MILNET Brief Sudan Brief: True Cooperation or Islamic Double Speak? (Updated 9/9) "President Umar al-Bashir in an interview with Al-Arabiyah television maintained that the Sudanese Government could not expel HAMAS because it has a political relationship with the group and stated there was no PIJ [Palestine Islamic Jihad] office in Sudan." - Patterns of Global Terrorism, 2003, U.S. State Department, 2003. |
"An expanding desert in the Darfur region, the result of an extended drought, pushed the region's Muslim Arab nomadic herders into greater contact with the Muslim black subsistence farmers and placed both groups in competition for increasingly limited natural resources. In early 2003, the farmers rebelled under the auspices of the Sudan Liberation Movement (S.L.M.) and Justice and Equality Movement (J.E.M.) against what they saw as the unjust treatment of the area's blacks under the Arabs, who they argue were being backed by the government in Khartoum (over fifty percent of the Sudanese military are Arabs from the Darfur region, which may help explain this perception).On 9/9, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell spoke out about the current situation in the Darfur region:
Khartoum's response was to offer varying degrees of support to the Janjaweed militias that have fought to destroy the uprising of the Fur, Zagawa and Messalit tribes. The conflict has escalated to the point where over 10,000 people have been killed and over a million civilians have fled to refugee camps in Chad where U.S. officials estimate that at least 320,000 people will die from lack of food, clean water and medical attention."
"We concluded that genocide has been committed in Darfur and that the government of Sudan (search) and the Janjaweed (Arab militias) bear responsibility -- and genocide may still be occurring"Clearly the U.S. is losing patience with Sudan despite the government's recent attempts to court western approval.
 Map of Sudan
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"Military regimes favoring Islamic oriented governments have dominated national politics since independence from the UK in 1956. Sudan has been embroiled in a civil war for all but 10 years of this period (1972-82). The wars are rooted in northern economic, political, and social domination of non-Muslim, non-Arab southern Sudanese. Since 1983, the war and war- and famine-related effects have led to more than 2 million deaths and over 4 million people displaced. The ruling regime is a mixture of military elite and an Islamist party that came to power in a 1989 coup. Some northern opposition parties have made common cause with the southern rebels and entered the war as a part of an anti-government alliance. Peace talks gained momentum in 2002-03 with the signing of several accords, including a cease-fire agreement." 1Like many northern African nations, Sudan enjoys a wealth of mineral export potentials, yet its people are the poorest in the world. Sudan also boasts of a $2.45 billion in exports, making it a rich nation compared to many in Africa. Clearly, the problem is both developmental and governmental. There are two classes in Sudan, haves and have nots, a pattern widespread throughout the continent. And like many other African nations, they suffer from the standard desert like land problems, "inadequate supplies of potable water; wildlife populations threatened by excessive hunting; soil erosion; desertification; and periodic drought." 2
"the north-south civil war has affected Sudan's neighbors by drawing them into the fighting and by forcing them to provide shelter to refugees, to contend with infiltration by rebel groups, and to serve as mediators; Sudan has provided shelter to Ugandan refugees and cover to Lord's Resistance Army soldiers; Sudan accuses Eritrea of supporting Sudanese rebel groups; efforts to demarcate the porous boundary with Ethiopia have been delayed by fighting in Sudan; Kenya's administrative boundary still extends into the Sudan, creating the "Ilemi triangle"; Egypt and Sudan retain claims to administer the triangular areas that extend north and south of the 1899 Treaty boundary along the 22nd Parallel, but have withdrawn their military presence; Egypt is economically developing and currently effectively administers the "Hala'ib triangle" north of the Treaty Line; Sudan has pledged to work with the Central African Republic to stem violent skirmishes over water and grazing among related pastoral populations along the border.Sudan is governed, not surprisingly due to its fit in the third world pattern, by a Junta which took power in 1989. It's Islamic fundamentalist government is an alliance between the military and the National Congress Party -- NCP -- which was formerly called the National Islamic Front. And yes, their roots are in terrorism, having grown to power by killing and torturing the infidels who resisted their climb to power. The current President Ahmad Al-Bashir suspended the nations constitution in 1999. Members of the president's cabinet are mostly members of the NCP.
...Sudan has turned around a struggling economy with sound economic policies and infrastructure investments, but it still faces formidable economic problems, starting from its low level of per capita output. From 1997 to date, Sudan has been implementing IMF macroeconomic reforms. In 1999, Sudan began exporting crude oil and in the last quarter of 1999 recorded its first trade surplus, which, along with monetary policy, has stabilized the exchange rate. Increased oil production, revived light industry, and expanded export processing zones helped sustain GDP growth at 6.1% in 2003. Agriculture production remains Sudan's most important sector, employing 80% of the work force and contributing 39% of GDP, but most farms remain rain-fed and susceptible to drought. Chronic instability - including the long-standing civil war between the Muslim north and the Christian/pagan south, adverse weather, and weak world agricultural prices - ensure that much of the population will remain at or below the poverty line for years." 2
"Insurgency is an organized movement aimed at the overthrow or destabilization of a constituted government through subversion, terrorism and armed conflict." 4Hayden cites a wealth of data on Usama Bin Laden's fleeing to Sudan after being expelled and stripped of his Saudi citizenship. Why Sudan? Just like Afghanistan, UBL found like minded leadership in Sudan, and Al Qaeda's roots began there and then moved into Afghanistan to take advantage of the Mujadeen nationalism and Taliban rule.
"Though it has taken some positive steps to curb terrorism (including the ejection from its territory of terrorist financier Usama bin Laden), the Sudan remains in violation of UN Security Council resolutions that demand the surrender of three suspects in the 1995 assassination attempt against Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. Sudan also allows known terrorists to use its territory for sanctuary and training.Note that the Sudanese government is suspected of contributing to ongoing operations and training of the Lebanese Hezbollah as well as world infamous Hamas, organizations responsible for more than 85% of all terrorist activity before Al Qaeda began its push in the last decade.
In August, U.S. cruise missiles destroyed a Sudanese pharmaceutical factory suspected of producing the precursors to VX nerve gas.
Affiliated Groups: Lebanese Hezbollah, PIJ, ANO, Hamas
Sanctions: US bans all exports to and imports from, as well as US investment in, Sudan." 3
"Sudan has been interested in acquiring a chemical weapons warfare capability since the 1980s and has sought assistance from a number of countries with chemical warfare programs. We believe that Iraq, in particular, as provided technical assistance to Khartoum. In addition, the finding of a known VX precursor chemical near a pharmaceutical facility in Khartoum suggests that Sudan may be pursuing a more advanced chemical warfare capability. Sudan acceded to the CWC in 1999, although allegations of Sudanese chemical warfare use against rebels in Southern Sudan have persisted. These and prior allegations of chemical warfare use, have not been confirmed. Further, Khartoum's desire to present a more moderate image and alleviate its international isolation will cause Sudan to proceed with its chemical warfare program with caution." 5MILNET believes that Sudan's chemical program present more than the usual chemical warfare threat to the region and its internal foes, but that their long time ties with terrorism could make them an equal threat to proliferation of chemical weapons to Al Qaeda or even dissenting terrorist groups active in Iraq prior to the new Iraqi elections in late 2004.
"The Sudanese Government also took steps in 2003 to strengthen its legislative and bureaucratic instruments for fighting terrorism by ratifying the International Convention for the Suppression of the Financing of Terrorism. Sudan also ratified the African Union's Convention on the Prevention and Combating of Terrorism and the Convention of the Organization of the Islamic Conference on Combating Terrorism. In June, Sudanese Minister of Justice Ali Mohamed Osman Yassin issued a decree establishing an office for combating terrorism. In 2003, Sudan signed a counterterrorism cooperation agreement with the Algerian Government, which during the 1990s accused Sudan of harboring wanted Algerian terrorists. Sudan also signed a counterterrorism agreement with Yemen and Ethiopia." 8Unfortunately, our intelligence sources say that while some improvements have been made, the country remains a terrorist training ground, and that U.S. officials are running out of patience. Indeed the Darfur situation may convince those hoping diplomacy has won in Sudan, to finally admit that like many Middle Eastern countries, the North African Sudanese are saying one thing in public and doing the opposite in actuality. It could very well mean the U.S. will have to divert precious military resources to forcing Sudan to changes its policies. Timing of course will be critical, as many also admit that the U.S. is unable to field another force in the world without some major "give and take" elsewhere.