The following is a summary threats that North Korea presents to its neighbors and world peace. We begin with a restatement of our analysis in February 2002, The Axis of Evil - Why Those Three Countries?, as well as an update for December 2002.
February 2002
The North Korean nuclear weapons program, by 1994, was thought to have produced enough material for one to two weapons. Importation of necessary materials and manufacturing facilities (not only JUST dual use). While intervention by the U.S. at that time was thought to have made inroads into shelving their program, it appears today that U.S. attempts only managed to slow the work, and full scale production may be back on the top of the priority list. While actual weapons production does not seem to be in process, procurement of a wide variety of components IS in process, implying that North Korea may be planning to have all the components they need to assemble weapons. If non-proliferation watchers have missed the accumulation of suitable nuclear material, then the North Korean nuclear weapons program may be able to assemble weapons at a moments notice.
The North Korean biological warfare program is quite mature, offering anthrax, cholera, and plague agents ready for mounting in long range delivery systems. Non-proliferation experts believe North Korea's signing of the Biological Weapons Convention was a sham to induce the U.S. and others to limit their applying heavy pressure against further development.
The chemical program in North Korea is booming, being one of the hottest consumers of GNP in North Korea, this while the rest of the economy flounders and aid for starving North Koreans continues to pour into the country. U.S. Allied intelligence community assets indicate humanitarian aid may be resold and revenue funneled to the nuclear and chemical programs. There is very high confidence that North Korea has blood, nerve, blister, and choking agents in production and stored, waiting for the call to be mounted on delivery systems.
In terms of delivery systems, North Korea is once again testing long range delivery systems and worse, is already exporting to Iran and Iraq as well as other terrorist nations. The Tonpo-Dong 2 rocket system currently in development is thought to approach the 6000 mile range, making North Korea the epitome of the U.S. designation of "rogue nation" able to strike across the pole to U.S., Europe and Russia. Current systems already allow North Korea to attack China, Mongolia, Russia, Japan, and South Korea. The future systems will reach Alaska, Northern most Canada, Australia and all of Central, South and Southeast Asia as well as the U.S. Central Command's AOR of Turkey, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.
North Korean military personnel are trained and practiced in fighting in contaminated environment, with front line troops (border of North and South Korea) fully outfitted for fighting in chemical or biological conditions.
There is no indication that North Korea has resisted any orders from any country for any product they possess. Therefore, it is hardly a stretch to imagine that the existing chemical and biological agents in the hands of North Korea are already making their way to Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and others. Thus it is also not hard to believe that components for nuclear weapons or nuclear material production have already been sold to high bidders in the terrorist world.
While information available publicly does not conclusively prove movement of NBC components, delivery systems or complete systems, sources in the clandestine community indicate there is proof positive.
While North Korea does not appear to have enough funds to actually aid terrorist organizations, their sales of items on the "no-no" list is perhaps a worse indictment of the country's leadership and constitutes a clear and present danger to world peace, and the security of countries on global terrorist's lists of targets (U.S., U.K., most of Europe and Israel). The naive assumption that there is no fundamental religious connection to Iraq and Iran is dangerous -- North Korea will sell to anyone with the money in hand, or where they can trade for items they need in their own NBC programs. To say otherwise is refuting facts in history and publicly available.
December 2002
Up to 750 missiles are reported to be aimed at North Korea's nemesis, South Korea, with a large portion of these aimed directly at Seoul, the capital of South Korea which is near the demilitarized zone than stands between the two countries. In fact many of these missiles are near the Northern side of the zone, all capable of WMD attacks, particularly biological and chemical agents.
North Korea possesses nearly 4000 tanks for various Chinese and Russian make including the versatile and capable T-72. Older MIG aircraft populate the North Korean air force ( between 650 and 800 depending on a particular parts situation the day you count) are quite capable of overcoming the well trained and outfitted South Korean Air Force to deliver bombs on South Korean cities.
North Korea has one of the largest armies in the world with nearly 1 million in uniform and some 7 million in the reserves, however, it is unlikely that North Korea could actually mount an effective invasion since fuel and transport are its weakest link at present. However, an attack on a border city could leave Seoul wide open to attack by a large assault from North Korean forces. Supply would be a problem however, and it is not thought that the assault would last long. However, during the occupation, the North Koreans could do real damage to the South Korean capital, damage severe enough that the attack would severely impact the economic stability and viability of the South.
The North Korean Navy, while small and not exactly a force to fear, makes up for this by being extremely aggressive. Over the last 50 years, most in the region have felt the impact of its overt and illegal regulation of territorial waters beyond the International limit, including the infamous incident where the North Koreans captured a U.S. intelligence gathering ship (U.S.S. Preble) and held its crew for many months. More recent events include a North Korean ship found carrying weapons to communist elements in South Korea and Japan, and the resulting sinking of a North Korean vessel by the Japanese Self Defense Forces.
North Korean sales of nuclear technology to several countries has been confirmed as well as sales of their medium range ballistic missiles. In addition, North Korea has nearly 900 SCUD missiles in their arsenal as well as their own rockets, and it is well known that they have biological and chemical warheads for all their ballistic missiles. Their three-stage Taepo Dong-1 has the reach of over 1200 miles putting all its neighbors in jeopardy, especially South Korea and Japan. A recent test firing demonstrated that their third stage vehicle could deliver fragmented payloads (like an MIRV) over 3400 miles.
Recent events have alarmed non-proliferation professionals in the area of nuclear arms.
First the North Koreans sanguinely admitted that they have been consistently deceiving inspectors from the IAEA and have been continuing work on their nuclear weapons program including production of weapons grade material. Then they announced that they were ready to restart their plutonium production facilities calling them electricity generations operations -- the particular reactors being extremely poor (if at all possible) generator plants (it is not clear that there are even electricity generators anywhere near let alone in the plants in question). Then North Korea expelled the IAEA inspectors on the logical premise that since they were resuming their nuclear weapons program, they no longer wanted anyone looking in on their classified research projects.
North Korea's 200-megawatt plant and a 50-megawatt plant -- were frozen in the early stages of construction in 1994 when they agreed to halt their construction in a agreement that we now know they did not honor -- instead continuing their nuclear research in secret. According to the IAEA it will take some time to restart these plants, but once online would produce weapons grade material in a matter of six months or less. The plants are ideal for reprocessing spent fuel rods used in electrical generation plants and facilities for this operation were in construction in 1994.
North Korea, according to U.S. intelligence assets, is also well along in a Uranium enrichment program, one that will produce weapons grade material in mid 2003. Unfortunately, public knowledge of the location of these facilities is not known.
According to sources that wish to remain anonymous, North Korea's current posturing is not only due to a misguided strategy to bring world powers to the negotiating table -- a strategy intended to reap economic benefits in trade for ceasing nuclear operations like occurred in 1994 -- but a real desire to build more of an effective deterrent to U.S. aided attack from Japan or South Korea. It is also clear from intelligence that the current North Korean regime is nearing the end of its run -- starvation and dissension is growing together at a rate that must be exceedingly worrisome to the regime.
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© Copyright, 2002, Michael Crawford, MILNET