MILNET Opinion
Iran's Nuclear Goals Seem Clear, June 2004


While North Korea rattles the nuclear saber overtly and some relish, Iran's nuclear program is hidden under a more classic Middle Eastern facade of peaceful intentions.  Yet, like North Korea, their friends in Russia seem to be helping them build a second nuclear reactor, as if this energy rich country needs yet another nuclear power plant.

And of course, when questioned by various leaders and debating societies like the U.N., the answer is always first, "What reactor", then, "Well we might have a new reactor being built", and then "This reactor is only for peaceful research".  Right.

So after only a few years, the intentions of Iraq seem as clear as those of North Korea, and just recently revealed, as clear as those Libya intended for its own program.  To produce the fissile material needed, while at the same time negotiating on the black market for a jump start of nuclear material.  The possible sources for that material?  The usual suspects:  Russia, Pakistan, or North Korea. 

With  the recent revealation that North Korea was the source for nuclear material for Libya's program, this may mean the jumpstart scenario is not such a long reach after all.  And of course technology in the way of knowledge and dual use equipment is already well established with those same three sources already having proven to be nefarious.

Harkening back to the Axis of Evil speech, is it any wonder the U.S. President wished to link North Korea and Iran into the Axis? 

Now, as we are preparing to turn over sovereignty of Iraq to its provisional government, perhaps it will be time to address the problem with something more than debate and gentle diplomacy.

As in the case with North Korea, our leaders have taken the time to explore the diplomatic routes. Colin Powell has stated something to the effect that "we have other routes to pursue...".  Clearly, with Iran continuing to develop their own program with some impunity and denying the IAEA access, continuing construction on nuclear facilties, and most likely making slow, steady
and unimpeded progress in their own program, we will shortly see a nuclear test from them. 

Won't that be nice?  A pair of competing nuclear tests as we see the a test from North Korea and Iran.  Perhaps they can plan things so they happen in the same year?  What fun!

Of course, we can always continue to use mouth instead of fist. That seems to work OH so well!
 
MILNET Briefing: Chronology for the Iranian Nuclear Program

-  Copyright ©, 2004, Michael G. Crawford

Secretary Armitage Interview Transcript, On North Korea, June 29, 2004.