador to the U.N.  Ghairat Baheer stated on August 13, "The Taliban's stance is very rigid...They don't believe in give-and-take, they don't believe in being part of the international community. They don't know they're living in the 20th century."  More likely the Taliban simply don't WANT to be living in the 21st century, where, much like the Iranian hardliners, they find themselves perplexed by the peoples desires to go outside the overly strict interpretation of Islamic laws.  Take for example the burqa, the woman's veil so prevelent in Islamic nations decades ago.  In Taliban controlled Afghanistan, a woman found without a veil will be whipped in public.  Girls schools have been closed and administrators have been publicly punished for allowing even classrooms of all young woman to work without the veil, to be educated, or to go for food or drink for their families, in what many call rural beliefs rather than those rooted in the Koran -- the Islamic book of holy writings.

With reports of Pakistani intervention in the form of arms for the Taliban, it is clear that the close of the Afghanistanian struggle is far from over.  Terrorist groups active in Afghanistan include:
 

Cambodia ( map )

Harkening back to the relatively easy early days of Prince Norodom Sihanouk, set on the throne of Cambodiaby the French after World War Two, Cambodia became an independent country in 1953.  Living in relative harmony for at least a few years since their independence, Cambodia became the target of Communists and by 1960 Pol Pot (aka  Soloth Sar) began a struggle to take over the country.  By 1968 this became an armed struggle as his Khmer Rouge began to terrorize the countryside,  followed immediately by involvement in the Vietnam War next door.  Lon Nol pushed out Prince Sihanouk, and forced the population of Cambodia into agricultural communes, totally refacing the social structure of the country.  All private property was seized and practically anyone with an education or willing to speak out were killed.  The Vietnamese war spilling into Cambodia didn't help and finally in 1979, the communist government of Vietnam took Phnom Penh, the capital. Pol Pot and his Khmer Rouge fled into the jungles.  Armed with weapons from China, a familar tale in Asia unfolded as the communist guerillas began to flail away at the countries underpinnings, already weak and near collapse. As desperate as things looked, bidding his time was Sihanouk, as he watched his country in turmoil from abroad.

Finally, Prince Sihanouk, with help from the  Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN) in 1982, who feared the spread of communism throughout Southeast Asia, established a new government which was later recognized by the United Nations as a peace accord was signed in October of 1991.  And in 1993, Sihanouk resumed the throne as king.  Eventually Pol Pot made his final mistake, and his Khmer Rouge split, eventually resulting in his death in April of 2000.  But not so his organization.  Sihanouk's son Prince Ranariddh was killed in a coup d'etat in 1997, led by Hun Sen, causing the U.S. to stop aid to Cambodia.

Today, tribunals are convening to prosecute remaining leaders of the Khmer Rouge, with some 1.7 million Cambodians thought to have been murdered by the organization's ministrations from 1975 to 1979 alone.  Many of these were city workers, bankers, and administrators dumped without training and resources into the countryside only to perish as they could not quickly adapt to becoming farmers, most dieing from starvation.

Opposition party leader Sam Rainsey said on the 25th anniversary of the Khmer Rouge takeover, "The only way to exorcise the ghost of Pol Pot and to allow Cambodia to start developing on a new and sound basis is to establish an international and independent tribunal to prosecute the main Khmer Rouge leaders and  expose the truth..."

A terrorist group said to be active (as reported by the government of Prime Minister Hun Sen)  in the country today is the Cambodian Freedom Fighters, which consists of a few Cambodian-Americans.  A well established and funded pro-communist faction retains a large influence in Cambodia and the pro-government Democratic Front of Khmer Students and  Intellectuals provide the student demonstrations typical in today's Cambodia.  The President of Cambodia, Chia Sim, was a former sub-commander in Pol Pot's Khmer Rouge but later become an anti-Pol Pot leader.  Some of the resistance leaders that overthrew Pol Pot and welcomed the Vietnames Communist caretaker government are still in power, including the current Prime Minister, Hun Sen.

The list of terrorist organizations active in Cambodia are:


 

India/Pakistan ( map )  ( map )
MILNET Analysis of India and Pakistan Military Capabilities

A  line in the mountains of Khasmir separates India and Pakistan.  But more than this line has separated the two nations over the centuries.  In fact, like much of Asia, the countrys' difficulties lie in religious and idealogical fervor that some say will never be resolved.  It is not from want of violent attempts or peaceful attempts.  Today, however, the two countries, nuclear armed -- which many say both supports and refutes the Non-Prolifeatoin movement -- "...maybe it could have worked, but look here, it didn't -- and now it's too late..." -- are perched upon a precipice that many say vie with the Arabs and Israelis for the next nuclear conflagaration.

The bitter struggle began well before their simultaneous national independence in 1947, however, it was this split that is upper most in the minds of leaders of both countries.  Islamic leaders demanded the need to split the northern provinces of India into a separate, independent nation as India was about to win her independence from Britain.  Included finally in the negotiations, the Muslims were able to demark the Kashmir province as the dividing line, this line of control between India and Pakistan. The result was the largest trans-migration seen in world history as Hindus in the north crossed into the South to live India, and Muslims in the South crossed into the North to live in Pakistan.  Unfortunately, Kashmir, as one of the "princely states" which had lived somewhat autonomously under British Rule, now chaffed at the boundaries straddled by the Himilaya Valley in the South.

Decades of insurgency and border disputes have not led to any resolution and in 1974, India upped the anty by setting off its first nuclear explosion.  Pakistan's expected response, embarkation on their own nuclear program culminating in their own nuclear test in 1998 following India's second set of tests meant by the new Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party to threaten Pakistan.

Kashmir has been a region full of trouble since 1989, with more than 26,000 lives lost to insurgency.  The region is contested not only by India and Pakistan, but China as well.  An arroganat and increasingly more participatory Chinese government may spell additional trouble for the Indian-Pakistani problems.  In fact, with all three nations possessing nuclear weapons, some analysts think that this is where the first nuclear war will be fought (most consider the U.S. use of nuclear weapons as not being nuclear war since only one side of the conflict had use of the technology).

On August 9, 2001, India declared parts of the Himilaya Valley as a disturbed area, permitting new police powers for Indian security forces in the area, ratcheing up the tension once again.  Home Minister Lal K. Advani  speaking to the Indian parliment,  "I wish to assure this august House that the government shall leave no stone unturned in bringing back peace to Jammu and Kashmir."

On the same day as Advani's speech, a Pakistan-based militant group, Hezb-ul-Mujahedeen, bombed a military truck near the town of Ramsoo, 100 miles north of Jammu, killing its driver.

Another militant separtist group, the All Parties Hurriyat Conference , threatened to renew its violent fight to win Kashmir's independence from India.

Political parties are also well engrossed in the present conflict, with the oppostion parties, Opposition Congress and  Bahujan Samaj Party demanding the resignation of Advani even as the minister place all of Kashmir except the predominatly buddhist area of Ladakh under what amounts to martial law, allowing security forces to arrest anyone without warrant in the "disturbed area".  Human rights activists say the region has been the site of at least 60,000 people with the government admitting to perhaps half that figure.

Terrorist groups in India and Pakistan include:


Northern Ireland ( map )

'The Troubles' continue for the island nation, as the recent hopes hinged on a peace treaty were dashed as the IRA rejected the call for the final step, disarmament, refusing to turn in their weapons.  The centuries old conflict, appears now to threaten to continue well into the future.

While the current struggle between Catholics and Protestants in Northern Ireland can be traced back to the 1700s and French Revolution, where rich landowners blocked the primarily Protestant poor from coming to the aid of French freedom fighters, it is the 20th century that has held the best hope and also identified the immense rift between the two factions.

During World War I one faction or the other chose sides, providing covert help to the Germans or adding to the ranks of British servicemen fighting the Hun.  By the end of the war, the British were fighting guerilla warfare in Northern Ireland, with spates of violence major cities in their own homeland.  London and the Royals soon became a target, with Parliment and Ministers soon to follow.

When Michael Collins, in 1921 agreed to a very poor division of Irish homeland, factions within the IRA began a bloody civil war.  Eamon de Valera led his country to independence in 1932 and the country remained essentially neutral during world war II, again with covert aid to Germany to fight the British.

When Catholic civil rights protestors began demanding changes to Protestant discrimanatory activities against the Catholics, earmarked by civil marches and rallys, violence once again exploded in 1968.  As British military moved in to restore peace, the Provisional IRA began a period of violent bombings against British, British symphatizers, Catholics, and innocents that continues today fostered by an even harder line Real IRA.

British rule began again in Ireland as they closed off Northern Ireland and began to take bloody retribution on the Catholics, with decades of tough-handed anti-terrorist actions.  Eventually with most of the top leadership of the IRA in prison or dead, Britian was faced with some way to withdraw.  Soon, IRA inmates were part of an attempt to establish a government in Northern Ireland, while the rest of Ireland fumed.

John Hume a Catholic protest leader and Gerry Adams of the IRA secretly negotiated a multi-party government that would rule the region, predicated on the IRA denouncing violence.  After nearly 4000 deaths attributed to their modern efforts over the last 30 to 40 years, the IRA finally said it would desists.  Immediately the more violent factions split, publically calling for the murders of the traitors Hume and Adams.  Senn Fein, the political wing was outside the negotiations for years, but finally joined those calling for and end.  Hopes sprung anew as talks progressed.

However, in just a few months, the Real IRA emerged as the most violent of the Anti-british, Catholic terrorists, and has stayed in daily reports of violence since, including their possible training of other terrorists worldwide.

At this latest provcation, the IRA refusing to disarm, it is clear the negotiators have not been able to achieve their goals and the future is indeed bleak for Northern Ireland.  With fears of any terrorist using weapons of mass destruction, it is possible that this region may explode into a new escalation with an attack in Northern Ireland or Britain that will make all other violence pale.

And despite the struggle being, on paper, a simple exercise in will and idealogy, the number of factions and groups involved becries chaos.  No one yet has been able to find the right formula and few believe the violence has ended nor will end in the foreseeable future.

See the MILNET  Irish Troubles factions   list for more information on terrorist groups and those who fight them in Ireland.
 
 
 


Iran ( map )

At one time the heart of the Persian Empire, Iran has been in the public eye as a major troublespot over the last 55 years.  As home for anti-American interests since the fall of the Shah of Iran, Iran has been a thorn in the U.S. side that has yet to be healed.  Despite recent events that might lead one to believe a softening to the western culture may occur, hardline conservative Islamic powers remain in political office and control many aspects of Iranian life. Like the few other strict Ismalic countries it shares the direct interpretation of Islamic law with,  recent Iranian images of  men and women whipped in public  harken back two centuries ago when Arabian warlords ruled the desert kingdoms.

Shia Islam became the country's religion at the start of the 16th century and has endured in both secular and clerical form since then.

In the 19th century, the desert way of life was pressured by the incursions of Russian and Europeans seen most intrusive when the search for oil began in the late 19th, early 20th century.  Many years after World I, Reza Khan, an officer from the Persian Cossack Brigade took advantage of a confused government and was crowned Reza Shah Pahlavi, the Shah of Iran in 1925.  Aiming at removing the religious power from the government, the Shah outlawed the woman's veil, began education of woman and children and brought many western ways to the country.  He became a staunch ally of western nations, buying western goods from Britain and the U.S.  More importantly, he re-negotiated oil rights in the region to make Iran more independent from that economic crutch.  Eventually he abdicated to his son, Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, who became an even stronger ally of the U.S. as he bought modern weapons and openned Iranian airways to western surveillance of the region.  In 1951, however, the Iranian Prime Minister was elected and he nationalized the oil assets.  Faced with strategic oil problems if the prime minister prevailed, the U.S. helped the Shah to stage a coup and put him back in power.

In the early 1960s the Shah led the "White Revolution" where he continued his father's efforts to modernize the country and included education and training programs, and well as redistribution of lands for agriculture and began profit sharing in business -- all in an effort to bring the country into the 20th century.

Clerics lost much of their power in those days and they began a secret effort to up-end the Shah.  The Shah's own iron fisted government which brooked little protest, was seen by many as an oppressive regime and aided the clerics in that effort as they painted the Shah as a devil spawned by the Great Satan, the United States.  Finally the Shah had enough and arrested Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, an Islamic jurist, for his public complaints against the Shah.  Khomeini was exiled in 1964, only to return in 1979 after more than a decade of the Shah attempting to hold the clerics at bay with his secret service the Savak.  In April of 1979 Khomeni took power and declared Iran the Islamic Republic of Iran, cementing a clerical rule that lasted for over twenty years.

Even today, the clerics retain much power and continue their strict and frightening hold over police and courts in Iran.  Thus, the country is threatened by the clash between the popularly elected governement and clerics once again.  Popular elections have given more and more power over the clerics however, with a majority of the elected ministers being reformers.  Not suprisingly, with more and more western culture being allowed by the reformers, relations with the western world, including the United States, has improved.

Terrorist organizations have thrived under the strict Islamic law in Iran over the last few decades.  Many still have ties with those elements believing in Strict Islamic rule and the Jihad.  The list is as follows:


 


Israel and the Palestinians ( map )

A hotspot since their status as an independent nation, Israel continues to fight her Islamic neighbors, only now fighitng is within the borders of annexed territory taken for buffer zones and has spread to Israeli cities directly affecting the population of the tiny country.

Modern history for Israelis and Palestinians includes the war that began 24 hours after their independence on April 26, 1948  the Six Days war, where the armies of Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq attacked. After some six years of battle, the forces finally withdrew, leaving the Israelis with their country but many lost lives and a penchant for over-reacting to any new threat. After an uneasy peace puncuated by massive acts of terrorism for 20 years, the Islamic forces once again began to build around the borders of the tiny nation.  This time, however, Israelis, bolstered by funds and arms from the U.S. and Britain, attacked first and leveled the Egyptian air force on the ground and in decisive tank battles moved their borders of Israel out into the neighboring countries.  The West Bank and Golan Heights became buffer zones against further neighbor's aggression and a new era opened for Israel, one that is yet to be played out.  Instead of focusing on their borders, Israel is now faced with dangers within their new borders as Palestinians chased out during the occupation have returned demanding their own slice of the deserts.

Much like the Irish situation, the Israeli-Palestinian struggle is mainly one of religion and alliances.  The Palestinians want their own Islamic rule and the Israelis are fighting for the live and future of their country and religion.  While circumspect about the fact, it is well known that Israeli at least has the materials  to build and dleliver nuclear weapons, this card having yet to be played and certainly quite useless against the Palestinians.  However, as Israel attempts to deal with her problems internally, threats from outside supporting the Palestinians -- for instance quiet for some time, Egypt says they won't stand for wholesale slaughter of Palestinians and will invade -- may entice the Israelis to play the nuclear card in the form of, and at minimum of, an undergound test.

Today Israel faces extremely hard choices.  Administrations are coming and going quickly as one after another blunts their swords against the onslaught of Palestinian demands for autonomy and their own homeland and the deaths of Israeli citizens or losses of settlement rights by a growing Israeli population. Recent Chronology of Terrorist Incidents and Response

With any number of recent peace talks starting and proceeding to a point with high hopes, only to be dashed with some point of contention followed by outbreaks of violence not only in the West Bank, or Gaza strip, but in the heart of Israel in Jerusalem, Haifa or Tel Aviv.  Clearly this is another flashpoint that will be in the list of such places for some time to come.

Despite several close calls in recent history, the Six Day war was the last invasion attempt Israel has faced.  However, the terrorist threat has existed for the entire life of the country and features the who's who of Middle Eastern terrorism.  See MILNET for further information on the factions involved or a chronology of the early terrorist years that has defined the world of terrorism in the annals of history -- years where nearly a day went by without and attack on an Israeli target in and out of the country.  And for recent events in Israel, see the AFI Research coverage of the Middle East over the last few months.
 
 
 


Serbia (the Balkan States of the former Republic of Yugoslavia) ( map )

The former Soviet antagonist has been the focus of NATO and other former Soviet States since the dissolution of the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia's Socialist government.  Never a well balanced nation through history, the complex ethnic backgrounds surrounding and internal to the nation only served to divide the country rapidly when a strong armed socialist government no longer forced these elements to a begrudging if not happy peace.

One cannot look at recent history without looking first at the historical perspective, one that is even more important than that of the Israelis and the Palestinians.  According to the AP background article, Historical Perspective: Yugoslavia, a Legacy of Ethnic Hatred, by Jason Fields:
 

"The Slavic tribes arrived in the area in the 7th Century as part of a massive migration which  led to the settlement of not only the Balkans but much of Eastern Europe. Around the same time, most of the tribes converted to Christianity.

The Albanians are descended from people who lived in the Balkans for more than 2,000 years. The current Albanians speak a language which originated in those times.

 In the centuries following the Slavic tribes' arrival, the groups formalized into nations which fought wars and  traded with each other. The Great Schism between the Roman and Byzantine churches in 1054 would lead to  further divisions among the inhabitants of the Balkans. Croats became Catholic under pressure from the  Austro-Hungarian Empire (Croatia was conquered by Hungary in 1102. Serbs, Bosnians, Macedonians and  Montenegrins joined the Orthodox Church."

In fact, the region has contributed considerably to the 20th century as well, with the assassination in Sarajevo, Bosnia, of Archduke Franz Ferdinand  the heir to the Austro-Hungarian throne being a major contributor to the onset of World War I.  Following World War I, the Serbs annexed Bosnia and then joined with Croatia and Slovenia to form what was later known as Yugoslavia.

 A fascist Croatian regime during World War II, murdered thousands of Serbs, Jews and Gypsies under the Nazi sponsored government.  Following World War II, a strong Communist government, under Josip Broz Tito, created Yugoslavia, joining together Slovenia, Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia and then broke with the Soviet Union in 1948.

After Tito died in 1980, the country began a slow decade long burn down, with Nationalists rising in power until the internal borders split the country into Solvenia  and Croatia in the Northwest, Bosnia-Herzogavnia in the central west, and Montenegro and Kosovo in the Southwest.  A long North South tract about half as wide as the former Yugoslavia retained that name and government.  Eventually Macedonia and Albania rounded out eight parcels of land where NATO would soon find itself mired.

As time marched on, the religious factions piled atrocities upon atrocities, no one side demonstrating sterling behavior longer than a few years.  The Serbs vs. the Croats.  Bosnian Serbs versu everyone, and ethnic Albanians in Bosnia being slaughtered.  The relatively obscure term, "ethnic cleansing" surfaced from the days of Nazi persecution of non-Aryian races.

Finally in the latter part of the 10th century, the U.S. led NATO forces with the American high tech in attempts to supress the violence in Bosnia and Kosovo.  Hardly a bloodless war, the violent air war and overwhelming ground forces were able to bring some semblance of order to the region.  Left to their own devices, however, governments in the region continue to defy attempts at creating and holding a lasting peace.

Instead of a list of terrorist organizations, the conflict in Yugoslavia and the regions to the south exists due to the locals themselves, with neighbor killing neighbor in choatic civil strife found no where else in the world.  The groups intent upon each other's destruction are:


 

Indonesia ( map )

Indonesia lies in the heart of Southeast Asia and consists of a group of islands grouped off the Malaysian-Singapore southern coasts.  The islands have always been an odd mix of cultures,  religions, languages, and political intrigue.  Its modern history includes emergence as a nation able to compete in world markets from textiles to electronics making it one of the more successful Asian emergents.

However long history of infighting between island cultures and indeed struggles between cultures on any one particular island have culminated in a frightening scenario for the future for its citzens.  To understand the difficulties, you need to look at characteristics of the people and cultures on each of the islands.


 
 


The Former Soviet Union (essentialy Russia and neighboring states)
( map )

The Associated Press Flashpoint Series article ( Historical Perspective: Russia and the Former Soviet Union , Jason Fields, 11/17/00) begins with:

"The remnants of the Soviet Empire lie rusting across almost one-sixth of
 the world's landmass. In the Arctic Ocean the once-proud Soviet nuclear
 fleet rots at its moorings. Giant factories, once the symbols of socialist
 progress, now stand idle or pay their workers in toilet paper, food or even
 coffins. "
No one could write it better.  The wealthiest of the former Soviet countries is of course Russia, and even there times are still extremely tough.  Combined with a flagging economy and angry citizens wondering why the joys of capitalism haven't made their lives any better yet despite the western CDs and blue jeans abundant if you have the cash, a rampant mafia-like criminal element is raping any national wealth that is available.  Former hardliners, learning to speak the language of reform have taken control of the country in a quiet electoral coup that threatens the rest of Europe blind to the awakening bear in their midsts.

Today's Russia and the former Soviet Union is a direct result of the "failed socialist experiment" in the words of former U.S. President Reagan.  In 1917, Vladmir Lenin took the reigns of government abandoned by the Czars and his bumbling succesors.  Lenin advocated and was successful in creating a Communist regime that re-aligned the entire nation following a bloody civil war.  The purges of those resisting the new national imperative continued after Lenin's death as Joseph Stalin took control.

The Soviet Union was an uneasy ally to the Western Nations as they battled the Third Reich and Japan during World War II.  After that long war, the Soviets quickly consolidated their empire by first political means and then military might, resulting in their border being streteched into Poland and Yugoslavia as well as annexing the Eastern half of Germany as part of their spoils after the war.  For years the Soviet Union's borders was called the Iron Curtain, both because little was heard about life on the "other side" and because of the Iron fist Stalin and his successors used to rule the vast territory.

The western Europe and U.S. allies formed the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and set a stake in the ground, guarding against a ground war coming across the Fulda Gap in Germany, and the Bering Straight in the Atlantic.  The cold war had begun later  to be symbolized by the Berlin Wall, a concrete barrier separating East Berlin from West Berlin, with the German capital sitting inside the East German zone of control.

After some 40 years, it all came to a quick and surprising end as both economics and internal struggles could not hold up to western pressures and internal strife.

Today, the former nations of the Soviet Union are not prospering well.  The Balkan nation of Yugolsavia has been the site of two wars with European and U.S. intervention, and the Russians face a continuing revolt in Chechnya.  The common Russian citizen has not reaped the benefits of democracy especially as the entire world economy stumbles.  Terrorism in Russia and the other former states is led by separtists of various flavors and include:


 
 

Boiling Cauldron's

Apart from those places already known or perceived to be heated to that rare temperature right before flashover, there are a number of countries where dissent, inter-racial or inter-religious conflict, or even pure economics threaten to boilover, add fuel to the fire, and themselves become conflagaration.

This section of the report focuses on:
 


 
 
 

Philippines ( map )

The Philippines, a long time favorite of U.S. Foreign Policy, has emerged as a World trouble-spot, much as each of the English colonies did as they too gained their Independence.  Not remarkably, the Philippines problems began in modern history after the conclusion of World War II.  What is remarkable about the nation is that it is composed of some 1000 islands and many diverses cultures that, for the most part live well together and where inter-island migrations rarely produce violence. 90 percent of the islands' occupants are Christian Filipinos, but countered by large Muslim cultures on Mindanao and northern Luzon.

Having been seized by the Japanese during World War II, the island's people had essentially fled into the hills or suffered the fate of most of the peoples taken by the Japanese during the war -- death or cruel subservance.  However, the government officials knuckled under to Japanese  invasion and attempted to help shield the common Philippine citizen from the Japanase.  A U.S. Major left behind as U.S. troops were finally thrown off the island, pinned on stars and led a guerilla effort that frustrated the Japanese and kept valuable resources tied up throughout the remainder of the war.  The Philippinos, being an Asian race with a long history of conflict, were survivors, however and when McArthur returned to win back the Island from the Japanese, they came out fighting.

The Philippines was a U.S. protectorate for only a shortime  following the war, with some thinking it would become a U.S. terrority like Guam had become.  In 1945 the country won its independence despite a weary people and U.S. concerns about security and trade.  However, the country quickly became home to both separtists and a particularly virulent socialist wing.  The largest problem stemmed from resentment for those in the government during the war who were thought of as collaborators with Japanese.  One of these was an economic minister responsible for rice production, who became the first elected President of the independent Philippines on July 1946.

Huk guerilla fighters, having learned their stealthy trade to perfection during the war, vowed to take out the collaborators, espeically in central Luzon a pleasent island based on an agrarian life. Several administrations tried to cultivate the Huks over the years, but to no avail.  Finally, with some 11,000 to 15,000 armed Huks impatient with the status quo, their rebellion spreading from Central Luzon to southern Tagalog, northern Luzon, the Visayan Islands, and finally  in Mindanao.  The so called popular revolution withered in 1951, as Huk atrocities soon angered the general population and the Huks eventually dissolved into bandits, murdering and stealing their way of life.  By 1954, with the aid of U.S. advisors, the Huk's were finally marginalized to be ineffective, and the Huk rebellion squeaked to an end.

However, the contension over a territory called Sabah on the island of Borneo with Malaysia and Indonesia led to danger on the northereastern border. Anit-Malayasian sentiment helped elect Ferdinand Marcos to office as President.  After his re-election Marcos' populartiy began to waiver and eventually in order to retain his position of power, he declared martial law.  One of his chief rivals was Benigno Aquino, who was arrested and detained under the auspices of the Martial Law.  Serving decades in Marcos' jails, he eventually was allowed to leave the Philippines to seek medical treatment in the U.S.  Leading an opposition party from exile, Acquino continued to be a very popular figure and eventually decided he needed to return.  He was assassinated by governement troops as he was being escorted off the plane, marking the last days of Marco's regime.  This eventually led to elections in which Aquino's wife Corazon was elected as President, and the Marcos induced dictatorship was ended.

Today the Philippines continues to be a hot bed of anti-American dissent fostered by the communist party as well as several groups intent upon turning the country upside down.  Anti-American sentiment has been stirred up by the communist separtists and several unfortunate U.S. militarymen's activities and today the U.S. presence is all but gone from the islands.  Communist and terrorist activity have plagued the country in the last two decades as well as volcano that continues to bury the former site of Clark AFB in feet of soot and ash.

As the U.S. is winding down the battle effort in Afghanistan, one of the new efforts appears to be anti-terrorist plans combining U.S. advisors with Philippine Army contingents seeking to destroy terrorist groups in the Philippines, the teamwork being requested by Philippines President Acquino.

The following terrorist groups are active in the Philippines and provide a majority of the tension:


 
 
 
 

Sri Lanka ( map )

Once again, the conflict is ethnic in origination, with both separtits and dogma producing an area ripe with plenty of historical backbround leadng to 20th century conflict includng the terrorist preying upon the innocent. Given its history, the small country combines some of the dynamics of the India-Pakistan struggle, thankfully without the nuclear option, as well as separtists problems like Spain which will be discussed later in this report.

The U.S. Department of State site illustrates modern history for Sri Lanka with the following:
 

"Sri Lanka has benefited from the traditions of the rule of law and constitutional government that emerged during 150 years of British colonial rule. At least until the early 1970s, these traditions fostered the development of a political system characterized by broad popular participation in the political process, generally strict observance of legal guarantees of human and civil rights, and an orderly succession of elected governments without the intervention, as has occurred in several neighboring states, of the military. By the early 1980s, however, many observers feared for the future of Sri Lanka's democratic institutions. Some observers contended that constitutional government, rather than curbing the arbitrary use of political power, seemed itself to be shaped by aggressively narrow sectarian interests whose manipulation of the constitutional amendment process excluded large numbers of persons from politics and contributed to ethnic polarization and violence. "
To put it bluntly, Sri Lanka is facing a crisis, a crisis of perhaps their own making.  And quite familiar to reader by now, the seeds of the problem lie in ethnic groups found in the country:  the Sinhalese, the Tamils, the Muslims, and the Burghers.  Language, Culture, and Borders create the dissent in Sri Lanka, less so than race or religion however integrated those two have become with the cultures over the years.
 
As you would expect, the mix of culturs and divisions between different ways of living have produced violence.  There are a number of terrorist groups active in Sri Lanka -- some with India or Pakistani influence or other simply religious based such as Hindus or Muslims -- note too that the Hindu caste system adopted in the country makes for additional friction.
  As in the other countries profiled, Sir Lanka provides a frightening vision into diverse cultures unable to live together.  While not a danger to world peace, certainly Sri Lanka will provide plenty of violent news for years to come.
 
 
 
 


Turkey ( map )

While Turkey is fairly well known for their angry relations with Iraq and the Turkish predicalition for the killings Kurds whenever the opportunity has arisen, there is yet another side to the Turkish problem that promises to boil over and produce horrendous results in the Middle East.

In the last 65 years of the 20th century, Turkish westernization has led to the exploration for oil, natural gas, and other petroleum products, as well as high grade ores of all types.  The result has been alliances with some of the Middle East's most dangerous or wealthy countries as exploitation has begun.  Natural gas and crude will flow through Turkey with sources or destinations in the following countries:
 


Oil and gas pipelines of interest so far are:


One analysis which may indicate the dangers of Turkeys position between the providers and users of oil and gas from these pipelines comes from the Penn State Political Science Department's web site:

"8-27-97  University Park, Pa. -- Russia and Turkey, once rivals in the 18th and 19th centuries, may face off again over vast oil and natural gas reserves in the former Soviet Union."

"Turkey and Russia are already competing for pipelines that would carry oil from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan  and natural gas from Turkmenistan," says Dr. Robert E. Harkavy, professor of political science at Penn State. "The Russians are trying to pressure those countries, all former Soviet republics, into putting the pipelines through Russia, while Azerbaijan prefers that the pipeline go through Turkey. Azerbaijan does not want Russian control of its oil resources." "

The tension comes from a dangerous dip in Turkey's economy, setting fire to the notion that they are having trouble meeting their obligations and therefore putting the pipelines' futures at risk.  The danger is that one or more nations sourcing or depending upon that oil or natural gas may decide it is strategically imperative that the pipelines be seized, thus putting Turkey not in the middle of a financial gold mine, but in the center of a rapidly filling and expanding mine field.

And naturally, being near the cradle of terrorism for the Middle East, terrorist activities abound in Turkey:
 
 
 

China/Taiwan ( map )
MILNET China Page

Everyone knows that mainland China and the small island offshore called Taiwan are a powder keg.  Unlike most of the countries profiled so far, this conflict is not at all about terrorists.  Staring at each other across the straight of Formosa, it is clear that Taiwan separtists have achieved what many thought impossible -- created a separtist movement, accomplished the separation and now are recognized as a major force in the world's economics.  With aid and support from the western world, primarily the U.S. (Taiwan's largest source of exports), Taiwan's place in the world would be secure if it weren't for the fact that the Chinese across the straight lust for the success and chafe at the thought of the litltle island nation's success.  Combined with China's penchant for continuing to modernize its military and push harder and harder at their successful and exceedingly more modern nuclear capability, only the India-Pakistan, or Israel-Arab situations are so frought with danger.

From the prospective of the western world, the problem, of course, is with China.  Never a country with anything approaching a nation with democratic will, China is the strongest communist government left in the world.  With a large enough economy and landspace to survive on its own with little trade, China has never-the-less realized they cannot be 100% isolationists.  And as much as it pains their socialist minds, this means adding profit centers and westernizing key trading areas.  With the lapse of the 100 year lease and return of Hong Kong, China gained an important port for that purpose.  Clearly the world order can use China's desire to become part of the trading party to push for reforms in human rights and hopefully temper China's nasty tendencies which (for centuries as well as  most visible in the last 60  years) which can accuraely arrogantly expansionistic and fostering socialist revolution in every naon around.  Nations who have suffered from Chinese "help" in this respect are Korea, and most of the countries surrounding and including Vietnam.  Chinese support to Pakistan, Iraq, and Iran have fueled nuclear status for one, and possibly a second.

Remarkably, terrorist activity in China is not centered on the China/Taiwan issue, but more on the religious rights and resettlement of the Chinese Tibetian tribes and those supporting the Dali Lama.  China brooks no religious opposition, with the outlawing of the Fun Lung party the most recent of centuries of Chinese religious persecution.  As a fully totalitarian government news of terrorism does not escape, yet there are indications Tibetians continue to fight the Chinese using violnet means.

China's human rights policies are dismal even for the 19th century, let alone the 20th or 21st.  Slave labor exists in vast numbers with western nations unfortunately not listening to those calling for a boycott of China's relatively inexpensive goods.  Militant U.S. citizens anxious to procure assault weapons in an outpouring of constitutional lust for home weaponry turned a blind eye to ammunition and weapons manufactured by slave labor.  Staunch humans rights activists still bought baby carriages or toys made in China with little western clamor over the trade goods peppered with slave produced products. Baby sales and perhaps human breeding body parts or rare human chemicals is an emerging market centered with "production" facilities in China.

And of course, the arrogant Chinese government with its "we do what we want" attitude in world politics defies the best hopes of liberal politicians who say engagement through economical means will help bring the Chinese into the civilized world.  All you have to do is wait long enough.

In the meantime, China's military budget as a percentage far exceeds any countries percentage today, and we are not talking small numbers.  China's military projects include the license of modern Russian MIG fighter productioni on the mainland, and use of state-of-the-art fiber optic links between sophisticated computer technologies.

Development of ballistic missiles continues at an alarming rate. Ballistic missiles threaten both in the conventiol weapons manner as well as the nuclear.  Thus as China builds better, longer range, and more accurate delivery systems, it hardly bodes well for Taiwan.  If rumors of Chinese cruise missiles are true, then Taiwan is even more dange.  Chinese nuclear armed submarines already have the capability to take nuclear agression to any spot on the globe.  Converting land launched cruise missiles to convential, sub launched land attack weapons is almost trivial to a country able in developing military weapons systems as China.  In fact a cruise missile is probably more destablizing than any further nuclear developments.  Additional missile deployment could be viewed as only significant in their ability to strike more targets at one time.before retaliation could take place.  Many of the cold war precepts still exist for western nations and their military defenders.  A recent cooperation pact with Russia does little to provide hope for leaders contemplating China's aggresive tendencies.

Below we list the Chinese nuclear military arsenal, most capable of delivering conventional, chemical or biological weapons as well:
 
 

 
 
    
Name  Description  Count  Yield 
Strategic Nuclear Forces Controled directly by the General Staff 100K
Dongfire 3A (Dong Feng) CSS-2 nuclear capable IRBM 50-100 3.3 MT
Dongfire 4  CSS-3 nuclear capable MRBM 10-20 3.3 MT
Dongfire 5A CSS-4 nuclear cpaable ICBM, deployed 1980 7-10 4-5 MT
Dong Feng 21A CSS-6 IRBM 36 2-300 KT
Dong Feng 31 ICBM ? 1-200 KT
Dong Feng 41 ICBM with MIRV ? MIRV
Xia-Class Submarine SSBN deployed 1981 4
Julang-1/CSS-N-3 1986 SLBM (1700 mi range) 12 300 KT
Julang-1/CSS-N-4 1990s SLBM (8000 mi range)  ? 200 KT
Hong-6 (B-6) long range bomber (3100 mi) 12 1-300 KT
Qian-5 (A-5) short range bomber (400 mi) 30 1 kt to 1 MT
Artillery/ADM/rockets Tactical nuclear weapons 120 1- 20 KT
Silos Armed and hardened Missile Silos intended to survive first strike ? -


 

Spain ( map )

Totally recognizable to anyone studying history, Spain has not really been on the World's radar scope for centuries.  As a member of NATO, spain has contributed to world peace, and particpated in forces that have rotated through those helping fortify the Fulda Gap during the Cold War.  Spain has also contributed in men, machines and finances to the United Nations projects such as policing or observer forces, quietly being a force for peace in the world.

Thus it is strange that we should place Spain in a list of countries that sits near the edge of crisis.  And while some might think we exaggerate, follow the historical background of modern Spain below and you will see we have reason for concern.

From the U.S. Library of Congress Country Study on Spain, we insert the reader into the history lesson following World War II -- It starts with a popular General in the war, General Ferdinand Franco:

"...Whereas there is generally consensus among analysts in designating the regime as authoritarian, there is less agreement concerning the fascist component of Franco's Spain. In its early period, the Francoist state was considered, outside Spain, to be fascist.  The links between Franco's regime and the Roman Catholic Church, as well as the course of international developments, further mitigated the fascist component. Thus, while there was a definite fascist element during the first decade of Franco's rule, most analysts have concluded that early Francoism can more accurately be described as semifascist"
"When Prince Juan Carlos took the oath as king of Spain on November 22, 1975, there was little reason to foresee that he would be the architect of such a dramatic transformation.  More was known of his athletic skills than of his political opinions, and observers predicted that he would be known as "Juan the Brief." "
However, Juan Suarez proved to be an able politician and within a year had, remarkably, pulled off a bloodless coup by creating a huge number of reforms...
"...in December 1976, in accordance with Franco's 1945 Law on Referenda. The Spanish people voted overwhelmingly in favor of reform: about 94 percent of the voters (78 percent of the electorate took part in the referendum) gave their approval. The results of the referendum strengthened the position of the Suarez government and of the king and represented a vindication for those who favored reform from above rather than
revolution. "
What followed Juan Suarez's reforms was a fairly moderate two party system with the far left (Spanish Socialist Workers' Party - Partido Socialista Obrero Espanol--PSOE) and the neo-Franco far right advocates only holding smaller and smaller electoral results at each new election.

However, there remained a long term issue that no leader whether elected or as Monarch had been able to resolve -- the continued threat of Basque Separtists.  To understand them, you need to first understand the demographics of the major ethnic backgrounds in Spain, the Catalans, Galicians, Basques, Andalusians, and the Gypsies - and once again Borders, Language and Culture define the issues *:
  * Note:  Much of the text in the section describing ethincity is cut and paste from the Library of Congress Country Study on Spain.

So while you have a rather stable system of government and happily cooperating ethnic regions in Spain, there is that Basque region with its anti-Western, anti-change, throwback mentality.  And in fact that is where our concern arises.

Basque Fatherland and Liberty ( ETA ) a.k.a Euzkadi Ta Askatasuna

Founded in 1959 with the aim of establishing an independent homeland based on Marxist principles in the northern Spanish Provinces of Vizcaya, Guipuzcoa, Alava, and Navarra and the southwestern French Provinces of Labourd, Basse-Navarra, and Soule. Its membership is in the hundreds and their activities consist primarily of bombings and assassinations of Spanish Government officials, especially security and military forces, politicians, and judicial figures. In response to French operations against the group, ETA also has targeted French interests.

ETA finances its activities through kidnappings, robberies, and extortion. The group has killed more than 800 persons since it began lethal attacks in the early 1960s. ETA was responsible for murdering six persons in 1998 but did not carry out any known killings in 1999. In late November, ETA broke the "unilateral and indefinite" cease-fire it had held since 16 September 1998.  Twelve people were attacked in the eight months of 2001, attacks attributed to the ETA [source: AFI Research, MILNET confidence: 100%].

The ETA has received training at various times in the past in Libya, Lebanon, and Nicaragua. Some ETA members allegedly have received sanctuary in Cuba. Also appears to have ties to the Irish Republican Army through the two groups' legal political wings.

The concern for Spain is that the Basque separtist movement has a long history of creating trouble either through concessions Spansh governments have made over the years, to the current longevity of the movement itself.  Much like the IRA or the Palestinian uprisings, local people are financing, protecting and supplying the terrorists, which means they will continue to create havoc.  Since thi is a so a region perched right alongside the French border and in fact shares many ethnic ties with the people living just across that border, the Basque separtsit movements threatens France as well.
 
 


South and North Korea ( map )  ( map )

The conflict between South and North Korea is probably familiar to most reading this report.  With a war in the mid 1950s that at times threatened to engulf the world in a new World War, with China and Russia facing off the U.S. and the United Nations who were doing there best to keep Communist expansion from over-running the small nation of South Korea.

Today a tense no-man's land lies between the divided country, with a rabid communist regime in the North fighting their internal struggles including famine, and a frankly frightened government in the South facing their own domestic economic strife.

North Korea

North Korea has hinted at the nuclear card, implying they are only a few years (if not months) away from having the components to producing nuclear weapons.  This and their purchasees of components and nuclear power facilities that have dual use, have forced the non-proliferation tready signees, led by the U.S. to put pressure on the North to cease and desist. While fiction writers have predicted and spelled out in great details varioius schemes for a Northern attack on the South, since the war ended, there has been no major attack in either direction across the DMZ.

Decades of nationisitic rhetoric have provided a war of words as well as anxious allies since the two countries agreed to the demilitarized zone between North and South, but have provided few opportunties to resolve the differences.

North Korea today remains one of the last holdout communist nations, practicing a socialist agenda with a very Soviet like government.  It is one of the few cases where we can't find a reason for the conflict based upon culture, language or borders.  Pure politics are at play here with a democratic nation in the South and a socialist-commnist country in the North.

As a closed nation, little is known about popular dissent or terrorism that takes place in Korea, since anything negative reported by the state run media is immediately attributed to illegal South Korean dissident criminals and murders.

South Korea

In the Korea before the Korean War, the deliberate use of violence, including occasional assassination, to express or advance political goals was common among both the right and the left in  Korea after liberation in 1945 and up to the outbreak of the Korean War in June 1950.

Subsequent political violence up to the 1980s, apart from exchanges between police and participants in political demonstrations or rallies, was largely limited to the illegal government use of violence or the threat of violence to suppress dissent and intimidate political opponents. During the presidency of Syngman Rhee (1948-60), for example, the government mobilized the Anticommunist Youth League and members of street gangs to smash facilities of critical newspapers and intimidate opposition candidates for election (see The Syngman Rhee Era, 1946-60 , ch. 1).

The Park government continued illegal police practices, including torture of some dissidents, intellectuals, and even members of the National Assembly, and was often indirectly involved in violence. The Korean Central Intelligence Agency (KCIA) also used various means, including physical threats, to intimidate South Korean journalists in the United States. Such methods continued under Chun, occasionally resulting in the deaths of political defendants under police torture. Police were passively present while hired thugs broke up dissident religious services or union meetings. Under Roh Tae Woo, police handling of political suspects retained some of the illegal violence of earlier times, although improved media freedom also meant greater scrutiny of police misconduct. In contrast with earlier regimes, however, the Roh government permitted prosecution and conviction of police officers and even of military personnel in several cases involving violence during its first year in office.

Public violence against government institutions was rare from the 1950s through the early 1980s. When students overthrew the Syngman Rhee government in April 1960, mobs destroyed the headquarters of Rhee's Anticommunist Youth League. More spontaneous forms of violence often occurred during student protest rallies in the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s, when small numbers of rock-throwing students at the edges of large rallies clashed with club-wielding riot police, or security forces dispatched martial arts experts and plainclothes officers to beat or arrest demonstrators. Students also occasionally beat up police informants or plainclothes officers. This pattern changed following the killings of students and other demonstrators in Kwangju in May 1980.

The Kwangju incident permanently stained the legitimacy of the Chun government for subsequent generations of student activists, many of whom also blamed the United States for what they believed to be its supportive role. The use of Molotov cocktails by some elements among student demonstrators, both as a counter to increasingly effective police use of tear gas and as a reflection of increased militancy, became a feature of student demonstrations during the 1980s.

In 1988, under the general guidance of the National Association of University Student Councils (Chondaehyop) or the Seoul Area Federation of Student Councils (Soch'ongnyon), small groups of students armed with Molotov cocktails, metal pipes, and occasionally tear gas grenades or improvised incendiary or explosive devices, staged more than two dozen raids on United States diplomatic and military facilities. Students also conducted a similar number of attacks against offices of the government and ruling party and the suburban Seoul residence of former President Chun.

Terrorist groups active in South Korea are mainly student activists such as:

While groups are still active, by the early 1990s, the violence backers fell into disfavor, with students opting to less martial means to attempt to change the government.
 
 
 


Peru ( map )
 

Peru (according to the U.S. Library of Congress Country Study) has a long history of trouble, with our analysis picking up the strings just after the end of World War I.  Through the political turmoil of two basic party schemes the country tried to find its way through the early years of the twentieth century.  The first was the Peruvian Socialist Party (Partido Socialista Peruano--PSP), shortly to become the Peruvian Communist Party (Partido Comunista Peruano--PCP), founded on basic Marxist principles attempting to overthrow the ologarthy of wealthy Peruvian landowners and empower the laborers.  Haya de la Torre returned to Peru from a long exile to organize the American Popular Revolutionary Alliance (Alianza Popular Revolucionaria Americana--APRA), an anti-imperialist, continent-wide, revolutionary alliance, founded in Mexico in 1924.  The goals was to bring about a revolution against the Civilista oligarchy. For that to happen, he argued, the working classes must be joined to radicalized sectors of the new middle classes in a cross-class, revolutionary alliance akin to populism

With the two political wings fighting each other, the country swung widely from one extreme to the other, from Marxist to Populist while remaining primarily socialist in nature.  As more commoners (non weatlth land owners -- from peasents to middle class) moved into higher military and political status, the oligarchy in Peru came under more and more pressure to reform and liberalize the country's inclination to do as the oligarchy wishes.  These officials began to believe that development of Peru's resources and entrance into world trade -- in other words emmergence as a third world country was the best way to stave off revolution.  The military seized the government, seized the large agrarian areas that provided wealth to the oligarchy and proceeded to rebuild Peru into a middle class opportunistic agrarian culture, essentially distributing land ownership to some 350,000 families.  They also seized control of foreign mining and manufacturing operations bringing their control and full benefits of their economics into Peru.

While these changes were paramount in Peru's emergence into world markets, it did not spell a lasting success for many of the programs initiated as Peru continues to this day to fine tune their constitution and economic recovery.  A series of privitaizations continued to move control of industry to Peruvian hands and by the mid 1980s, Peru had become a large player, while still fighting recovery from vast debts and a sharp depression.

Outlying areas from the more civilized regions saw infant mortality soar and infrastructures deterioated to the point that popular uprisings led to the emergence of a strong Marxist leader, Abimáel Guzmán Reynoso, a philosophy professor at the University of Huamanga.  Huamanga founded the Sendero Luminoso (SL) or Shining Path, a Marxist-Leninist-Maoist blended terrorist group that began with viscious and essentially uncontrolled attacks against the Government and officials.  In response to the threat, the Belaunde government closed their fist and began to choke the country even further, spelling their own doom.  Another force in favor of the SL was a growing demand for Coca, used in the production of Cocaine as one example only, and the discontent of growers who cared little about the crop's uses.

This illicit export, controlled by Colombians with the right connections into the U.S. and Europe, pushed the plant to become the highest level export until the government made its growing illegal in 1978.  With U.S. aid, there began a period of conflict between the U.S. aided government as it attempted to shut down the drug trade, and the drug lords and SL enciting the people to fight them.

Once again the ARPA took control at election time in 1985, with a marked move to the left again, the runner up party being the Izquierda Unida - IU or Marxist United Left.

Today Peru maintains a fragile peace between moderate left and extreme left leaning parties with the same essential problems in popularity of the SL and continued efforts to stem the drug trade.  Several recent kidnappings of Japanese government officials by terrorists and very publicized anti-terrorist assaults on the kidnappers have placed Peru's struggle forefront in the news.

The five major terrorist groups in the region are:


 
 


Colombia ( map )

Colombia is on our list because, like Peru, the country is faced with a seemingly uncontrollable drug trading economoy and forced cooperation with the  U.S. war on drugs -- which appears to be  mostly ineffective in stemming the production and flow of illicit drugs throughout the world -- products which remain in production and arriving in worldwide ports despite decades of attempts to stop the illicit flow.

The historical path that has led Colombia to where it is today is all too familiar in emerging nations.  A consitutional government that winds up using violence and martial law to hold down violence and popular dissent.  During the 1910s and 1920s, the Colombian economy became more integrated into the global financial and commercial markets. Renewed relations with the United States during the administration of Marco Fidel Suárez (1918-21) opened the door for foreign exchange and investment. The United States replaced Britain as Colombia's key financial and commercial partner. Most of the foreign exchange came from the coffee trade, which at this time represented nearly 80 percent of exports.

Public works, such as building communication networks, accelerated under the Conservative Pedro Nel Ospina administration (1922-26). Investment in industry came primarily from the private sector, including foreign interests. By 1929 private foreign investment totaled US$400 million, with some US$45 million having been invested by oil companies. The Nel Ospina administration also oversaw the reorganization of the banking and financial sectors, creating the Bank of the Republic (Banco de la República).

The growth in industry and construction, supported by both public and private funds, led to the emergence of a genuine working class that soon learned to unionize. In 1918 Colombia experienced its first major strikes. The union movement also came to be influenced by European syndicalism and socialism; in 1919 the first workers' conference, which was fostered by socialist ideas, was held. These activities were a backdrop to the launching of the Colombian Socialist Party. The leftists leadning democracy held the country together well through World War II.

By 1946 it fell apart, however, and an attempt by Mariano Ospina Pérez to hold things together with a coaltion government but in 1948, the unrest exploded when a popular leftist figure Gaitan was asssasinated.  This lead to a long and bloody undeclared civil war that lasted well into 1958.  Succesive swings between liberal and conservative governments with inevitable crackdowns as they lost control have made for huge swings in the public sentiment in Colombia.  Meanwhile a thriving drug trade has taken advantage of the inability of the country's government to police the traders.  This parallel economy continues to compete with the official economy, baffling attempts to stablize the countries exports and eroding the tax base.

In Colombia, government officials and the press both face execution by the cartels of drug lords whose fortunes feed greedy and corrupt officals and fund assassination of the honest ones.   Recent co-operative seizures by Colombian and U.S. anti-drug forces are promising, however these actions only seem to be temporary measures that drug lords ignore.  Drug traffickers also purchased legitimate businesses, such as banks, textile mills, and sports teams. The drug traffickers' control over a large portion of the illicit economy and a significant amount of the official economy undercut government efforts at national economic planning. In addition, government efforts to combat drug trafficking drained funds that could have been used more productively elsewhere.

Terrorist groups  active in Colombia are:

Sources

Sources used in the preparation of this report were:

The history outlined for the  nations in this report were adapted first from the Library of Congress Country Studies for the nations in question and validated or color added from various sources including the excellent news stories from the Associated Press .   Specifically we acknlowedge the writers who submitted articles for the A.P. Wire Flashpoint series and who are listed along with their articles, in the table below:
 


Region Author Title Date
Afghanistan Scott Neuman Historical Perspective: The 'Great Game' Becomes a Neighborhood Brawl 7/8/00
Cambodia Lisa Bass Historical Perspective: Cambodia's Ancient Beauty, Dark Past  7/17/00
India/Pakistan Scott Neuman Historical Perspective: South Asia's Nuclear Cold War 6/2/00
Northern Ireland non-attributed Historical Perspective: 'Troubles' in Northern Ireland  7/13/00
Iran Gabriel Madway Historical Perspective: Iran Torn Between Tradition and Modern World 8/23/00
Israel Jason Fields Historical Perspective: Who Has the Right To Call Israel Home? 6/4/00
The Former Soviet Union Jason Fields Historical Perspective: Russia and the Former Soviet Union 11/17/00  
Yugoslavia Jason Fields Historical Perspective: Yugoslavia, a Legacy of Ethnic Hatred 2/10/01

 
 
 

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