MILNET Opinion -

MILNET Opinion
Taking a Breath, 11/26/2004

Everyone seems to have taken a deep breath after the U.S. election, and while some here at home have also appeared to take a short vacation from the daily fray, nothing could be further from the truth in the rest of the world.

Take for example Iran and the Europeans. In what only can be seen as remarkably naive diplomacy, the Iranians have promised to cease manufacturing of weapons grade material to negotiators from the European Union and the U.N. chief nuclear weapons representative. And as the happy diplomats raise their hands in cheer, the rational amongst us simply shake our heads.

What good are empty promises without verifiable results? The problem with the program negotiated is that it is unverifiable. Iran is not an open state and certainly U.N. officials don't have a clue as to where secret labs in Iran are located. To believe that they will be shown ALL nuclear facilities in this oppressed and proven malicious state is the height of wishful thinking.

Oh sure, they will be led around and shown a small number of centrifuges and perhaps a token amount of material in facilities already on the map.

In a few years, the diplomats will all gasp in awe as Iran's clandestine program comes to fruition. Indeed that could happen a few months from now, the Terrorist Bomb exploding in the Iranian desert with a bang heard all round the world.

Meanwhile North Korea simmers ready to boil over, and the elections in the Ukraine threaten to explode into civil war. Syria makes noises like they will comply with U.N. requirements for them to pull out, yet nothing is happening -- Lebanon is still a wholly owned subsidiary of the Baathists in Syria, the number two terrorist state in the world.

And while U.S. soldiers continue their job of cleaning out terrorists in Iraq, the major media ignores torture houses and and weapons finds that are large enough to invade any Mid-eastern nation. The more liberal outfits are reeling from their inability to sway an election in their favor and now here in America, the electorate wonders why once again a single state appeared to be the deciding factor. Many wonder, why Ohio determined the President in 2004 and Florida in 2000. Which state will make it happen in 2008? God let's not hope its not Chicago, Detroit or New York!

In the end time marchs one and as we start to close out 2004, our feeling of certitude diminishes a little further. The pundits decry hawkish behavior yet the world appears to demand it, and every sign of weakness clearly brings out the worst in the rest of the world.

Some of the greatest diplomats in our history have said it time and time again. Diplomacy only works when their is an honest effort to negotiate. Malicious lies can appear to be eager negotiation, yet in the end, they remain lies. You must judge the success of diplomacy, first by factoring in those sitting at the table and then, later, by how both parties perform under the terms of those negotiations. North Korea signed an accord and a decade later it was revealed they had purposely lied. Iran is smiling at the Europeans and the U.N. smiles right along with them. What will the next ten years hold for us? More of the same, we fear. The lie will be revealed and a government not capable of honesty in Iran will have proven themselves to be more than false, but dangerous. And the time for action will have passed.

Let's compare Libya's recent change of heart to the Iranian situation. Will Libya's promises be kept? We don't know for certain, but there are excellent indicators. They are taking actual steps. Iran on the other hand is making promise after promise, and it is only a matter of time before a radical cleric will speak up and denounce the more moderate elements diplomacy as lies. In the meantime, the clandestine programs have not slowed down, indeed they are most likely to be ramping up and approaching completion. Only the naive believe the opposite.