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Is Richard Bennett on the mark with a theory on Strategic Withdrawl?  Just consider what it means if he is right!
Take Heed, this is important stuff, Mr. President!

The Logic of Taliban Withdrawal

With the Taliban being touted as being forced out of Kabul as well as seemingly melting into the landscape in other key Northern cities of Afghanistan, it is easy to be lulled into thinking that there is a sudden shift in power and yes, even a great event in the War on Terrorism.  While we want to burst out in applause and wing Kudos to the White House, the analysts in us urge some amount of caution and watchfulness.  Look for the signs of the sneaky adversary just waiting for you to walk into his trap.

While not experts in Afghanistan and certainly not perched with ear to ground, on the ground in that far away country, we bow to the expertise of AFI researchers and analysts, echoed by others in the industry (except, of course,  the main line U.S. media).  It seems quite possible that rather than a rout, we are looking at a well orchestrated retreat to stronger positions that may, in the end,  help the Taliban last out a long, cold winter.

And perhaps we might consider preparing for a logical progression of devastating reversals for the rag-tag, not very impressive Northern Alliance.

MILNET, once again thinking outside of the box, proposes the following scenario built on the facts and logical premises of the experts in the region.  While we won't go out on a limb and make a prediction, we will point out the fictional proposition that could, and just might come to pass.

Assumption:  Taliban Withdrawal is a tactical masterpiece of a well thought out survival strategy.

1)  The Taliban dig in for the winter in the outlying areas South of the big important cities (important in Western Eyes, but no so important to the nomadic Taliban) -- giving up on the cities which aren't the Taliban forte anyway.
2)  Leave behind some provocateurs to harass, embarrass and on occasion obliterate cocky Northern Alliance and quite possibly take advantage of  lax security of cocky U.S. Forces.
3)  Now bring out the chemical weapons hoarded for just the right moment to strike the literally and totally unprotected Northern Alliance.  For instance a mustard gas attack on Northern Alliance would reap huge casualties to a force with few gas masks and certainly no bio-chem suits or training
4)  Got a dirty little nuclear waste dispersal bomb?  Good time to use it now
5)  Divide Afghanistan into two separate states in that all too common North/South strata we have seen all too often in ideological civil splits of countries (North Korea/South Korea, Mainland China/Taiwan, North Vietnam/South Vietnam)

Flash forward in time to six months from now.

The U.S. and British ground forces, facing increasing numbers of Taliban recruits are the only survivors of a devastating mustard gas canister attack all across the front.  Advancing in a bold stroke, U.S. troops encounter well established fortified line in key areas.  After three months with no progress, the U.N. announces a demarcation line dividing Afghanistan into North Afghan and South Afghan, called Taliban by the forces who have strategically withdrawn there and held every major strategic point despite six months of efforts by the Collation to force them out.

How to Prevent this Potential Catastrophe?

Well it is simple from our simple minded approach to affairs of the world.  Don't go there girlfriend!  Seriously, a methodical application of U.S., French, German, and British troops bolstered by a matching number of U.N. forces should carefully inspect every nook and crannies in the Afghan hills as they slowly bolster, reinforce and secure objectives along the roads and territories leading South.  NATO bio-chem setups should be issued to Northern Alliance folks and training commence immediately, with NATO NCOs sprinkled about the Northern Alliance front line to call the warning and drive the NA troops to suit up upon detection of agents.    Mine sweeping, explosive caches and perhaps radiation detection efforts should be a paramount concern in the March south.  Certainly mobility is key, and MILNET believes NATO armored divisions should be deployed at emergency pace to spearhead the advance south, since NATO armor is well practiced and equipped to deal with NBC events along the route.

And to hell with diplomacy at the moment.  Let's take and secure, ala Georgie Patton style, sweeping down with armor and cutting off the arms of the Taliban that may be hiding under the sand and then carefully follow up with detection, disarmament, and sanitization of any nasty surprises we encounter.

We at MILNET do not want to be forced to report NBC casualties or sudden surprise attacks by Taliban when we can be prepared RIGHT NOW by listening to that little voice of prudent military caution, "Go fast Georgie, but make sure force protection is 100% and redundant.

If you've ever listened, Mr. President, now is the time.  Give the DoD their goals, "advance, protect, and secure" and then let them at it, please don't become a quarterback sitting back home while our guys and our new allies the Northern Alliance are sacrificed to the holy god of political expediency and PR.  Do not do a Bill Clinton.  Nahh, didn't think you would, GW.
 

© Copyright 2001, Michael Crawford - MILNET

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