MILNET Opinion
  Naive Monitoring of Iran's Fantasy World, 12/28/06

The International Atomic Energy Agency "has not seen any diversion of nuclear material to nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices..."but the agency was not "...in a position to conclude that there are no undeclared nuclear materials or activities in Iran,"

 - IAEA Director General Mohamed El Baradei , Report from the IAEA to the U.N., 2005 1

“The government is obliged to revise its level of cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency...Our path in nuclear technology is clear. We are a member of the International Atomic Energy Agency and have accepted the NPT and if anyone wants to deny the rights of others, he himself faces problems."

- Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary,  Ali Larijani, December 2006 7, 8


Naivite' at the IAEA - Double Talk, Can't Determine Facts, Afraid to Cite Indicators

While the Europeans, Russia and the IAEA dither about whether Iran is pursuing a nuclear program and taking useless steps with toothless sanctions, Iran continues to move ahead.  But the danger isn't just the weapon itself.

"New evidence indicates that Iran is also sponsoring radical terrorist groups rather than just the Shiite militia. The Guardian recently interviewed a terrorist, going by the name “Abdullah”, who described how he worked for Abdullah Shafi, a Kurdish terrorist from northern Iraq. “Abdullah” claimed Shafi led Ansar al-Islam and was expelled from Iran after the US invaded Iraq because he was mobilizing suicide bombers. “Abdullah” explained that he was trained in a camp on Iranian territory and given safe haven, money, weapons and a place to stay. Abdullah claimed that 19 of his 20 campmates were sent to fight in Iraq, but he was sent to Afghanistan to fight alongside the Taliban and was captured in Afghanistan."

- Ryan Mauro, Terror Threats in October and November, 2006, The Global Politician, 12/12/2006

So why, if Ryan's analysis is correct (and we do not doubt it one bit), does the IAEA and the rest of the world continue to sit on their hands "seized" with the problem rather than take action?  It arises from lack of courage in face of immenient danger.  Bureaucrats must have exacting, irrefutable data before they take action.  It has been said many times before...you cannot wait for that evidence, because once you have it, it is too late.

So then you must rely upon watchdogs to sound the alert.  In this case, it is the IAEA, an unfortunate choice for the job.  The IAEA is soft, diplomatic and led by indecisive, weak willed conformists who cannot seem to confront those nations who are clearly lying to them.

You know there's a problem when the head of the IAEA is incredulous when a rogue nation is found to have hidden nuclear secrets from the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog and inspection/monitoring agency.  This was Baradei's reaction to learning that Korea was developing a nuclear weapon and again in 2003 when Iran declared they were pursuing a highly enriched uranium program, the first step in creating a nuclear weapon.  How stupid can one agency get?  Or one man?

Doesn't Baradei pay attention to his own organization's history?  Doesn't the organization that supervises him have a clue?  The answer to both questions is no.  So why would the leaders of the IAEA find it hard to believe that Iran has been misleading them?

The IAEA has missed the predictions on nearly every (better than a 1/10 success rate) nuclear program it has monitored, and only admits there is a weapons program when the rest of the world is told a test is forthcoming.  The error quickly forgetten, they then expected to be funded year after year as they waste the world's money on ineffective, cooperative monitoring by rational nations.  Who needs monitoring of rational nations?  We need to go after the rogues!

It is a clear case of wishful thinking and ignorance (read that as wishing/hoping to rewrite history).  When you are a devout pacifist, it is extremely difficult to live in a world that is so violent.  The result is a need to isolate one's self from that world and live in your own fantasy.  Thye humanitarian organization that is the U.N. has spawned a compassionate IAEA, which is afraid to confront the facts of the world, and cannot manage to make one educated guess correct in 9 tries.

So here is the situation.  We have a national leader (President of Iran Mahmoud Ahmadinejad) living in a fantasy world about Iran's place in the world, his nuclear program,  and the leadership of the world by Islamic Extremists, being monitored by IAEA leaders who also live in a fantasy world where nations ALWAYS tell the truth about their nuclear programs.  What is wrong with that picture, folks?

It is high time that the U.N., whose track record at anything is abysmal anyway, fire the entire leadership team of the IAEA and get some really doubtful, hard to convince, in-your-face inspectors who can go after the world's cretins who are arming themselves with nuclear weapons.  The U.N. should also find the means to enlist the aid of intelligence agencies to get closer to the reality of the seemy world of black market nuclear materials and delivery vehicles for weapons of mass destruction. 

Enough of the U.N.'s atomic energy agency being a cooperative, glad handed liberal soft sell.  The agency needs to be recast as intrusive, deliberate and begin to err on the side of prevention, not public admission.  There are more facts available on the Internet on nuclear programs of the world than in the IAEA files, and that has to be changed overnight.

That change would be worth funding, while the current setup is worthless, nearly as much as the parent agency, the United Nations.



Sources:
  1. Iran Hid Nuclear Plans for 2 decades, Fox News, 4/12/2005
  2. Nuclear Debate Heats Up, Jamie Freed, Syndy Morning Herald, 1/14/06
  3. IAEA Report Says Iran Has Bomb Plans, A.P., Fox News, 1/31/06
  4. IAEA: Iran Advancing Uranium Enrichment, Molly Moore and Dafna Linzer, Washington Post, 2/28/2006
  5. Russia:  Iran Must Cooperate with the IAEA, Fox News, 4/21/06
  6. Terror Threats in October and November of 2006, Ryan Mauro, The Global Politician, 12/12/2006 (mirror)
  7. Larjani:  Special Committee Founded to Study Iran-IAEA ties, China View, 12/28/2006
  8. New committee to study level of cooperation with IAEA, MEHR NEWS (English, Iranian News Agency), 12/27/2006


© Copyright 2006, Michael G. Crawford