MILNET: Opinion - Iran Goes Irrational

MILNET Opinion
Iran Joins the Cast of Irrational, July 2004

"We seriously suspect the agents of the Americans and Israelis in conducting such horrendous terrorist acts and cannot believe the people who kidnap Philippines nationals, for instance, or behead U.S. nationals are Muslims."

- Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, July 13, 2004. ¹

In what can only be described as bizarre, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the top religious leader of the government in Iraq says he believes the U.S. and Israel are conducting kidnappings and beheadings in Iraq. Joining the irrational leaders of North Korea who accuse the U.S. of making up the facts surrounding the nuclear crisis in that country in order to take North Korea to war, the Iranian religious leader seems to gone off the deep edge.

While stating terrorism as being "loathsome and horrible" the leader then claims muslims could not be the perpetrators. The remarks were during a visit to Singapore, and followed a kidnapping of a Philippine national in Iraq.

The statement, reminiscent of North Korea's twisting of the truth, indicates that the religious leader is in denial himself or perhaps fallen subject to his own propaganda machine. It is not the first time Iranian leaders have distorted the truth. Despite growing evidence from the IAEA citing traces of weapons grade material in the Iranian nuclear site under monitoring, the Iranian government continues to deny the existence of a weapons program (See the MILNET Briefing: Iranian Progress Toward Developing Nuclear Weapons, July 2004).

Nuclear non-proliferation experts worldwide have warned that it is only a short amount of time before the Iranian government finally admits not only to a program, but prepares and then executes a nuclear test, becoming the second nuclear nation in the mideast. The first of course is Israel, and that is the threat all Arab nations use as their justification for joining the nuclear club.

And while this latest distortion of the truth is in-of-itself disturbing, what is more alarming is the position of power this person holds in the Iranian government. In fact, such declarations speak ill of the government's ability to proceed rationally, making the existence of a nuclear program even more frightening. Combining religious zealousness and irrationality, and a patent disregard for reality, reeks of the smell of madmen in Iran, and that frightens both non-proliferation experts as well as military analysts and planners.

The statements also mark a change in Iranian posture. For several years the government has attempted to "low ball" the secular wing of their government, while moderates attempt to convince the West they are still amongst the civilized, rational nations in the region. However, the fact that a prominent religious leader is willing to make such statements indicates the moderates truly have little sway in the government and when the nuclear program bears fruition, the danger is not just emanating from a muslim nation looking nervously at Israel, but progressing from a nation whose leadership may have lost all sense of reality. A madman at the controls of nuclear weapons cannot be an improvement on the situation in the Middle East.

MILNET believes if this kind of rhetoric continues, Western nations will have no choice but to determine a clear and present danger from Iran. The next steps will be secret planning to eliminate the threat through military means while stepping up the political pressure and dialog. The U.S., already having made it clear Iran is one of the three most dangerous rogue nations on the planet, certainly needs no more of an excuse than a "madman at the switch". The U.S. has taken the nation to war on less an inspiration.

The only question is the U.S. capability to add more to their plate militarily. Since no major draw down of troops in Iraq, clearly the U.S. could not fight a conflict with Iran. Not for the first time in recent history, the U.S. is faced with limited forces and lots of business to conduct. Over a decade of post cold war reductions in the forces have left the military unable to throw down the military card.

Perhaps this is intentional on the part of Congress, however such a strategy is clearly going to place the world in danger. When the world's preeminent and only super power cannot hope to enforce diplomacy with the "or else", it is clear the rogue nations are winning the political fray.

So while the U.S. and Europe eye Iran nervously, Russia and China in a half century old pattern, continue to arm those who oppose the West and continue a new kind of cold war, the quiet war. While making the proper conciliatory gestures in public, and even sporting a "nearly democratic" national status, Russian continues to help Iran build their nuclear program. And while sitting at the negotiating table with proper public faces, the Chinese are helping the North Koreans build theirs.

While Iraq clearly needing fixing, many analysts look at North Korea and Iran with much trepidation. Perhaps the U.S. should have focused in those two nations first? In fact, since North Korea is pretty much contained by their neighbors, isn't the real danger to the world parked squarely in the middle east staring with malicious intent at Israel?

One has to wonder if the lines between Israeli and U.S. diplomats, Intelligence, and Military leaders aren't buzzing. One also has to wonder if Israel isn't telling the U.S. there is a deadline on the diplomacy, which when reached, will trigger the standard Israeli response to a clear and present danger. Certainly we wouldn't want to be anywhere near nuclear facilities in Iran, and painting a bulls eye on them by mouthing off about how the U.S. and Israel are the "beheaders" is certainly not helping the situation at all.

Even more frightening are the reports we are getting from our sources. The so called "Muslims in the streets" are cheering the comments and nodding along as though it is all believable. It's hard for Westerners to understand the ready acceptance of such a twist, but then it is not the first time we might have been surprised. Clearly terrorists in the Middle East are their freedom fighters -- of course how it is they are fighting for freedom in every nation but Iran, Syria, Lebanon, defies logic, but then again, what has logic have to do with it.

What the West needs to understand is that the so called "Muslim Street" is nothing more than the sheep being led in mob hysteria. How can mob hysteria last so long? The answer while hard to believe, is never-the-less true. Unhappy people are willing to believe anything if they are being told that that version of the truth will lead them to a change in their own personal affairs -- a change for the better.

In the end, Iran will continue to prove it is not the so called emerging civilization they claim to be, and the moderates will be swept away when the religious leaders finally have the very weapons they vow are tools of satan. With the nuclear card to play, look for Iran to become the most powerful Arab Nation, and for the Kingdom of Saud to crumble very soon thereafter as their own "street" realizes that the family running Saudi Arabia is now powerless and helpless against both the political and religious sects in Iran.

Unfortunately, it also appears that the U.S., having stretched its military too thin, may only have one exercise available militarily, and that a risky one at best -- bringing in the stealth bombers. With some three or more sites to focus on, and with those sites spread all over the country, not just very effective military planning would be required, but luck and intestinal fortitude are necessary. Of late, those attribute seem to be waning.

¹ Iran: U.S., Israel Behind Iraq Beheadings, Associated Press, July 13, 2004, as reported on Fox News Online.