MILNET Opinion -

MILNET Opinion
The Terrorist Bomb, September 21, 2004

"Some of the amount of the 37 tonnes has been used. The tests have been successful but these tests have to be continued using the rest of the material..."

- Gholamreza Aghazadeh, head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, September 21, 2004

With the United Nations doing it's usual job of helping their deception, Iran has brazenly declared to the world their ultimate machismo. It is clear the next sound we will hear from them is "Boom". Big bada boom. And we aren't talking about the Sopranos either.

All non-proliferation analysts agree. Building the physical nuclear device is actually quite trivial with only a minimal industrial capacity required. In fact, a high school machine shop could manufacture the physical means. Next you need the so called "nuclear triggers", high speed and highly accurate switching devices that set off the charges in a spherical designed weapon, or in the most simple of designs, a rather routine shaped charge to blow a rod terminated by weapons grade material into a sphere of similar material which as the "pit" carved out..

Given that a nuclear weapon "shell" can be constructed, and Iran's clear intent to build their own Islamic bomb, it is hard NOT to believe that they have one or more test weapons already constructed and waiting for the final step, the addition of nuclear material. As we said, the machining of the appropriate amount of weapons grade material -- the inner core of the spherical weapon or the rod end and excised sphere do not take a scientist, just a machinist. In other words, all Iran needs to conduct a nuclear test is weapons grade nuclear material. 48 hours later, they are ready to stick it in a hole and set it off. Nothing anyone can do now to stop it.

Incredibly, Iran is boasting about how they are creating the very material that keeps every other tiny nation from becoming a part of the nuclear club. Are there any other uses for weapons grade material? Actually no. You have to dumb down weapons grade material, a sort of de-enrichment process, in order to produce nuclear fuel. Thus, the only peaceful uses for processing 37 tons of raw uranium using a highly enrichment centrifuge system is to say that you can do it. Or the more likely scenario, given that everyone knows Israel has nuclear weapons, is that Iran is ready to conduct their first test. A peaceful test of course, just like India and Pakistan.

Oh you will the the odd diplomat say, "they're just fishing to get some sort of payment out of the non-proliferation crowd. Payment not to build the bomb." But that is just another form of deception. Offer them all kinds of aid, and guess what, they'll take your money and still complete their program. How do we know this? We have seen the pattern, not once, but twice.

In fact, the Iranian press release that boasts of their new goal also says the Iranian nuclear nuts have already done the testing bit. Their "test" of the process was successful. So why would they need to continue processing more ore? The only logical conclusion is that they have four to five nuclear weapons shells waiting for the weapons grade material to be produced and machined into the proper shapes.

For those who still haven't got it yet, very soon we will all see photos on TV of either a sudden underground depression with a wide flat dust cloud or the seismograph markings that indicate a nuclear test in Iran. And the United Nations remains "seized of the problem." No big deal, what's another nuclear bomb in a world with more than a handful of nuclear nations.

The problem is that one of the world's most infamous terrorist supporting nations will have the bomb. And no one is doing anything about it but flapping their gums and clucking their tongues. Tsk, tsk.

How did we get here? The usual reasons. No proof till it was too late. Inspectors only recently found evidence of highly enriched material. And hey, guess what, Iran lied! Gee, there's a surprise.

Obviously, diplomatic pressure isn't working -- hasn't worked. In an all too familiar pattern, the nation of Iran is saying one thing in public and then continuing to build their weapons program to the test phase where they will shortly demonstrate that the theory that they could build a bomb is in fact a reality.

Has the time passed for direct action? Probably. It might have been possible when U.S. intelligence detected the purchase of centrifuges in sufficient quantity to produce weapons grade material in a few years. But no, that would be unilateral and would incense the idealists.

And that, sports fans, is exactly what the United Nations and their idealist friends and neighbors wanted. Not for Iran to create a weapon. The objective was less insidious but just as deadly. The objective was avoidance -- avoid confronting Iran, to avoid giving an excuse for direct action. If you hide the facts or build in long delays, direct action won't seem the next logical step.

Take for instance the current U.N. "deadline", November 27. If you tumble to the fact that no one tells you when they are starting something, but when they are almost done, it is quite possible that Iran already has their first weapon being loaded up. The November 27 deadline may never happen. Why? Because the test could happen before that date comes around, making the whole deadline business a joke. And if we are wrong about the timing? The idealist will gleefully point that out as if the bullet was somehow dodged. Stupidity!

You have to understand the philosophy to understand the motives and understand the motives to understand the actions.

If "peace at any cost" is the philosophy, then you understand the motive behind avoiding any confrontation. That's because there are people in this world who will not stand by idly and watch while the appeasers hold hands and hope for the best and with wishful thinking, try to will the evil away. The idealist hates those people and goes to great lengths to avoid giving them any excuse. And thus comes the actions. Hide and deceive. The idealist wants to give Iran time to make the right decision. But as usual, the smoking gun theory can't get in the appeaser's head. The idealists points at Iraq and sniffs at the warnings. Just rants of alarmists. And Iran does NOT make the right decision?

The key to remember is that the response of the idealist when Iran DOES test their first nuclear weapons will be one week's worth of condemnation. The text of that condemnation will be characterized by Kofi Anan: "It's a text that all six countries can live with". Then of course there will be broadsides at whomever is President at the time. Then the hand wringing will begin and the Secretary of State will be dispatched to try to put the Iranian nuclear genie back in his little bottle. Too late. Oh my. And then remarkably, just like India and Pakistan, the whole thing will blow over.

And why will the whole issue nearly disappear? Because the idealists do not recognize their own failures, never have, never will. Because idealism feeds itself. Head in the sand, everything will turn out okay because, like willful children, they fail to recognize the world has deceitful evil people a plenty. The top of the idealist's list of decietful people are the realists. That is the only evil they recognize.

There is nothing wrong with setting positive, enlightened goals. But to ignore reality and clear historically proven indicators when the stakes are so high, is simply suicide. The idealist's answer, incredibly, is to publish the plans and technology for nuclear weapons on the Internet so every school kid can learn how to build one. You see, if everyone has one, then the current nuclear club led by realists will not rule the earth with their evil weapons.

And that returns us to the problem. The idealist cannot believe that all idealists lack malicious intent. And this is doubly true in the world of nuclear weapons. The idealist identifies with the Terrorist, who is, after all, just standing up to the evil realists, side by side with the idealist, standing up for their cause. Brothers in protest.

Terrorists will never acquire a bomb because they don't have the nuclear material required they believe. No rationale nation would ever give a terrorist weapons grade nuclear material after all. Never mind that Libya tells a different story. Never mind that if not for Iran, and Libya's sudden change in heart, Khadafi would have been the next nuclear Islamist.

And anyway all that nuclear material out there is so well guarded, no one will be able to steal it, will they. Right?

Unfortunately, the United Nations and their idealist friends have gotten it wrong once more, and a large city in Europe and/or the United States will pay the price, if not some nice jew filled city in Israel. Once again the "Arab street" will come out to cheer and wave their banners high, celebrating the new Terrorist Bomb. It doesn't matter if it's delivered by Hezbollah, Hamas, or any of the dozens of affiliated al-Qaeda organizations. Even if it's al-Sadr who blows Baghdad to hell and gone, the "street" will celebrate the Terrorist Bomb.

And meanwhile, the most powerful nation on the world succumbs to the electoral power of the deadly idealists, and can't figure out when or how to take direct action until it is far too late. Shame on us. History will show that we let the civilized world down and maybe Congress will have another Commission. Of course, they might have to hold the Commission in Detroit, a radioactive Washington, D.C. not being condusive to their health.

Sources:

Iran Starts Tests on Uranium, CNN, 9/21/2004
Iranian Nuclear Chronology, MILNET, 7/28/2004