The scenario
to be studied is a scaled-down and highly-idealized example of coordinated
theater missile defense using ground and air-based assets. The generic
assets and their behaviors are described below. In some instances, fairly
specific times, distances, and operations have been provided; these should
be considered typical or illustrative and not taken literally.
The Defenders
Terminal Missile
Defense Battery (TMDB)
The TMDB is
a multi-component system, comprised of a command/communications trailer,
a missile transporter trailer, a missile launcher trailer, a radar, and
a power unit. When moved to a location, the system is non-functional until
ordered to orient the radar. This operation takes a few hours. After that
time, the system remains non-functional, but may be activated by issuance
of either a "survey horizon" or "confirm target" command. In the first
of these instances, the radar may be said to have a relatively wide field-of-view,
shallow depth acquisition region, while in the second instance the field-of-view
is narrowed and the acquisition range is extended. The TMDB system can
determine a firing solution against an enemy missile in either mode of
operation; the time to do so is longer in the first mode than in the second.
A radar stays in a specified mode until directed to change.
The TMDB system
will make a determination of engageability for each enemy missile which
enters its acquisition range. A Ground Based Interceptor (GBI) salvo will
be fired against each enemy missile so long as a salvo size is defined,
a fire when ready command has been received, sufficient missiles are ready
to meet salvo requirements, and the TMDB has determined an engagement is
feasible.
Airborne
Command, Control, and Surveillance Platform (ACCSP)
The ACCSP is
responsible for surveillance of enemy airspace, monitoring enemy ground
activity, directing interceptor fighters against an enemy missile in boost,
and directing strike fighters to engage an enemy TEL on the ground.
The ACCSP loiter
pattern is nominally a figure eight, 180 km in length, 30 km wide, with
long axis parallel to the enemy border, point of nearest approach 90 km
from the border. The plane loiters at 25,000 feet, flies at mach 0.7, and
is continuously on station. Surveillance of both air and ground is continuous.
A TEL can be unambiguously detected 20 minutes after it is moved from concealment,
provided it is visible on a line-of-sight and within the sensor field of
regard. A boosting missile can be detected within 10 seconds of launch,
provided it is visible on a line- of-sight and within the sensor field
of regard.
The ACCSP commands
Intercept Fighters (IFs) and Strike Fighters (SFs) to engage boosting missiles
and TELs, respectively. An ACCSP would first detect a potential target,
then command one or more appropriate fighters to engage that target. When
a command to engage is issued by the ACCSP, a fighter will autonomously
attempt an engagement and report its status to the ACCSP. The ACCSP will
maintain a list of all target acquisitions, weapon-target assignments,
and status of all enemy and friendly assets within its field of view.
Intercept
Fighter (IF)
An IF is a
fighter aircraft which carries two advanced multi-stage air-to-air missiles
(AAMs) capable of engaging theater ballistic missiles (SSMs) at long standoff
distances ( 100 km or more) while the SSM is still in boost phase. The
IF typically flies in friendly airspace, closer to the border than the
ACCSP, and on a smaller, though similar, racetrack. When commanded to engage
an SSM, the IF turns as fast as possible toward the threat (if necessary)
until the target is within a 40 degree cone ( + 20!in azimuth) from the
plane's axis, then launches one or more air- to-air missiles toward the
target, according to existing doctrine (e.g., fire and forget, shoot-look-
shoot, ...). The IF would return to its loiter pattern as soon as possible
after launching an AAM. The IF may enter enemy airspace in its maneuver
to turn to the target.
Advanced
Air-to-Air Missile (AAM)
An AAM is a
fire-and-forget weapon. This particular incarnation is used solely to engage
an enemy ballistic missile while in boost; it would not be appropriate
for engagement of an enemy aircraft. While theoretically capable of arbitrarily
high velocities, practical matters -- notably drag and sensor limitations
-- will impose restrictions on the effective velocity and range of any
AAM and operational constraints on the use of the AAM in general. Fired
by an IF, the AAM initially climbs to get into a segment of the atmosphere
where drag is minimal, then homes to the target. The practical consequence
of this behavior is that targets too close to the IF (much less than 100
km) may require too radical a turn to allow homing, while targets too distant
will eventually run away from the AAM as the AAM kill stage slows due to
drag.
Strike Fighter
(SF)
A SF is a fighter
aircraft which carries one guided bomb unit (GBU) to engage the theater
ballistic missile's transporter erector launcher (TEL) from relatively
close distances ( 10 km or less) when the TEL is not concealed. The SF
loiters in friendly airspace, essentially at the border and on a racetrack
similar to that of the IF. When commanded to engage a TEL, the SF turns
as fast as possible toward the threat , and then flies toward the threat
until the threat is within engagement range of the GBU. After releasing
the GBU, the SF would either begin a return to its loiter pattern or begin
another attack run, based upon the outcome of the engagement. A SF with
all GBUs expended would automatically return to its loiter pattern.
Guided Bomb
Unit (GBU)
A GBU is a
fire-and-track weapon. Effectiveness against a given target should be drawn
from an appropriate distribution which considers engagement geometry. A
GBU dies with probability = 1.0 upon impact. Time of impact may be specified
as a function of engagement geometry.
Airborne
Laser (ABL)
The ABL will
perform as the long-range component of an integrated theater missile defense
(TMD) architecture, with interceptor missiles performing area defense (defended
footprint on the order of 100 km) serving as an underlay. The ABL was among
the first defensive assets introduced into the theater, and provided a
significant level of defense while the rest of the architecture was being
deployed. An ABL is assumed to have been flown to its loiter area and maintains
on-station coverage in that area for the duration of the scenario. The
location and extent of the loiter area for a given theater would vary and
must balance where the perceived threat is coming from, the perceived threat
to the ABL from enemy air power and surface to air missile threats, our
air strength, and the ABL's self-defense capabilities. Nominally, the platform
will be based over friendly territory at distances from the FEBA ranging
from a few tens of km to 100 nautical miles, and loiter in a deconflicted
"box" a few tens of kilometers wide and perhaps one hundred to a few hundred
kilometers long.
The ABL will
scan enemy territory using its own on-board sensors; acquisition is probably
unrestricted in azimuth, but its view up and down (elevation) will be restricted.
The ABL can engage, however, only over a restricted range of azimuths,
and will not be capable of engaging toward the rear of the aircraft without
turning the aircraft. The ABL manages its battle space autonomously, and
decides the order and timing of all shots, and whether or not it will turn
to engage a target.
The ABL is nominally
a 400 km system; that is, it is lethal to ranges on the order of 400 km
and beyond. The capabilities of a real ABL system are, of course, in the
realm of speculation but a number of mission analyses have indicated that
an ABL system with a 250 km lethal range would begin to offer mission utility
in a few scenarios, while systems with lethal ranges approaching 400 km
would offer very high defensive leverage in a number of worldwide scenarios
of interest. The near term technology to provide that performance will
probably require a 747-class aircraft, a multiple-megawatt-class laser,
and an output beam director with an aperture of perhaps 1.5- 2 m. If atmospheric
compensation and low total system jitters can be achieved, such a system
could destroy boosting missiles at altitudes on the order of 25 km and
above at ranges on the order of 400 km and beyond.
A real ABL's
laser fuel magazine would probably be sized to provide one hundred to a
few hundreds of seconds of firing time with nominal engagement times of
a few seconds per missile, dependent on range and missile type; the size
and duration of the proposed TMD scenario suggests that for all practical
purposes, the magazine may be considered infinite.
Surveillance
Satellite
A surveillance
satellite that is capable of detecting SSM launches and missiles in flight
is viewing the theater of operations. While not under command of the TMDB,
it is nevertheless capable of notifying the TMDB of a launch, so that in
the event the missile is undetected by the TMDB radar or ACCSP sensors,
the TMDB can still be made aware of hostile activities. The SSA may be
viewed as either a fixed, single asset (as in the case of a DSP satellite)
or a constellation of satellites drifting into and out of the theater,
much like proposed Brilliant Eyes concepts.
The Threat
Transporter
Erector Launcher (TEL)
The TEL is
a heavy-duty, road-mobile transportation vehicle perhaps 15 meters in length,
capable of moving at speeds on the order of 30-40 mph when loaded with
a missile, and slightly faster when not loaded. It moves by road between
points of concealment and pre-surveyed launch sites. Launch sites would
typically be in enemy territory, perhaps 1/3 of the missile's maximum range
behind the enemy border, though this may vary depending upon target location.
Typical TBM maximum ranges might be anywhere from 300 to 1000 km. Upon
arrival at a launch site, the TEL crew would erect and fuel a TBM, launch
as quickly as possible, and then move the empty TEL to an area of concealment;
arrival on site, launch, and departure would require about 30 minutes of
time.
In this scenario,
a TEL may be engaged by a GBU; the TEL must provide a lethality assessment
against such a threat . If engaged before a launch, the TEL must assess
the lethality of the engagement for both the TEL and the SSM it holds.
Surface to
Surface Missile (SSM)
The SSM is
a SCUD-like missile, although it may be multi-stage. It should be feasible
to specify a point-to-point engagement (i.e., launch and impact points),
and the missile will determine an appropriate flight program so long as
the engagement is within its maximum range; the missile does not do any
active homing to its target. The SSM is a fire and forget weapon; no commands
are issued to or accepted by the missile subsequent to launch. Multiple
stage missiles or single stage missiles which break up upon reentry or
which dispense a separating warhead present multiple targets to systems
which attack after boost phase is completed.
In this scenario,
a SSM may be engaged by either an AAM or a missile launched by the TMDB;
the SSM must provide a lethality assessment against an engagement by these
systems.