MILNET-Commentary

A MILNET COMMENTARY
The leading Independent Defense & Intelligence Web-based information source in the United States

Bookmark www.milnet.com Contact milnet@milnet.com

_____________________________________________________________________________________

As U.S. leaders attempt to hold down the rhetoric and speculation about Anthrax based bio-terrorism after the death of three victims, one begins to consider other scenarios besides the Bin Laden connection. This is the final installment of a three part series that explores the other possibilities for the source of the bio-weapon unleashed on the U.S.

Possibility Three: The Iranian Connection

No evidence of who planted Anthrax in our nation's capital? Osama Bin Laden's Al-Qaida not implicated?

Who else hates America enough to grow a little Anthrax. Perhaps some even more deadly agents? Who has the capabilities and who has shown that they can not only grow the spores but has already been documented as deploying bio-weapons?

One of the nations leading the race to become an NBC armed nation in the Middle East is Iran. With a nuclear program built with help by China and Russia, the Iranian facility at Bushehr will be completed soon with the ability to create suitable quantities of fissile material to build a number of nuclear warheads.

Dwarfed by the huge budget for nuclear program, is a heavy dual-use purchase program and what the CIA believes is a well entrenched biological and chemical production infrastructure that has been in operation since the Iraq-Iran war. In that war, a small number of biological and chemical attacks were used in response to the Iraqi's use of NBC weapons.

Motivation

Iran's moderate factions are gaining more and more popularity in the countryside, however the radical leadership is still in charge of many of the institutions of the government and Iran is a hotbed of Islamic radicalism, essentially being one of the largest Sunni Muslim world communities. Like the Saudi Arabian Wahhabi sect of Islamic fundamentalists, these extremists believe the destruction of any religion or people besides strict adherents to Islam is a sacred duty worthy of elevation to heaven.

With a motivation that now seems typical for Islamic Extremists, it is not hard to picture a particularly virulent sub-group sitting down and plotting how to take some of the Anthrax or other bio agents readily available to them, and planning out a simple but extremely effective attack on the U.S. using the postal system. With the hatred of the U.S. foremost in their minds, and the relative safe in and out passage of the U.S. border which is known worldwide as being fully and easily penetrable, it seems like we should have expected an attack long before now. With the Iranian refugees flowing in and out of Europe, we would also expect it would not be long for events similar to those in the U.S. to be found in the U.K., France, or Germany as well as many of the other European nations.

And despite slowly thawing relations between the U.S. and Iran, it is clear that until the extremists are forced out and marginalized, they have a huge say in the Iranian expenditures making is somewhat easy to earmark some clandestine funds for an attack on America. In fact it is that very westernization that the extremists hate and fear thus America is blamed for their progressively lessening position of power.

Capability

The U.S. Defense Department's report Proliferation: Threat and Response (January, 2001) clearly spells out that Iran already has stockpiles of agent ready for use at a moments notice. Clearly they have demonstrated that they possess delivery systems capable of attacks on their neighbors. It is no great leap of logic then to presume the Iranians have, in the last twenty years learned the lessons necessary to build urban dispersion systems or perhaps even experimented on ways to simply but effectively disperse agents. Some of the bio agents Iran is thought to have are Anthrax, Botulin Toxin, Bubonic Plague. Speculation has abounded for several years that perhaps Russian Smallpox strains (pure unsupported speculation) might have been stolen or sold by unscrupulous scientists falling under hard times in the former Soviet Union.

In terms of chemical agents, Iran is thought to have several types of pesticide variant nerve gases, as well as other less toxic chemical agents. They have been known to have delivered to production blister, blood and choking agents in the past and at the same time there is no known regime to destroy these agents or at least no such regime has been observed. The development of binary delivery systems is also thought to have occurred, allowing Iran to field relatively inert components which can either be assembled and "armed" just prior to use or armed as part of the delivery mechanism (artillery shell or dispersing mechanism that mixes). Naturally the "some assembly required" type of agents would be ideal as a terrorist weapon used in crowded areas.

And since we know that Iran has already defied the teachings of Islam and used such weapons, it is clear there is no future compunction against the use of these kinds of weapons. Clearly an attack against infidels would be considered perhaps even more acceptable then an attack against the Muslim troops of Iraq.

The Defense Department report and other sources confirm that Iran, like Iraq, wishes to become the dominant power in the Middle East and in the past few years has pulled out all the stops -- approving the manufacture and stockpiling of NBC weapons to guard against the day when they will have to use force to complete that goal.

Delivery

Just like Iraq, the Taliban or Osama Bin Laden's Al Qaida, the Iranian extremists finds the U.S. border an easy penetration target. A few student visas, some money for a semester or a couple of quarters, and suddenly you have an agent who has disappeared off the radar scope from the INS and is now living in a Muslim community many miles or states away from where their student visa and documents attest they should be.

And just like the Al Qaida sleepers, an Iranian sleeper could work in any number of jobs in America, waiting for the word from home to come alive and begin their own reign of terror. Perhaps that word would come after some other terrorist organization created an event that would mask and hide their own attacks.

And as in Pakistan, Iraq and many other countries that foster Islamic extremists, young boys are being taught the relative merits of attacking the great satan, that country of infidels known as America. '

It would not be surprising if, over that last decade, Iranin travel in and out of the United States has only been limited by our ability to arrest and deport visitors who have outstayed there visas.

Putting It All Together

In conclusion we have looked at all the three highly likely possibilities for the delivery of Anthrax into our postal system. Each has its merits and none, at this time, cannot be totally ruled out. Below we summarize these three plus a few other possibilities in a table sorted by highest probability:

Source Terrorist Rationale Probability Factor

Iranian Pure hatred of America, Britain and many European nations, the common Islamic extremist view to killing infidels and the purposeful mis-interpretation of the Koran and other holy works, combined with the avid support and driven by various hardline clerics who remain in power in Iran as well as festering anti-American dissent and anger over U.S. military activities in the Middle East (for instance bombing of Iraq, support of Israel, and now the bombing of Afghanistan). There are a large number of secular schools whose curricula include anti-western and specific anti-American teachings of hate and destruction. Cutaneous Anthrax: 99%
Weapons Grade Inhalation Anthrax: 97%
Natural based Inhalation Anthrax: 99%
Other Bio-Agents: 98%
Chemical Agents: 99%

Iraqi Pure hatred of America, Britain and many European nations, the common Islamic extremist view to killing infidels and the purposeful mis-interpretation of the Koran and other holy works, combined with the avid support, funding and direction of Suddam Hussein; provide a solid history of manufacturing and stockpiling both bio and chemical agents; provide a clear possibility of Iraqi participation in bio-terror in the U.S. Almost every secular school features curricula that include anti-western and specific anti-American teachings of hate and destruction. Cutaneous Anthrax: 95%
Weapons Grade Inhalation Anthrax: 95%
Natural based Inhalation Anthrax: 95%
Other Bio-Agents: 95%
Chemical Agents: 95%

Hezbollah Lebanese or Syrian support might provide the source of materials used by a Hezbollah agent. The motivation factor is Pure hatred of America, Britain and many European nations, the common Islamic extremist view to killing infidels and the purposeful mis-interpretation of the Koran and other holy works, combined with the avid support and perhaps driven by other proven terrorist elements (PFLP, PLO, many many others) as well as festering anti-American dissent and anger over U.S. military activities in the Middle East (for instance bombing of Iraq, support of Israel, and now the bombing of Afghanistan). There are a large number of secular schools in both Lebanon and Syria whose curricula include anti-western and specific anti-American teachings of hate and destruction. The same is true of many secular schools in the occupied terroritories of Israel. Subcutaneous Anthrax: 85%
Weapons Grade Inhalation Anthrax: 50%
Natural based Inhalation anthrax: 85%
Other bio agents: 60%
Chemical Agents: 60%
Note: Ratings are predicated on an outside source of agents, we don't believe Palestinians can hide the NBC agent manufactuing from Isreal

Al Qaida Typically supported in Afghanistan with aid from Pakistan. Pure hatred of America, Britain and many European nations, the common Islamic extremist view to killing infidels and the purposeful mis-interpretation of the Koran and other holy works, combined with the avid support and driven by long time terrorist leaders such as Dr. Ayman
Al-Zawahari, and Osama Bin Laden as well as festering anti-American dissent and anger over U.S. military activities in the Middle East (for instance bombing of Iraq, support of Israel, and now the bombing of Afghanistan). Much of the original Taliban support is from Pakistan where still today a large number of secular studies include anti-western and specific anti-American teachings of hate and destruction. Cutaneous Anthrax: 85%
Weapons Grade Inhalation Anthrax: 65%
Natural based Inhalation anthrax: 75%
Other Bio-Agents: 75%
Chemical Agents: 85%
Note: Ratings are predicated on an outside source of agents, we don't believe Al Qaida could hide the NBC agent manufactuing. However, what is found by U.S. Special Forces troops in the weeks following the onset of ground assaults in Afghanistan may indicate otherwise. Possible sources could be Pakistan, Iraq, or possibly Iran, however it is not clear how much support Osama Bin Laden has in Iran.

Domestic Right wing militias in the U.S. have spoken often of a real revenge against liberals who have ruined America and brutally killed people like themselves, people they easily identify with, people such as Randy Weaver's Wife at Ruby Ridge or The Koresh followers at Waco, Texas both which serve as rallying cries. One of the worst fears of anti-domestic terror teams is the possibility of a major international terrorist group teaming up with a particulary violent domestic terrorist to provide weapons hitherto unavailable to the domestic terrorist (SEMTEK plastique or bio-chem agents). Cutaneous Anthrax: 95%
Weapons Grade Inhalation Anthrax: 25%
Natural based Inhalation Anthrax: 75%
Other Bio-Agents: 25%
Chemical Agents: 25%
Note: Ratings jump to 95% if the right foreign agents provide material. Ratings do not include domestic ethnic organizations with increasing terrorist-like activities.

Sources: American Federation of Scientists Terrorist Pages, U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. Navy Post Graduate School Terrorist Profiles, and the MILNET Profiles of Domestic Terrorism

Possibility One: Domestic Terrorism
Possibility Two: The Iraqi Scenario

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________

distributed worldwide by AFI Research afi@supanet.com

Source Terrorist	Rationale	Probability Factor
Iranian	Pure hatred of America, Britain and many European nations, the common Islamic extremist view to killing infidels and the purposeful mis-interpretation of the Koran and other holy works, combined with the avid support and driven by various hardline clerics who remain in power in Iran as well as festering anti-American dissent and anger over U.S. military activities in the Middle East (for instance bombing of Iraq, support of Israel, and now the bombing of Afghanistan). There are a large number of secular schools whose curricula include anti-western and specific anti-American teachings of hate and destruction.	Cutaneous Anthrax: 99% Weapons Grade Inhalation Anthrax: 97% Natural based Inhalation Anthrax: 99% Other Bio-Agents: 98% Chemical Agents: 99%
Iraqi	Pure hatred of America, Britain and many European nations, the common Islamic extremist view to killing infidels and the purposeful mis-interpretation of the Koran and other holy works, combined with the avid support, funding and direction of Suddam Hussein; provide a solid history of manufacturing and stockpiling both bio and chemical agents; provide a clear possibility of Iraqi participation in bio-terror in the U.S. Almost every secular school features curricula that include anti-western and specific anti-American teachings of hate and destruction.	Cutaneous Anthrax: 95% Weapons Grade Inhalation Anthrax: 95% Natural based Inhalation Anthrax: 95% Other Bio-Agents: 95% Chemical Agents: 95%
Hezbollah	Lebanese or Syrian support might provide the source of materials used by a Hezbollah agent. The motivation factor is Pure hatred of America, Britain and many European nations, the common Islamic extremist view to killing infidels and the purposeful mis-interpretation of the Koran and other holy works, combined with the avid support and perhaps driven by other proven terrorist elements (PFLP, PLO, many many others) as well as festering anti-American dissent and anger over U.S. military activities in the Middle East (for instance bombing of Iraq, support of Israel, and now the bombing of Afghanistan). There are a large number of secular schools in both Lebanon and Syria whose curricula include anti-western and specific anti-American teachings of hate and destruction. The same is true of many secular schools in the occupied terroritories of Israel.	Subcutaneous Anthrax: 85% Weapons Grade Inhalation Anthrax: 50% Natural based Inhalation anthrax: 85% Other bio agents: 60% Chemical Agents: 60% Note: Ratings are predicated on an outside source of agents, we don't believe Palestinians can hide the NBC agent manufactuing from Isreal
Al Qaida	Typically supported in Afghanistan with aid from Pakistan. Pure hatred of America, Britain and many European nations, the common Islamic extremist view to killing infidels and the purposeful mis-interpretation of the Koran and other holy works, combined with the avid support and driven by long time terrorist leaders such as Dr. Ayman Al-Zawahari, and Osama Bin Laden as well as festering anti-American dissent and anger over U.S. military activities in the Middle East (for instance bombing of Iraq, support of Israel, and now the bombing of Afghanistan). Much of the original Taliban support is from Pakistan where still today a large number of secular studies include anti-western and specific anti-American teachings of hate and destruction.	Cutaneous Anthrax: 85% Weapons Grade Inhalation Anthrax: 65% Natural based Inhalation anthrax: 75% Other Bio-Agents: 75% Chemical Agents: 85% Note: Ratings are predicated on an outside source of agents, we don't believe Al Qaida could hide the NBC agent manufactuing. However, what is found by U.S. Special Forces troops in the weeks following the onset of ground assaults in Afghanistan may indicate otherwise. Possible sources could be Pakistan, Iraq, or possibly Iran, however it is not clear how much support Osama Bin Laden has in Iran.
Domestic	Right wing militias in the U.S. have spoken often of a real revenge against liberals who have ruined America and brutally killed people like themselves, people they easily identify with, people such as Randy Weaver's Wife at Ruby Ridge or The Koresh followers at Waco, Texas both which serve as rallying cries. One of the worst fears of anti-domestic terror teams is the possibility of a major international terrorist group teaming up with a particulary violent domestic terrorist to provide weapons hitherto unavailable to the domestic terrorist (SEMTEK plastique or bio-chem agents).	Cutaneous Anthrax: 95% Weapons Grade Inhalation Anthrax: 25% Natural based Inhalation Anthrax: 75% Other Bio-Agents: 25% Chemical Agents: 25% Note: Ratings jump to 95% if the right foreign agents provide material. Ratings do not include domestic ethnic organizations with increasing terrorist-like activities.