MILNET Opinion
 Classic Russian Pattern, 12/30/2004
"The unsolved problems will exacerbate," said Illarionov, a liberal Putin adviser who has become increasingly critical of his patron. "In the absence of normal, legal ways of solving such problems, there is nothing left but revolution."
- Andrei Illarionov, Economic Advisor to Vladimir Putin, on Ekho Moskvy radio, 12/30/2004 1

"...It called Russia's retreat from freedom, entering the ranks of the unfree for the first time since the 19120 breakup of the Soviet Union, "the year's most important political trend."

- Kyiv Post editorial on Freedom House statements on Russia's decline from freedom, 12/30/2004 3

In less than a decade, Vladimir Putin has finalized the consolidation of his power in Russia and in a sad parody of many of his predecessors  -- strong men in Russian leadership --  has begun to become the dictator all too familiar in the Moscow environs.

It is sad not just because anyone over 30 years will recognize the stereotype, but also because it also spells huge problems on the horizon for the rest of the world.  It is also tragic because of the attempt toward democracy sponsored by reformers and supported by Glasnost and perhaps despite of the bumbler Yeltsin.

At the head of the forces pushing Russia back towards its dark days is the loose collection of thieves and villains we all will recognize under the pejorative, "The Russian Mafia".  Of course, few can point to more than a few villainous thugs working together, and certainly it is rare for that breed to share or organize without mass killings within a few days, there is the notion at least that criminals are doing quite well in Russia.  And while no connection between Putin and the thugs can be proved, there is an errie silence from the Russian Government on the subject.

In another area that speaks volumes about where Russia is headed, it appears that old habits die hard.  When a tight Ukrainian election threatened to place a less favorable candidate -- a candidate with known anti-Putin regime bias -- into office, the Russian meddling began.  Some even believe the less favorable candidate to Putin was mysteriously poisoned.  When the Ukrainian legal system challenged the election results, along comes waves of Russian pressure to leave their fair haired candidate alone and to send the poisoned pro-west candidate packing.  Again the echoes of Soviet era political machinations are electrifying.

What is different about Russia today, of course, is that the madmen are not hiding behind an iron curtain.  We have some visibility as to what is going on. 

Their answer to terrorists taking hundreds hostage?  Flood the place with a nerve gas and kill hostages and victims right along with the terrorists.  Where do the terrorists come from? A satellite nation hoping to break away from Putin's influence and with many decades of gripes against the treatment at the hands of former Soviet strongmen.  Not simply insults, mind you, but purges similar to those nearing genocide by former Soviet leader Joseph Stalin.  In fact, if memory serves, it was Killer Joe that created the particular problem in Chechnya. 

Another unusual facet of today's Russia is that we actually get to see a little of the internal conflict that Mr. Putin is facing.  One of his own advisors is speaking out on Russian Radio and sparking a little good old fashioned Russian indignation.  In fact, he has issued a warning of sorts.  According to the Associated Press 1 Andrei Illarionov "...warned that the Kremlin's efforts to muzzle voices of dissent and civil society would eventually trigger protests similar to those which swept Ukraine during its fiercely contested presidential vote."

That kind of open dissent wouldn't have been tolerated in the old Russia, in fact, we'd never have heard of the dissenter beyond his sudden and mysterious death.  Of course, time remains for Putin to take that kind of measure in hand.

And least one of our readers not understand why any of this is a big deal, we remind them of the fact that since 19120, it has been the hope of the world that Russia's new found freedom would spell and end to that divisive force that Russia was prior to the breakup of the Soviet Union.  However, in the little over a decade, Russia, under Putin's iron fisted leadership, has once again become the foil of the west on the world stage.

Putin is no fool, however, and he has carefully wooed European socialist minded nations, clearly understanding the angst of those nation's leaders better than any U.S. President has.  When the U.S. went ahead with plans to build a national defense based upon ballistic missiles that could prevent a rogue nation from lobbing a nuclear, biological, or chemical weapon into the U.S. mainland, Putin immediately toured Europe to talk about how Russia would gladly take money from the Euros to help him build a similar defense for all of Europe and Russia combined.  Now of course, the thought of Russia protecting Europe seems a little more sinister -- almost harkening back to tanks rolling through the streets of Yugoslavia or Poland.

When Europeans whined about U.S. led efforts to curb Saddam Hussein's efforts to escape sanctions after Gulf War I, Putin was quick to stand shoulder to shoulder with his European neighbors.  Of course, now that his neighbors and he have been exposed in the oil-for-food scam, the worst debacle for the U.N. since its inception, many Europeans are beginning to question not only Putin's friendship, but their own leaders culpability -- or at least their naiveté. 

MILNET believes this was quite predictable, in fact, has warned since Putin took office that the former spy master was a wolf in sheep's clothing.  Further, worse is yet to come. 

In a holiday conversation with an imminent scientist and chemical engineering professor, we laughed about how intelligence officials and fiction writers alike labeled Bulgaria as "spy central".  While those days in the cold war seem to have vanished, there is a chilling atmosphere once again as we look toward Russia.  China too while making interesting noises, does not seem to have truly moved away from their pre Soviet Union breakup behavior.  It wasn't all that long ago that a Chinese fighter decided to make a dangerous and threatening flyby at a U.S. spy plane, forcing it to land on a Chinese controlled island.  The intelligence coup aside, this was certainly the act of a belligerent nation, an act that was totally reminiscent of cold war machinations.

Again, MILNET was not surprised by that action and is not surprised that intelligence analysts are pretty convinced that the sudden interest in the world's supplies of concrete and steel by China are not just purchases for Olympic venues in the near future.  With the amounts on order, it is clear China is building quite a bit more than some arenas for sporting events.

In any case, the next few years will undoubtedly cast world opinion in concrete.  With Putin's strong hand tactics indicating he has taken off the gloves, we can only look to see more steel than velvet.  In fact, 2005 may be the watershed year.  We may see Russia and China both revealing their hands.  Centuries of diabolical and intricate planning may have come to a head.  After all, both countries have leaderships that are not stupid.  They understand the concepts of false flagging.  Appear to be conciliatory, act like a sweet little sheep.  And when you have wandered amidst the juicy little lambs, when you have a clear shot at creating the most havoc while having the best meal of your life, then it will be time to shed your false hide and revert to your true self.

Is a new cold war just around the corner?  Some analysts fear it, MILNET hopes they are all wrong.  It may be a hope already dying.


Additional Reading:
  1. Putin Advisor:  Freedoms Crackdowns will Destroy Russia, Associate Press, Fox News Online, 12/30/2004
  2. Russia & Ukraine's 2004 Election, Global Security.COM, 2004 compilation, undated
  3. Freedom House:  Russia Has Declined to "Not Free" status, Kyiv Post, 12/30/2004
  4. The Bear is Out of Hibernation, Alan Simpson's Political Intelligence, 9/14/2004
  5. Beware the Dragon Awakes, Alan Simpson's Political Intelligence, 8/4/2004
  6. Soaring Steel Prices - Concrete Construction, Hanley, Inc., April 2004
  7. China Syndrom in Reverse, Aisa Times, 5/6/2004
  8. How to Overcome Rising Steel Prices, Fabtrol MRP White Paper, CSC News Product News, undated


© Copyright 2004, Michael Crawford for MILNET