MILNET Opinion - The Jerusalem Pact

MILNET Opinion
The Jerusalem Pact, 01/30/07
Updates

"In Beirut's southern suburbs, a Hezbollah stronghold, a banner hangs near a bridge wrecked by Israeli strikes last summer: "The Zionist enemy destroys, the Islamic Republic of Iran builds." ¹

"If you say hello to me, you probably like me. If you say hello to me and ask what I need, you're a friend. If you say hello to me, ask what I need and put money in my hand, then you're going to be my brother."

- Hajj Hassan Sbeiti, merchant, southern Beirut, Lebanon ¹

Money speaks loudly in the Arab World. Hezbollah likes to spread cash around in Lebanon as a way to demonstrate how they "really care" about the people in that troubled nation. The Arab League takes donations and some winds up in the hands of Hamas or perhaps even gets funneled to Al-Qaeda.

However, the real money is flowing not to terrorists, but into the pockets of businessman who have already created a trading partnership that flies in the face of the Islamic Jihadist's intent. So why not exploit this bigger economic picture to end the violence? Where is this business partnership flourishing? Certainly not in Lebanon, Iraq, or the Palestinian Territories. However, it could easily be found there if the draw was compelling enough.

The Trade Partners

Today, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and surprising to some, Israel, have been conducting trade at a feverish pace. Israel is the high tech king in the Middle East and also enjoys favored port status for many manufacturers in and out of the Middle East.

This allows Israel to become an avid trading partner with its neighbors. Why is this important? It's economics, pure and simple. If it will cost Egypt billions in trade revenues and also cut off a much needed source of high tech imports, thus there is significant impetus to restrain anti-Semitic violence originating from Egypt. And since the last conflict with Israel which occurred decades ago, the three Arab partners have steadfastly refused to find excuses to even rattle a sword in Israel's direction. Perhaps money does speak louder than religious fervor in this case.

How About A Pact?

The idea is simple. Formalize this trading relationship, add a nice discount, and see if the rest of the Arab World, who admittedly like money just like the rest of us, might find it more useful to be Israel's trading partner than allow the killing to continue. For a few days at least, the Palestinians even appeared to respond to money. When Mahmoud Abbas finally received several hundred million dollars of Palestinian cash locked up by the Israelis, the in-fighting between Hamas and Fatah stopped. For a few days. Some say that when that money did not flow to the streets, the violence resumed immediately.

Perhaps if there were dual financial incentives to eliminate the violence there would be less violence and indeed an urgency to putting together a Palestinian State! Development aid and increased trade dollars may be the two levers that are far more effective than guns and IEDs.

Especially if a billion or two in cash would begin flowing in economic development aid. If a few hundred million dollars prompted nearly two weeks of calm, what would a few billion a month do? Is there a dollar amount that will incite peace? This is the larger question...no one wants to throw big cash at the problem if there is little or no probability that it will help.

An organized trade alliance with substantial discounts will increase the flow of cash and provide huge incentives to even the folks in the street. One reason Hezbollah does so well in Lebanon is that they entice Israel to come after them, then, when the world screams at Israel for responding, forcing them to retreat, Hezbollah comes back in with monies to rebuild. No one, especially those being most effected the merchants and workers in Lebanon, seems to remember that it was Hezbollah that created the problem in the first place. What appears to mask over this diabolical methodology is money. Personal money, and up close, as the second quote above indicates. Offer a man money to rebuild and that is what he remembers, not the fact that Hezbollah kidnapped two Israeli soldiers and that resulted in Israel's attacks.

However, building up trade with Israel creates a whole new dynamic in the region. Eventually, perhaps, it becomes economically impossible to continue to strike out at the Israelis...national economies could very well be so attached that they sink right along with the Israelis. That would be an ideal conclusion to the Middle East conflict. Even irrational Iran may find that its moderate's desire for things western is better served by joining the Jerusalem Pact and becoming trading partners rather than developing, testing and producing nuclear weapons. Perhaps both Iran and Syria, left out of the burgeoning economies of the Pact members, will see that their radicalism is only allowing other Arab nations to grow at a pace that will soon leave them as paupers in comparison.

Many analysts believe that this is a powerful weapon against the Arab mind...it is as strong as any other machismo in action in the Middle East. No one wants to be a pauper, and even amongst the Jihadists, wealth has plenty of meaning. Of course nothing will stop the truly dedicated Shiite from killing the Sunni and vice-versa. That is a centuries old problem and nothing we can do or say will stop that. However nations will fight that sectarian violence if they have the right incentives. Loss of billions in revenue from the pact will be that incentive.

New Members

Perhaps the pact would allow new members...for instance, all four countries do a good deal of trade with the European Union and the United States. Canada might also wish to join.

This would increase the overall market share of the pact and increase the overall discount derived profit.

Rules of Such a Pact

The Jerusalem Pact would require rules for behavior, just like any other trade agreement, and provide incentives for following those rules. For instance, an member state who is found to support terrorism loses membership benefits. Repeated offenses remove membership permanently. Member nations must certify their efforts to eliminate virulent Jihadist teachings in Madrasses and stop funding Madrasses who preach Jihadism outside their own nations. The membership must enforce extradition of terrorists captured in their countries and certify efforts to find and detain named terrorists and their organizations.

For instance, at points in time, the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and Saudi Arabia have produced the world's worst terrorists, including Al-Qaeda's Osama Bin Laden and his co-leader, Ahmen Al-Zawahiri. Monitoring of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan must be a focus of those governments and the organization either temporarily shut down or banished all together if its members and leaders stray into the violent realm as Bin Laden did.
Simply declaring a person a terrorist and expelling them from a country is not enough. There needs to be prison sentences associated with that expulsion, long sentences. And if murder is involved, capital punishment should be an option.

Problems Already

Unfortunately, the conditions for membership in the Pact are problematic. For instance, the European Union and Canada would not participate if capital punishment is involved. The French and Italians, for instance, will not extradite to a country that allows capital punishment. Lately, they have refused to extradite based on length of sentences...deciding they know better how to punish terrorists with a slap on the wrist and returning terrorists to the streets in a few years to repeatedly create havoc.

Membership Has Its Rewards

The EU and Canada might very well refuse to join the pact if the rules are draconian enough. Which is fine...since a five country pact, with the largest economic power included, would mean tremendous cash flow into the coffers of the businesses in the five nations. Certainly the U.S. would benefit from such a pact. Remember the supply and demand equation...discounts could easily men trade will increase for all five nations, and also solidify the value of pact membership. If the EU and Canada don't join because of strict rules on treatment of terrorists, then they don't get to participate in the economic windfall. This may in fact provide incentive for the EU and Canada to change their policies on treatment of terrorists.

By making the membership in the pact a true economic stimulant, other nations will want to join. Some will do anything to join. Lebanon and Iraq, for instance, need all the economic development help they can get. A tentative and temporary membership in the pact, would entice those governments to continue forcefully down the path to democracy and more important, towards a bright economic future that has no room for violence of any kind.

The new Palestinian State might possibly occur sooner with the incentive to become a tentative member. And as I said before, perhaps the moderates in Iran might decide that their Jihadist masters have exceeded their usefulness and begin to modify that nation's behavior.

A Bright Future

I can see a point in the future where Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan are all heavily invested in trade with Israel. Their national economies dependent upon Israeli good will and continued trade, none of those nations would even consider an attack against Israel. In fact, a new clause to the Pact would be signed by all seven countries...the Jerusalem Pact Mutual Protection agreement. This agreement would require all seven nations to respond to the attack against any other. The idea of an Arab nation protecting Israel or Israel protecting an Arab nation might seem unrealistic. But when billions of dollars in economy are at stake, I believe ancient rivalries will cease to play an important part in the region's attitudes. Indeed, the pact could rid the Middle East of the level of violence we have witnessed in the 30 years.

Updates:

February 6, 2007: In a New York Times article, Michael Slackman and Hassan M. Fattah echoed the alliance
as well as the economic aspects of our fictional Jerusalem Pact. The article points out the Saudi emergence to counter what is perceived as a growing Shiite influence in the Middle East by Iran. It also reports a U.S. initiative to support Sunni-led nations working together for peace in the region--nations such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and even Lebanon, which could be joined by a Fatah led Palestinian state. In the list is also Israel, which a few decades would have been laughable, but today, is central to the sitiuation, especially with Lebanon continuing to host Hezbollah.

Sources:

With Iran ascendant, U.S. is seen at fault, A.P., MSNBC, 01/30/07
Israel Wars & Maps, United Jeruselum.com, undated
In Public View, Saudis Counter Iran, Michael Slackman and Hassan M. Fattah, New York Times, 02/06/07