MILNET: Military Information - Future Threats

In a paranoid sense, the world is full of potential threats to the U.S. or from the world perspective, to world peace. This section of MILNET offers an exploration of the countries whose ability, exposure, and stability may pose a threat to world interests in the next 20 to 30 years. Since this time frame is unrealistic to plan for, it goes without saying that any "predictions" made are sophmoric, if not ludicrous. However, it is clear that a surviving nation in the next 20 to 30 years, must look forward at any dangers before it, and take steps to ensure either negation of the dangers, or a method to cope and lessen the impact of such dangers. Thus or discussion begins.

We will quickly look at six obvious nations which present the most clear dangers when observed from the viewpoints of ability, exposure, and stability:

Russia
China
North Korea
Iran
Japan
Germany

Of these six nations, each has a sore spot that could easily flair into a major change in the government, which in turn could place them on a military and economic collision course with THE superpower in the world, the U.S.

Note also that beyond these six nations, we feel that all of Eastern Europe remains an area of great instability and could easily foster a larger conflagaration. For instance, despite all the efforts of the West, and the fall of the Soviet Union, and a U.N. force in several regions in and around the former Yugoslavia, that area continues to threaten to spread religious war into each of the bordering countries. More alarming is the fact that U.S. troops are once again right in the middle and at risk with little control over the true fate of the region if things go to hell quickly.

And least you believe MILNET is inventing threats where none exist or are over-zealous or paranoid in our threat analysis, a large number of documents are mirrored online at MILNET to support our contentions. A quote from the U.S. Air Force's Air Force 2025 future weapons analysis (Space Control with a REusable Military AiRcraft (SCREMAR) makes it pretty the U.S. military is not above consideration of future threats dealing with China and Russia at least...

"Future concerns also include the possibility of a nation with notable space capabilities, such as Russia, performing sophisticated ASAT warfare. A resurgent ultranationalist Russia or a disgruntled China could either selectively engage and destroy our satellites as needed or use the previously mentioned method of random destruction depending on how many space assets they have in the area and if they can afford to lose them." 1

Russia

Russia, and the smaller eastern European states at her border, provide a clear danger to anyone assessing the geo-political and economic conditions of the world. Russia's inability to collect taxes in order to maintain a valid budget is clearly a major fault which when combined with her flagging economy could easily lead to a populous revolution. This in turn could easily lead to a return to old ways, Communism. That this experiment was a failure is clear, however, many inside Russia would point to the average income, as well as average life span during the powerful days of Russia as the leader of the Soviet Union. Both figures are well below the post-Glasnost period today, and many in Russia perceive the current capitalist movement as much a bitter failure as the other. Stronger leadership would resolve this problem however where is Russia to find a Russian leader with experience in a capitalist world?

Russia's threat is one that flys in the face of the events over the last ten years. Yes the Russian nation has come a long way towards reconciliation with the West. Yes the Russian government continues to make great strides towards democracy, human rights, and individual freedom. And yes the Russian nation is clearly not a world peace threat today by its overt actions ...no moves to expand her borders, no saber rattling at the rest of the world and seemingly, no sponsorship of terrorism. The Evil Empire seems to be turning over a new leaf. Great!

Unfortunately, Russia's inability to do something as "simple" as collect taxes in order to repair their economy, and frightening inability to control her own industry and military arms sales (specifically to China...see below), are screwing up their own security in Northern Asia. Not that these problems can be fixed easily or anyone could expect overnight success. It takes some very strong leadership and some dedicated help to overcome these failings in the Russian government.

However the fact remains that Russia is taking huge risks by selling high technology arms to China, a nation who could conceivably turn back to threaten Russia's borders in a heartbeat. Is China to be trusted?

China

Possibly one of the most dangerous nations in the world today is China. Not because of any visible threat or of any technological adantage, China is never-the-less greatly feared by the West. From its burgeoning (controlled but growing quickly) western style industrial base, to acquisition and control of the major economic power that is Hong Kong, China is poised to make some rather dramatic changes in its ability to acquire and further develop new technology.

Moreover, China's realization (perhaps) that it must figure out either how to beat America at the technology game, or come up with other means to uplift their economic growth in order to fund their military might.

There have been several studies based upon China's inability to threaten the Western world in terms of conventional warfare. Inability to do major damage during Vietnam is sometimes used as an example. Others believe that Taiwan and other off shore sites are at risk, but in no immediate dangers.

Some cite the capable but not up-to-par technology of the Chinese military and the Chinese inability to force a major overhaul in their infrastructure to upgrade to today's technology. However recent events may negate this viewpoint.

Russia has, since the breakup of the Soviet Union, sold enormously valuable high tech weaponry to China, and as agreed to continue sales of even more destabilizing goods. More threatening, is that the Chinese have been given license and the transfer of physical technology as well as knowelege for their own manufacture of leading edge military weapons, satellites, and launch platforms, all by our new friends the Russians.

China is by no means a little player. She has very capable ground based nuclear arms, and has quietly been developing the means to deliver their warheads to their opponents. Touted as merely defensive weapons (no one believes "defensive" but many might accept "deterrent"), these weapons are today de-stabilizing factors in the Southern Asia region. Taiwan would be a clear target as any imperialistic movement to expand China's borders clearly hold trouble for Taiwan. And of course, there is no contractual agreement that simply hands over Taiwan as there existed with Hong Kong. The economic might of Taiwan, and its penetration into world markets is clearly a tantalizing fruit hanging low for Chinese planners.

With Western nations all vieing to jump into Chinese markets as they slowly begin to open, it is also clear that it will be nearly impossible to keep high tech from providing China with the means to improve command, control, and intelligence capabilities. Some analysts that in order for China to emerge as a major player, they must emulate the U.S.' Revolution in Military Affairs. Current Chinese military capabilities and infrastructures such as launch ability for satellites, or the satellites themselves means that China is close to upgrading their space based assets. High tech payloads on such launchers will enable China to field technically capable, space-borne intelligence assets. America's ownership of the "high ground" is certainly in no current danger of being ursurped, however, a properous and technology adept China has the opportunity to not only fix assets in space, but to deploy anti-satellite capabilities as well. Especially since the actual physical properties required to disable a satellite are fundamentally trivial. Once China has the capability to track and guide space vehicles at 21st century levels, any advantages the U.S. has in space today becomes mute.

And of course with the Russians blindly (perhaps greedily is a better description) selling their top of the line weapons systems to the Chinese, the Chinese will not need to have a "Revolution in Military Affairs" as some learned colleagues imply. Or perhaps the influx of new technology base is already occuring, and the revolution was nothing but a brief victory in the negoiations for arms sales with Russia.

Japan

Anyone can tell you that Japan is a major economic power. Next to the oil rich middle eastern states, Japan is a leader in the buying of America. Asset after asset for sale in the U.S. is being purchased by Japan. This effectively places U.S. technology in the hands of Japanese nationals who continue to learn from the U.S., and then take that knowlege home to Japan. A fine example of this technology drift is the near collapse of of U.S. semiconductor memory manufacturers in the late 1970s an effect clearly caused by a glut of Japanese manufactured devices built from U.S. technology thefts.

Their technology is of the finest caliber in electronics (especially consumer electronics). No one could doubt the Japanese ability to field much of the space borne intelligence equipment, and Japanese launch platforms, while not yet large payload capable, certainly offer the opportunity for quick growth in launch capability. In other words, it wouldn't take much for Japanese military advocates to place Japan in the battle for the high ground and be fiercly competitive.

Japan's nuclear power industry is one of the most effective and pervasive in the world. Due to the amount of excess fuel available at any given time, Japan could easily build some 10,000 nuclear weapons in relatively short periods. The NPT (Non-Proliferation Treaty) prevents Japanese development of nuclear weapons, however, an antagonistic Japan could easily subvert that restriction, and before anyone could observe the event, Japan could quickly have nuclear weapons capability.

Japan is being pushed, ironically, by the U.S. to take more and more of its own defense onto her own shoulders. This effectively drives the Japanese to further develop their own military capabilities. Mixing a highly successful economy with increases in military expenditures, will inexorably increase the dangers of Japanese military adventures. Japan could easily surretipiously agree at the highest levels to change their constitution, thus allowing Japanese Defense Forces to leave "Japanese Soil".

With Japan, China, and Russia all poised for possible expansion in the northern Pacific rim, the area looks to be a tenderbox. And with governments in the southern Pacific rim adroitly refusing cooperation with U.S. allies, it is difficult for the U.S. to provide any meaningful alternative.

Science fiction/action writers such as Clive Clusser and Tom Clancey have already hit upon a Sino-Russian or Sino-Nippon-Russia alliance that could wreak havoc on the world peace. While its hard to imagine century old enemies like Japan and China working together in the region, the possibly is stunning in its impact. With the two working with Russia--oh dear!

Germany

Germany? A staunch and trusted ally of NATO a threat? Come now! Well it is a reach. Really only a paranoid would have "thunk it". But look at these facts. Germany is dealing with major difficulties in reconciling the East and West within their wider nation since the fall of the Berlin Wall. There is clearly a two class system at work...those who have good western style jobs, luxuries, and eat quite well; versus those who have never had any of those attributes, and who can dream but not touch. The Eastern regions of Germany are still quite poor, and despite a very humanitarian and caring government, there is growing resentment towards the affluent western regions. Western cities in Germany have had to deal with influxes of "refugees" from the Eastern side. Many of the Easterners returned home after finding that while you could buy all these wonderful things, where do you get the money? The human element in Germany is a powder keg, with many socialist reared individuals hoping for a better life than their East German hovels, and still rabid, vocal right wing minority (a small but noisy Nazi party still lives in Germany), and the somewhat happy western reared affluents. Today they are not living in any great harmony, and if Germany can't get the formula right for dealing with these three segments of population, the keg will explode.

That Germany is a capable military power goes without saying. And the current government is exceedingly stable. But if the distinction the two economic classes present are not resolved in the next few years, we envison a major revolution brewing which could turn this friendly nation into a real problem...for the third time in less than 100 years, a united Germany could threaten the entire central European continent.

Now this threat is really a reach in terms of real world possibilities. However the factors are there...disaffected citizenry with a clear economic separation of two distinct classes (the unemployed are structurally unemployed because of the lack of necessary skills to participate in the westernized, highly technical jobs that offer the monetary rewards they hunger for); centrally poised thus able to strike out in any direction for expansion; clearly capable of taking on military adventures; and strong enough economically and with infrastructure to support the building of a mighty war machine.

Nuclear weapons exist on German soil, however these are U.S. B-61 tactical weapons and it is quite possible these have been or are in the final stages of being removed back to the U.S. However, German manufactured and U.S. built aircraft are available. German nuclear industry is more than capable of churning out nuclear weapons, witness the industry's involvement in preparing other countries in their nuclear programs (India and Iraq just to name a few).

However, one of the factors that makes Germany dangerous is also a mitigating factor in terms of capability. Germany has undertaken a massive government subsidy program to aid those unemployed. Germany has one of the largest public welfare systems in the world. For this reason, a great deal of their GNP goes into the welfare role rather than into the industrial base. Thus in order to shift their economy to weapons procurement, there would be a noticeable reduction in that welfare role. Once begun, however, that reduction would incite more unrest in the poor population, thus exacerbating the instabilty factors. This could easily lead to a repid chain reaction putting the now stable government in the hands of hard-liners, producing either a right wing backlash, or a sudden heightening of socialist power in the country as the citizens look for new answers.

North Korea

A small nation, North Korea is one of the few rabid Communist countries left in the world. While rumors of famine or other unsurvivable hardships abound, it is not hard to see something is happening in the North. South Korea's agitation is probably indicitive of the situation...they have a keen sense for how their Chief opponent is doing. A nervous South Korea spells a dangerous North Korea.

Only in the last few years have we seen any promising signs. But the negatives far outweigh the positives. For instance, North Korea kept putting off (actually outright refusing) the signing of the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Getting inspections is nearly impossible, and despite their agreeing, finally, it is still not clear if we have stopped them from developing nuclear weapons capability. In fact, North Korea has been on the list of possible new nuclear states for several years. With estimates that predicted "now is the time", it is still disconcerting to find we cannot verify nuclear fueling transactions and with no inspections of ALL nuclear sites in North Korea, it is alarming to say the least. Recent settlements" between the West and Korea appear to be crafted with built in problems for North Korea which will change the balance in that region, and may well necessitate North Korea's later refutation of the terms.

North Korean weaponry is an enigma. We believe the Chinese have been supplying North Korea for years. With China now being shipped the latest weapons from Russia, would it be a far stretch to imagine those same weapons (or the ones they replace) are being shipped to Korea? If I were an intelligence guy, my number 1 priority would be to watch China, and my number two would be to watch North Korea. Boxes in, means weapons in, right?

At the same time, we haven't seen any evidence that North Korea is backing off from their stated goals to someday retake the south. With the U.S. supplying South Korea with the means to defend herself, and China (and indirectly Russia via arms sales to China), we don't have a warm and fuzzy feeling about the region.

Iran

The number one trouble spot in the Middle East is Iran. Undoubtedly, the Iranians continued support of world terrorism, their dismal record in terms of peaceful coexistence with their neighbors, and the sheer amount of material flowing into that country leads one to believe that we are seeing a monster being fed despite our knowlege of the size of its teeth and its rabid hunger for our bodies.

Since Iran continues to support groups violently opposing the Middle East peace process, it is also clear that they have no intention of being a positive force in the region for some time to come. In the next 20 to 30 years, Iran could easily become an even more evil influence on the countries that surround them.

Let's look at several facts.

Iran has no patience for western civilizations day to day operation ...Iran refuses to be part of our world community
Iran insists that to pursue the holy jihad is a natural course of events, and
Iran blames the U.S. and its allies for the woes of their peoples.

Support of terrorism aside (even if we could forget this ugly situation), Iran continues to foster hatred for what we call civilized behavior. Everyone of Iran's neighbors has a fear of their meddling, and the entire region looks at Iran and Iraq as evil brothers out to destroy their ways of living. Joined with Syria and Lebanon, we have the location for anti-world sentiment. Not just anti-Western, but Anti-Sematic, Anti-Russian, Anti-American, Anti-European.

Iran's military might was tested against Iraq in the Iran-Iraq war, and found to be quite capable. Whether militarily the could have stood up to the U.S. any better than the Iraqis is an academic question left to the reader. However, one does not have to be a very capable bully to make bully-like threats.

Iran has fairly modern aircraft (some of them given over by the Iraqis in a confusing event during the Gulf War), quite capable ground forces, and plenty of cash to fund weapons development and procurement (the latter is the most threatening...Iranian home based technology is hampered by their anti- western stance).

Today Iran most likely has trouble with maintenance of their high tech weaponry, since much of the parts supply is being cut off as western states agree to not deal with countries clearly supporting terrorism such as Iran.

However, it is not clear if the embargos today will last into the next 20 years. With China supplying blindly to anyone who asks, it is also clear that in a short period of time, the Iranians could quite possibly wind up with new equipment from a supplier more than willing to also feed them maintenance and repair supplies. The fact that China is not restricted by oceans to deliver these supplies almost guarantees the constant resupply as needed.